Watched GOT last night so figured I wanted to do a write up on Felice “Cersei Lannister” Herring vs Paige “Daenerys, Margaery, Sansa or whoever” VanZant
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WLXIFSDpdyM
“then comes another, a younger and more beautiful, to cast you down...”
Felice Herring is 30 years old, has a decentish record for 10-5 with a notable win over, ehh, Jessica Rakoczy (1-4) back in 2010, Lisa Ellis (15-9) in her last fight and two wins over Heather Jo Clark (7-4). She tends to beat up cans and clearly over matched opponents, she was -380 in her last fight and every time she is not been a huge favourite she has loses according to bestfightodds. She's had a handful of opportunities to make it big, including fights against former weight class champ Carla Esparza, a fight with Tecia Torres back in Invicta 7 that might've led to a title shoot with a win and her recent TUF-run, all of which have ended in defeat. Havn't watched the Esparza fight since it's so long ago, but let's just say that she didn't look like someone who preforms under pressure in the other fights. She does, however, keep in the spotlight by not shitting the bed against lower level opponents and, eh, just google Felice Herring pictures and you'll understand.
Paige VanZant is 21 years old with a 5-1 record and a win over Kailin Curran. She's very popular in social media due to being pretty and likeable in general. I've only watched her two fights in Invicta/UFC due to the rest being against tomato cans as far as records go (which is fine for a young fighter with few fights). As far as I can tell she's done a bunch of dancing and gymnastic and then went straight into MMA at the age of 15 without any other fighting background, which is somewhat apparent in her fights since she is well-ish rounded and not exceptional in any area except for the pace she sets.
They have one common opponent in Teica Torres, VZ fought her early in 2013 and Herring late in 2013. Both lost by fairly clear decisions.
VS has a higher pace and better conditioning, which will probably be a factor as Herring is not much of a finisher. Outside of her sub over Ellis in her last fight she has gone to decision eight fights in a row (TUF excluded) pretty much losing to the good fighters. VZ also has a good chin and took some huge shots from Torres without any reaction at all. VZ also looked like she was hard as nails when it came to defending submissions, Torres had her in some bad spots but VS did not let go and while a better BJJ-artist then Torres probably would've got her due to her power before skill-approach, I'm not sure that Herring has the grappling to pull of a sub.
Herring on the other hand has a very nice attribute in that no matter the amount of bullshit that she tells before the fight, she's not delusional and knows where her strengths lies. Vs Torres she talked a lot of smack about how Torres was tailor made for her and how she could open up her striking, then she goes for a sloppy 1-2 and a takedown vs a 2-1 fighter with wins over total unknowns and a combined one (1!) TKO in 7 ammy and 2 pro fights. For a 28-5 kickboxer, that's some fairly impressive lack of pride.
Herring will thus probably go for takedowns, and so far VZ has not shown a lot of good TDD. In fact, I'd say that's her weakest part of the game. She is, however, very active from guard and goes for sub attempts and scrambles a lot. In my opinion Herring will probably not be able to do much on the ground, even though she might very well get a bunch of nice positions and might steal the first round with it. However, a few months with team alpha male might sharpen her TDD and while Herring has decent takedowns she lacks enough drive to make them really good. Also, going by how they both looked against Torres a 18 y/o VZ actually looked much stronger and in my opinion won the clinch fighting while Herring got ROFLPWNed. There might very well be a strength issue here despite Herring being a older and bigger fighter.
I actually faded VZ in her last fight without watching tape just due to some injuries and other issues she reportedly had, which was dumb. This time she's as far as I can tell 100% healthy, at a very good camp in Team Alpha Male and probably in a decent place mentally given that everyone seems to like her, she's probably secure as far as money goes (she's talked about how her family made financial sacrifices to make sure she could fight etc) and around positive people. I think this will lead to a very good performance on her part. For reference, see how her corner men treats her during her last fight. Very little actual advice, just a lot of “you're doing good, it's going so well” and positive energy all around. Given that they know what they're doing that's probably what she needs.
Overall I feel that Herring has a few pathways to victory, she could possibly get takedowns and steal rounds or maybe look up a sub in a scramble since VZ isn't very polished yet. The much more likely scenario is however that the fight looks even-ish for a round before VZ's pace pays off and she takes over the fight. Given -200 or better I think the value is on the younger fighter that gets much better from fight to fight, trains at a better team and seems to have better strength and conditioning.
One possible problem is that even though VZ looked better vs Torres, the fights where almost a year apart and Torres might've just gotten better/stronger/faster. While I don't believe she does anything, people did talk about her possibly being on something and while I wouldn't put much stock in that she might've just figured out better ways to train or whatever. That could've screwed up the picture a bit.
My book has not released the lines yet, but except for the ML I will look at the VZ by sub prop, she goes for a ton of subs and Feliece tends to leave her head out when she goes for TD (she got stuck for a while in attempts vs both Clark and someone else I watched tape on, can't remember which one). That can't be healthy against someone who trains at Alpha Male.
