Official UFN 68 Betting Thread - Post Your Bets!

[Card]

Caceres vs. Rivera - what say you?

 

[efalk1322]

Pre-fight plays, kept it pretty light.

Singles:
1u Hendo +150
1u Rothwell +150
1.36u Meideros +150
1u Ortega +150
1u NOT Lewis ITD -120
1u Collier +150
.8u Quinonez +150

Parlays:
1.2u Soto + open spot
1.2u Rivera + Dodgers(hit)
.8u Akhmedov + Giants(hit)
1u Wade + Proctor

BOL everyone. See ya in a few hours!

 

[HeyBoone]

1u decisions o5.5 +160 (spread out o5.5, o6.5, 7.5, etc)

O9.5 decisions is freakin +20100....

Are those props on 5Dimes? I would really like to bet on them...

k, ufn 68 bets finalized

Spoiler

ufn 68 Risk: 1,933.73
Hendo: 25 parlays / O1.5: 145 for 100 / Boetsch
Rothwell DEC: 25 for 210.25 / DEC: 50 for 175 / O1.5: 77.25 for 75 / Mitrione
Medeiros +150: 100 for 150 / Poirier
Tavares/Ortega: idk
Birchak +170: 100 for 170 / Birchak DEC: 50 for 213.50 / O2.5: 101.50 for 70 / Soto
Caceres -117: 117.48 for 100 / Rivera
Jordan -114: 227 for 200 - 25 parlays / Jordan SUB: 20 for 312.80 / Lewis
Ebersole: 25 parlays / O2.5: 150 parlays / Akhmedov
Giagos +152: 150 for 227.50 - 25 parlays / Giagos DEC: 50 for 175 / O1.5: 100 parlay / Wade
Edwards SUB: 20 for 140.20 / Proctor
Collier +165: 100 for 165 - 25 parlays / O1.5: 62.50 for 50 / Abreu
Quinones +170: 200 for 340 - 25 parlays / Morales
props
DEC O5.5: 63 for 100.80
DEC O6.5: 30 for 126.30
DEC O7.5: 15 for 180.30
DEC O8.5: 10 for 382.50
DEC O9.5: 5 for 1,005
FOTN: soto-birchak: 15 for 97.50
parlays
100 for 130.30 ebersole-akhmedov O2.5 -196 & wade-giagos O1.5 -191
50 for 87.64 ebersole-akhmedov O2.5 -195 & aldo -122 (ufc 189)
50 RR for 622.66: hendo/ jordan/ ebersole/ giagos/ collier/ quinonez
---

i'm set. hopefully i don't feel like an ass after the two fight pass fights as per usual, would suck to have to climb out of another 4u hole etc.

basically nothing on tavares-ortega. i just have no idea. and almost nothing on edwards-proctor. the sub prop was dumb (unless it wins, haha)

i swear i'm feelin good about decisions over tonight... monster score if 10 of the 12 fights go to the judges

(nervous about birchak, caceres, and quinonez bets)

GL, all

I like your bets and it's funny that you are most nervous about Birchak, Caceres, and Quinonez because I agree with everything other than those. Not to say they are bad bets or anything, those are close fights.

You are a little heavy on Quinonez though, is it due to the potential rough weight cut from Morales? From what I saw Morales has decent TDD and really strong kicks while Quinonez kind of walks forward chin up in the air and is a decent grappler but not a super explosive wrestler or anything.

BOL!

 

[efalk1322]

Caceres vs. Rivera - what say you?

Rivera has the better striking and I'm not sure if BLR can take him down and use his grappling advantage. Rivera was winning that Faber fight before the eye poke, and was defending Fabers TD's well. BLR has been known to be slightly chinny, though he recovers well, and Rivera is one of the most powerful dudes at 135.

 

[efalk1322]

k, ufn 68 bets finalized

Spoiler

ufn 68 Risk: 1,933.73
Hendo: 25 parlays / O1.5: 145 for 100 / Boetsch
Rothwell DEC: 25 for 210.25 / DEC: 50 for 175 / O1.5: 77.25 for 75 / Mitrione
Medeiros +150: 100 for 150 / Poirier
Tavares/Ortega: idk
Birchak +170: 100 for 170 / Birchak DEC: 50 for 213.50 / O2.5: 101.50 for 70 / Soto
Caceres -117: 117.48 for 100 / Rivera
Jordan -114: 227 for 200 - 25 parlays / Jordan SUB: 20 for 312.80 / Lewis
Ebersole: 25 parlays / O2.5: 150 parlays / Akhmedov
Giagos +152: 150 for 227.50 - 25 parlays / Giagos DEC: 50 for 175 / O1.5: 100 parlay / Wade
Edwards SUB: 20 for 140.20 / Proctor
Collier +165: 100 for 165 - 25 parlays / O1.5: 62.50 for 50 / Abreu
Quinones +170: 200 for 340 - 25 parlays / Morales
props
DEC O5.5: 63 for 100.80
DEC O6.5: 30 for 126.30
DEC O7.5: 15 for 180.30
DEC O8.5: 10 for 382.50
DEC O9.5: 5 for 1,005
FOTN: soto-birchak: 15 for 97.50
parlays
100 for 130.30 ebersole-akhmedov O2.5 -196 & wade-giagos O1.5 -191
50 for 87.64 ebersole-akhmedov O2.5 -195 & aldo -122 (ufc 189)
50 RR for 622.66: hendo/ jordan/ ebersole/ giagos/ collier/ quinonez
---

i'm set. hopefully i don't feel like an ass after the two fight pass fights as per usual, would suck to have to climb out of another 4u hole etc.

basically nothing on tavares-ortega. i just have no idea. and almost nothing on edwards-proctor. the sub prop was dumb (unless it wins, haha)

i swear i'm feelin good about decisions over tonight... monster score if 10 of the 12 fights go to the judges

(nervous about birchak, caceres, and quinonez bets)

GL, all

With you on the fight pass fights, I think we got some good value on the dogs. On Soto and Rivera though.

 

[chemmy]

At +210 I think Yancy Medeiros is definitely worth a shot tonight. I love Poirier's style, but Medeiros is bigger and more physical than Poirier and I'd say he is the better overall striker. While Poirier fought most of his career at 145 lbs, Yancy started his at 205 lbs and slowly dropped divisions until he found a home at 155 lbs. He's a few inches taller than Poirier and also has a 4 inch reach advantage, which I think will be apparent in this fight. Poirier has the advantage on the mat, especially with submissions, but I'm not so sure that they'll spend much time there. Yancy's counter-wrestling is fairly tight and Poirier wasn't exactly a dynamic wrestler at 145 lbs. He has also never been one to shy away from a shootout, which I have to think would favour Medeiros.

This is a really tough style matchup for Poirier and I think he's being overvalued in this fight. If Brookins and Brandao both managed to rock him, I think there's a good chance that Yancy can do the same but finish the job.

Another thing that I'm taking into account is that Medeiros will be even bigger than usual. He missed weight by over 3lbs, which is usually a red flag for me, but in this case he stopped cutting hours before the weigh ins and opted to take the 20% fine instead so I don't expect it to play a major part in this scrap unless he has a flu or something. Medeiros has also been training with the Diaz brothers for years now, which can't hurt his cardio or submission awareness.

Poirier is great in scrambles and has some really slick submission skills, but I think Medeiros can match his pace and wear him down with his size/power. I honestly think this fight is about 50/50, so at almost +210 I definitely think there's value on Medeiros.

 

[Sham5916910]

First card UFC card i have not bet on as saving myself for lb such a well matched card. I did put

 

[mmaHobbyist]

Wow 3 hr away from first fight, hardly any line movement. Is there a big sport over shadowing the UFC?

 

[efalk1322]

Wow 3 hr away from first fight, hardly any line movement. Is there a big sport over shadowing the UFC?

champions league final and belmont

 

[EzFlyer]

With you on the fight pass fights, I think we got some good value on the dogs. On Soto and Rivera though.

I did 2u caceres at start, but I wish I did Nada atm. I think Rivera is gonna win the first round...would rather bet caceres after first if at all. I hedged off 1u from opener as such. Too big of a price hit to hedge more.

 

[Deleted member 448575]

mmaoddsbreaker staff picks are out.

Interesting to see 6 of 9 are picking Caceres.

 

[EzFlyer]

Are those props on 5Dimes? I would really like to bet on them...



I like your bets and it's funny that you are most nervous about Birchak, Caceres, and Quinonez because I agree with everything other than those. Not to say they are bad bets or anything, those are close fights.

You are a little heavy on Quinonez though, is it due to the potential rough weight cut from Morales? From what I saw Morales has decent TDD and really strong kicks while Quinonez kind of walks forward chin up in the air and is a decent grappler but not a super explosive wrestler or anything.

BOL!

Yep, 5d

I hear your concerns on quinonez. I'm honestly thinking of hedging back to 1.5 or even 1u.

Basically, to answer your question, I did 2u on opener +175. Partially expected line to drop, but also I think hes the clearly more well rounded fighter.

I did 3rd unit at weighins, again, expecting it to drop. I think the reason it hasn't is because most people don't know shit about these two...

I hedged back to 2u today when I was evaluating my plays overall today. Didn't think this fight merited being my sole 3u play, heh. We still do have a case where one fighter has more ways to win and is the dog... And his opponent missed weight and failed to make it afterwards... Its still a decent spot.

If it was live bettable, I'd be more comfortable than I am.

 

[HeyBoone]

I did 2u caceres at start, but I wish I did Nada atm. I think Rivera is gonna win the first round...would rather bet caceres after first if at all. I hedged off 1u from opener as such. Too big of a price hit to hedge more.

Depending on how BLR looks during the first I might hedge a little on my 4u since like you I think Rivera wins the first but BLR might show enough to be worth hedging when he's likely nice +odds between rounds.

 

[mmaHobbyist]

champions league final and belmont

I see, still have 2:45 minutes to go, I hope they didn't forget about the UFC. Extremely line movement creates extreme value. Those crazy odd at close line are awesome, hope they still comes.

 

[ufcbetter604]

Is anyone else on Joe Proctor here? His striking looked very crisp in the Yancy fight, it was an even fight until he got caught. Joe is a Big light weight.

Edwards is off a long lay off and quite frankly hes not that good.

 

[Jae Gibbz]

Is anyone else on Joe Proctor here? His striking looked very crisp in the Yancy fight, it was an even fight until he got caught. Joe is a Big light weight.

Edwards is off a long lay off and quite frankly hes not that good.

I'm on Proctor but got on him early at -179 and that's about as high as I was willing to pay. Around -210 I'm not sure if he's bettable. If you do bet Proctor, you should bet Edwards Sub as a hedge

EDIT: You can also bet Proctor SU and by DEC which is the way I see him most likely winning.

 

[ufcbetter604]

Is anyone else on Joe Proctor here? His striking looked very crisp in the Yancy fight, it was an even fight until he got caught. Joe is a Big light weight.

Edwards is off a long lay off and quite frankly hes not that good.

 

[Gametheory]

I am on Rivera. His height worries me, but he looked great against Faber, and Caceres has looked pretty badly.
And I am not sure Caceres will get Rivera down easily.

 

[OneWarrior1]

Cathal Pendred is on next week's card. Gotta bet that luckbox.

 

[arrelione]

Wanna have a tiny bet for action on the first fight?,Anyone betting the first fight? Wanna tail for 10$