UFN 99 - Hall vs Mousasi 2 - Ireland

[MMA Goodfella]

I love mousasi, but I don't agree with him or anyone calling it a fluke ... It was absolutely brilliantly executed... The knee after the spinning back kick was so brutal...

It wasn't some random injury, it wasn't a lucky punch that hit him behind the head awkwardly or something.. it was an incredible set of moves timed perfectly

Although I never like to say any punch or kick is lucky because that shot is going where you aim for it to, and if you hit the intended target it isn't a fluke. That said, what was fluky about the win for Hall was that he was getting absolutely destroyed in opening-round and treated like an amateur for every second that went by. All the way up until he landed that one shot. Now while it was in a fluke per se, I do believe that it had a lot to do with Mousassi getting overconfident and complacent leading to an apathetic takedown where he thought he was not in any danger whatsoever. Of course overconfidence often leads to disasters and that's when Uriah unleashed the fucking boom.

The kinetic energy that Uriah can generate from his tightly wound springing coil like spinning techniques is absolutely vicious. I believe that Mousassi just didn't give Hall the respect that he deserved. I will liken it to the Matt Serra versus GSP one fight. Certainly Serra was throwing punches where intended for them to land but if GSP had been more careful the chances of that happening were about 10% or less. The better fighter didn't win the first time but I believe we like with GSP we see a much more patient and calculated fighter in the rematch. I believe Mousassi will use that long jab as he pumps and pumps it in Uriah's face and then looks for the finish late if it materializes.

 

[Agent Mulder]

Hmmm. Godbeer is pretty good. Honestly, if his decision like is something retarded like I'm kind of expecting (+8xx to +1xxx) I'm going to have to heavily consider it.

Also agree with those earlier pointing out the over

I'm only worried about the leg kicks, that's Godbeers best weapon for sure. I think Ledet will see the hands coming from a mile away.

 

[rille31]

Hall / Mousasi goes 5 round distance +260

moose decision +221

 

[Agent Mulder]

Not sure why so many ITT like Magomed here. He got stuck on the ground for a long time in r1 vs Hallman. He did hit a couple of reversals early in the fight but will he be able to do it against Lee as the fight goes on?
He looked pretty damned gassed in round 2 vs Hallman, he had his hands down at waist level the whole round. Hallman could have won that fight if the doctor didnt stop it due to that cut.
I'd rather take Magomed r1 rather than ML because I think Lee takes over from r2 and forward. Really doubt a gassed Magomed can stop the TD.
I fully expect Lee to bring a grappling heavy game plan like he did in his last fight vs Matthews.

 

[Sham5916910]

Not sure why so many ITT like Magomed here. He got stuck on the ground for a long time in r1 vs Hallman. He did hit a couple of reversals early in the fight but will he be able to do it against Lee as the fight goes on?
He looked pretty damned gassed in round 2 vs Hallman, he had his hands down at waist level the whole round. Hallman could have won that fight if the doctor didnt stop it due to that cut.
I'd rather take Magomed r1 rather than ML because I think Lee takes over from r2 and forward. Really doubt a gassed Magomed can stop the TD.
I fully expect Lee to bring a grappling heavy game plan like he did in his last fight vs Matthews.

I've not watched tape but i remember the Hallmann fight being very close and a war of attrition. A win over Proctor is nothing special either. I was pretty high on Lee until his chin issues reared their head against Santos and Efrain.

 

[Agent Mulder]

I've not watched tape but i remember the Hallmann fight being very close and a war of attrition. A win over Proctor is nothing special either. I was pretty high on Lee until his chin issues reared their head against Santos and Efrain.

Yeah the chin is a concern for me as well. I'll most likely play Lee ML hedged with Magomed r1.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I think your analysis is fair but for some reason I'm still seeing a Ross Pearson win by split decision so I bet him straight at -115 and the over 2½ in parlays. I also like your lean with Gamburyan & Eduardo. I'm on Manny at +145 and the under 2½ at +130. That under of course covers Manny getting a sub or Eduardo getting a KO before the middle of the third round, the two most likely ways this ends early.

I think the under is very very very likely to cash with Manny and Edoardo. That's a very good line getting that dog odds. I can understand you wanting to put money on Ross given his advantages with his slick stand up, but I really think this is going to be a case where Stevie is going to be too much, too fast, to athletic and just a changing of the guard so to speak. I'm really high on Stevie and by all accounts he's training his ass off and looking better and better each session and has a fire under his ass to get by that win from Alan Patrick. The best bet and my mind is the over 2.5 though. Maybe a sprinkle on a Stevie Ray knock out.

i reckon Ward is a certainty, Conor too which is the reason for the big bet there.

Bro, I really think this is going to be a very tough fight for both guys and kovalev could just as easily turn Andre Ward's lights off. I do favor ward to win a unanimous decision using his slick boxing and staying out of range of those nuclear missiles that will be fired his why, but Sergey has an 84% knock out ratio and it only takes one shot to put his opponent to sleep. Ward had a couple of wars with Carl Froch coupled with myriad injuries which have me tempted to bet Kovalev here. But Ward is soooooo slick defensively and fundamentally sound coupled with an awesome counter striking and aggressive punching game that it's hard to bet against him versus anyone at this point...

If you or anyone interested in this match sees Blunt Trauma ITT you might ask him about this fight, my man BT knows his boxing. BOL

 

[MMA Goodfella]

i reckon Ward is a certainty, Conor too which is the reason for the big bet there.

Bro, I really think this is going to be a very tough fight for both men and kovalev could just as easily turn Andre Ward's lights off. I do favor ward to win a unanimous decision using his slick boxing and staying out of range of those nuclear missiles that will be fired his way, but Sergey has an 84% knock out ratio and it only takes one shot to put his opponent to sleep.

Ward had a couple of wars with Carl Froch which showed two pertinent things: #1. That he is as good a boxer as it gets in today's game, he can come back from adversity, and he can take a shot and #2. It showed that he could be hit which is a bit disconcerting when you are playing him against someone with the punching power of Sergey. So these qualities and foibles cut both ways. Plus, Sergey is a much better talent than Froch is by a good margin. What's more, couple this with the myriad injuries which SOG has suffered and it ".ALMOST" has me tempted to bet Sir Gay here.

But BOL

I think someone mentioned that he's training in Scotland for this fight for what I assume to be financial reasons. He didn't do Tristar for his last fight either he looked lost at what to do when facing another southpaw and he was spending too much time trying to submit a BJJ black belt off his back which is pretty bad IQ.

I thought he's looked great thus far and his hands have looked great but he's facing his best striker to date in Ross Pearson.

Ross is no good against grapplers and Ray isn't much of a wrestler.

Ross is still a sharp striker and he's fought some of the best LWs. Best thing Ray's got going for him is that he's a southpaw and Ross has a pretty good left hook that he loves to use against orthodox fighters.

I'm also on Manny but I'll temper my plays on that baldy he's pretty close to being on his way out too.

Like I said, Pearson could very well win this fight as he has the slicker stand up, but he also has been very apathetic lately not putting much volume out which has cost him decision after decision. He was in close fights with his last six opponents either losing them or getting a win by split decision. He got out struck by Trinaldo, Laprise was toe-to-toe with him. Dunham got the better of the exchanges and Felder was right there. Meanwhile he got starched by Al Iaquinta. Plus like I said, though he was robbed, not being able to completely shut Diego down in the striking is worrisome too. I believe Ray's boxing is getting better and better and we didn't get to see that massive improvement last time out because he was in Brazil facing off against the wet blanket of the division. But I will go back and do some more research see if I change my mind.

 

[MMA Goodfella]

Can't remember who asked, maybe at @Officer_Brown ??regarding Godbeer and Ledet

Anyhow, I can't find who asked but I like lead here. Both are good boxers but Ledet is a more technical pugilist and he has a more diverse of five striking game. Specifically Ledet will throw kicks to all levels and when Godbeer punches he sits down heavy on the lead leg which exposes him to be smashed with that outside LLK. The thing with Godbeer is that he has such power it only takes one shot to get the win. That said, Ledet also has more variety in his mixed martial arts repertoire as he will actually attempt takedowns and work for submissions while Mark is almost exclusively a boxer with heavy hands ... I believe that this one goes over 1.5 andLedet the victory.

 

[rille31]

at the current price you have to give ray atleast 55% chance of winning for a bet to make sense, he is +100 wich is a 50% implied chance of winning

 

[MMA Goodfella]

I seriously doubt lurking Kalikas had anything to do with Jack's opener. Anyone who isn't a dumbass European bookie should've known he'd open around where he did

Yo JB, don't sell us short brother, I know for a fact 100% that Nick checks this thread and SBR and a few others to get a early "feeling" of where the public is. Like I know this as in 100% not a if or AND or maybe... I know this as in I talk to someone who works for him and is a good friend. I would be more specific but I don't know if they want me saying their name or not. Nevertheless, it doesn't have a substantial impact because most of European betting sites open first although 5D is usually the most spot on. But TRUST me homie, this thread gets looked at by a few whales and line setters. One day I'll tell you much more. A specific story that originated from this thread – when it was in the heavies – that made a substantial change to a line being set.

 

[Sham5916910]

Yo JB, don't sell us short brother, I know for a fact 100% but Nick checks this thread and SBR an a few others to get a feeling of where the public is. Like I know at 100% as in I talk to someone who works for him and is a good friend. I would be more specific but I don't know if they want me saying their name or not. Nevertheless, it doesn't have a substantial impact because most of European betting sites open first although 5D is usually the most spot on.

There we have it guys confirmation from GF! I don't agree that European sites open odds first tho. Betsafe open the odd line here or there first and get it terribly wrong most the time lol! But the other sites all wait for 5D.

Edit: I notice Sporting Bet have been opening lines a lot first lately but unfortunately they don't accept Brits.

 

[northsofia]

I dont know about the others but b365, betfair and bwin are all waiting the other non-euro bookies to open odds and then they open theirs

 

[Brick Top]

5dimes opens 95% of the time

 

[BigNick100]

Now getting around to this card.

For now I'm like Ledet for sure. He has nice boxing and footwork, and he uses that jab very good. I was impressed with how much he jabbed and used it effectively. The jab is a underrated skill people don't use enough in MMA. His opponent Godbeer seems to be slower, which plays in the hands of Ledet. I see Ledet staying on the outside and picking apart Godbeer. He will be to slow for Ledet. Small chance Godbeer can land the KO in the first, but I'm not even going to hedge it. I'm fairly confident in Ledet.

Just going to update my record and post it here. Been on a roll with the picking underdogs since I started keeping track. I'm eyeing Ray as my main underdog so far, but I still have to do some more breakdown until I pick Ray for sure.

Conor - W = 1-0
Glover - L = 1-1
Pettis - W = 2-1
Maia - W = 3-1
Barnett - W = 4-1
Stipe - W = 5-1
Brunson - W = 6-1
Muhammad - W = 7-1
Dunham - W = 8-1
Poirier - L = 8-2
Randy Brown - W = 9-2
Franca - L = 9-3
Alan Patrick - W - 10-4
Erick Silva - W = 11-4
Santos - L = 11-5
Nelson - W = 12-5
Cyborg - W = 13-5
Marquart - W = 14-5
Burkman - L = 14-6
Brooks - L = 14-7
Dodson - L = 14-8
Danny Roberts - L = 14-9
Bisbing - W = 15-9
Nakamura - L - = 15-10
LAMAS - w - 16-10
BARZOLA - W - 17-10
REYES - W - 18-10
RDA - L - 18-11
WOODLEY - DRAW - 18-11-1
ROMERO - W - 19 -11-1
MILLER - W - 20-11-1
JJ - W - 21-11-1
NATAL - L - 21-12-1

Overall = 21-12-1 for %63.6 Success

Underdog picks -
Erick Silva - W
Alan Patrick - W
Marquart - W
MILLER - W
ROMERO - W
WOODLEY - DRAW
5-0-1 on underdog picks.

 

[Bands]

Now getting around to this card.

For now I'm like Ledet for sure. He has nice boxing and footwork, and he uses that jab very good. I was impressed with how much he jabbed and used it effectively. The jab is a underrated skill people don't use enough in MMA. His opponent Godbeer seems to be slower, which plays in the hands of Ledet. I see Ledet staying on the outside and picking apart Godbeer. He will be to slow for Ledet. Small chance Godbeer can land the KO in the first, but I'm not even going to hedge it. I'm fairly confident in Ledet.

Just going to update my record and post it here. Been on a roll with the picking underdogs since I started keeping track. I'm eyeing Ray as my main underdog so far, but I still have to do some more breakdown until I pick Ray for sure.

Conor - W = 1-0
Glover - L = 1-1
Pettis - W = 2-1
Maia - W = 3-1
Barnett - W = 4-1
Stipe - W = 5-1
Brunson - W = 6-1
Muhammad - W = 7-1
Dunham - W = 8-1
Poirier - L = 8-2
Randy Brown - W = 9-2
Franca - L = 9-3
Alan Patrick - W - 10-4
Erick Silva - W = 11-4
Santos - L = 11-5
Nelson - W = 12-5
Cyborg - W = 13-5
Marquart - W = 14-5
Burkman - L = 14-6
Brooks - L = 14-7
Dodson - L = 14-8
Danny Roberts - L = 14-9
Bisbing - W = 15-9
Nakamura - L - = 15-10
LAMAS - w - 16-10
BARZOLA - W - 17-10
REYES - W - 18-10
RDA - L - 18-11
WOODLEY - DRAW - 18-11-1
ROMERO - W - 19 -11-1
MILLER - W - 20-11-1
JJ - W - 21-11-1
NATAL - L - 21-12-1

Overall = 21-12-1 for %63.6 Success

Underdog picks -
Erick Silva - W
Alan Patrick - W
Marquart - W
MILLER - W
ROMERO - W
WOODLEY - DRAW
5-0-1 on underdog picks.

Why do you like Ray? at pick em odds I had to take Pearson. Ray has looked good against guys that are no longer in the UFC but Pearson is a step up. Pearson seems to be in a lot of close fights but he's never lost 3 in a row and I think Ray is a big step down from his recent competition.

 

[Bands]

5dimes opens 95% of the time

Do most Bookies just copy 5 dimes' lines?

 

[Monster Meat]

lets goooo 5dimes put up the props on these undercard fights! I want some prop action on a bunch of these

 

[Rebel_LioN]

Yo JB, don't sell us short brother, I know for a fact 100% that Nick checks this thread and SBR and a few others to get a early "feeling" of where the public is. Like I know this as in 100% not a if or AND or maybe... I know this as in I talk to someone who works for him and is a good friend. I would be more specific but I don't know if they want me saying their name or not. Nevertheless, it doesn't have a substantial impact because most of European betting sites open first although 5D is usually the most spot on. But TRUST me homie, this thread gets looked at by a few whales and line setters. One day I'll tell you much more. A specific story that originated from this thread – when it was in the heavies – that made a substantial change to a line being set.

Bout time I spread some bullshit propaganda then

Mike bisping p4p goat, Yoel shitstain Romero has no chance!!

 

[BigNick100]

Why do you like Ray? at pick em odds I had to take Pearson. Ray has looked good against guys that are no longer in the UFC but Pearson is a step up. Pearson seems to be in a lot of close fights but he's never lost 3 in a row and I think Ray is a big step down from his recent competition.

Well I still have to do some research, so I'm not picking Ray just yet. This is a close fight for sure. I like Ray's boxing, that's his best skill set and Pearson is going to stand with him, as Pearson is a stand up fighter as well. I picked Alan Patrick beating Ray in Ray's last fight because I knew he would take down Ray, Ray's weak point. Pearson is going to stand with him, which plays into the hands of Ray. Ross Pearson has been in the UFC for a long time, and while he has faced the better competition, I think he is on the downside of his career. Pearson is 1-3 in his last 4, and 4-6 in his last ten. But he has faced better competition for sure. I will wait for the weigh ins, looking to read articles about how Ray has been training lately and look over more tape before I make my pick on Ray though.

But one bet on this fight I already know I am making is this fight going to a DEC. Putting some money on that for sure, Even maybe making a bet that Ray wins by split decision, because I can see a split decision as well. and looking to maybe bet Ray after I look at the things I mentioned above.

Will give my final picks after the weigh ins. I know most like to make picks when the lines come out to get good odds, but I've been waiting till I see the weighs ins to make the big bets, and I will stay with this approach.