UFN 110 - Lewis vs Hunt - New Zealand

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Hirota +530 @ marathon bet! That's pretty much an automatic 0.5u play for me.
 
TheOneTrueKing said:
at the current odds of 2.25. 20u is actually mathematically correct amount to bet here for maximum bankroll growth IF hunt wins 57% or more. if he wins less than 57% then you would be correct and variance would turn this into a losing play
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Yeah, but there's a tremendous chance of going broke (obviously not completely broke as you're betting %'s of BR but you get the point). That's why most people use Kelly/6-10 for example.
 
i'm gonna tail zee and min bet hooker. although it wasn't one of my targeted fights and i haven't looked into it i think he's right on this. hookers the side here now
 
Had to put a small bet on Hirota at +500 since that's just crazy. Not going with the full unit like Elkins, but can't not play that line.

Edit: wow +535 actually
 
ppl still betting volk -600 lol Hirota +535 now :eek:
 
Thunderflash500 said:
I'm in a foreign country, no computer, and don't feel like figuring out how to upload images with my phone.

Hunt is the better fighter, and the underdog. It's my only bet of the night and anytime soon. If I'm feeling less lazy I can figure out how to upload a picture later.
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Fair enough mate.

Most of us consider this fight to be risky (or very risky.) But if you have total faith in Hunt then who am I to question that. GL sir.
 
Boys we are cleaning the fuck up on Steele and Pearson tonight... Don't spend it all in one place.
 
Hirota up to +535, lol.. so volkanovski is basically already at max Holloway skill level? After beating kasuya? Got it
 
BatBoyJG said:
Boys we are cleaning the fuck up on Steele and Pearson tonight... Don't spend it all in one place.
Click to expand...

Go Hooker!
qwJMG80aUfVKM.gif
 
Sounds like it's going to be a horrific night for a lot of people in Steele doesn't win....
 
BigNick100 said:
4 team parlay I love :

Derek Brunson -280* vs Daniel Kelly
Hooker / Pearson starts round 2 -428*
Not Pichel inside distance -322*
Kunimoto / Ottow starts round 2 -359

$100 to win $180
Click to expand...
Whats your bookie for this markets?
 
I broke down a few fights and the main event



HW: Derrick Lewis vs. Mark Hunt


Holy smokes what a fight! These are two leviathans paired up to do work down under this weekend and it should end in someone needing smelling salts. Hunt and Lewis are the type of genetic anomalies that if found today in the La Brea Tar Pits would not be out of place.


Lewis is a gigantic human being that can do all sorts of damage with his heavy hands. One of the few heavyweights on the roster who literally needs to diet in order to make the 265 pound limit, Lewis is an absolute monster of a man that loves brawl. The thing is, he doesn't come from any traditional martial arts background and at 31-years-old is still basically learning on the job.

Physically big, TBB is insanely powerful, but not a very athletic heavyweight and his technique leaves a lot to be desired. He also lacks the type of speed that normally is reserved for top five ranked heavies. Especially his rote striking.

Nevertheless, he gets away with fundamental shortcomings through mediocre opposition and sheer fire power. Much of his success comes from opponents who haven't the foggiest idea of how to angle from off the cage once trapped by the big behemoth. As such, when he is able to put his man's back against the cage he will unload with a steady barrage of bunker busting bombs that have his opponents drowning under the deluge. Additionally, Lewis has the ability to drop his man with a mere grazing blow.

The grappling from the "Beast" is pedestrian at best from both a offense and defense stand point. His wrestling is mediocre and void of any real technique. He rjust simply powers his man to the mat and if grounded himself just gets back to the feet. Doing so without under hooks most often. Ostensibly it's the, "I'm tired of being on my back and it's time to get up" technique.

Mark Hunt is far more technical and has all of the requisite skill sets and problems to create misery for Lewis. In reality this should be a squash match. Hunt has a cavernous deep striking tool set with over two decades of the absolute highest level of experience. Having hoisted trophies in the most prestigious kickboxing organizations in the world — including the fabled K1 Grand Prix — in the late 90s Hunt is as decorated a striker as you get in MMA today. The Samoan throws myriad shots and doesn't discriminate between the head or the body. Specifically his low leg kicks are like tree trunks being swung by Paul Bunyan at his opponents person. His leg-kicks can wreck the lower extremities and change the entire complexion of the fight. Hunt also throws a fantastic rear leg kick that smashes into the midsection like a runaway beer truck. He's a dangerous man.

That said he's on a bit of a down slope. At age 43 this is to be expected. Nevertheless even his recent setbacks to elite opponents were competitive throughout. This even up until the moment he was finished. Namely he was in lockstep with Reem until the knees slowed him to a trickle and ultimately starched him.

The speed has declined and his shots are increasingly more able to get a bead on. He is also in a bad place with his employer which is never good. Still yet, he is capable of competing at a very high-level against the top level and can pull off wins against many of them. This is a fight that will tell us much about where Hunt is at and Lewis can be.

Stylistically, I believe Hunt benefits substantially from this matchup. Striking wise Lewis is completely out of his depth. If Hunt fights smart this is his fight to lose. Travis Browne was able to fold "The Black Beast" over like cheap luggage numerous times with kicks to the body. Incidentally, one of Hunt's best weapons is throwing this exact technique — except with a ton more steam behind it.

Lewis must have sewn up this canyon sized hole in his game or Hunt is going to exploits.

If Hunt remains poised and technical, using his fundamentally sound kickboxing, he should be able to box circles around an infinitely lower quality striker. However, if he hasn't taken those fight seriously as some of intimated, he is going to be on the wrong end of a Black Beast one man bomb squad.

One more time for the hometown crowd. Hunt reverse engineers the Travis Browne game plan and deploys his roundhouse kick's to the chassis of the Black Beast for TKO win.

Prediction: Hunt by TKO / Over 1.5 / TBB round 3 and 4



WW: Kiichi Kunimoto vs. Zak Ottow


Break out the popcorn! Then set it aside for the main event because you won't be needing it here. Indeed, this fight has the potential to be ass dull as dish water. In fact, if that is as bad as it gets I'll be modestly happy.

Kunimoto had a 3-fight win streak at one time in the UFC as implausible as it is. That said, it was one of the most ridiculous streaks in recent memory. A victory via DQ over Luis Dutra Junior for 12/6 elbows, a submission over the ghost of Daniel Sarafian and a "W" over a faded Richard Walsh Who was running on fumes for almost killing Kunimoto in the first round.

A strapping 170 pounder that likes to put his opponent on their back and work them over from top position, Kunimoto is powerful enough to do just that to a lot of fighters. His physicality is his best asset and if he can get his grappling going he is a tank. However he is a slow footed striker and gets hit far too often. The biggest problem from Kunimoto is that he fights like he doesn't want to be there. Too often you will find him on his back foot and ready to pack things up. Ironically, he is a consistently durable fighter. You just get the implication that sometimes he'd rather be at a Nickelback concert than in the cage.

Ottow is former college football player, and for anyone who knows the sport there is no shock that he is built like the linebacker he played. The former gridiron star turned professional mixed martial artist is himself a bit of a plodding fighter who uses his gorilla strong strength as his foremost staple. Ottow has alternated between 155 and 170 pounds but don't expect him to be overwhelmed physically.

This tilt goes the distance most likely, and it is the American who will win this contest with his superior conditioning and more technical striking..


Prediction: Ottow UD


WW: Luke Jumeau vs. Dominique Steele


In Jumeau you have a super confident young man with some good physical tools. Historically, his biggest weakness has been a propensity to start slow. Just two years ago in the first round, against the mediocre 1-4 Mohammad Mansouri, we had "The Jedi" having a clinic being ran on him before coming back to get the second to scoring knocked out. Once again, in his tilt with Vik Grujic, the 40-year-old UFC veteran was mauling him in the opening stanza prior to succumbing to a mysterious knock out early in round two. Disconcerting if you are a Jumeau bettor, as he is going to get ran over and finished if he comes out flat this weekend.

Jumeau does possess some serious pop in his punches. However his biggest problem is going to be staying on the feet to land them. His takedown defense can't even be classified as serviceable. He has been taken down by almost every fighter he's faced on the regional circuit. What's more, he continuously finds himself a hairs breadth away from being submitted. In fact, he actually has been submitted by UFC fighters Jake Matthews and Li.Jiliang respectively.

Steele is an absolute specimen of a man. A power house wrestle-boxer with dynamite in his hands. The biggest issue with Dom has been his propensity to need a moment to get acclimated to the fight. This liability has been severely detrimental to him. First of all, it puts him behind on score cards early, and second, it leaves him ripe to be caught cold and knocked out. Both have happened. Nevertheless, all of the physical attribute are there and he appears to have turned the corner.

To be honest I don't understand the odds at all. Even at -170 I believe that Dominic still is an excellent bet straight up or as a strong piece to a parlay. Jumeau is a strong fighter himself but he's just outclassed here. Steele has several flaws but Jumeau isn't the man to exploit them.


Prediction: Steele x rear naked choke
 
MMA Goodfella said:
I broke down a few fights and the main event



HW: Derrick Lewis vs. Mark Hunt


Holy smokes what a fight! These are two leviathans paired up to do work down under this weekend and it should end in someone needing smelling salts. Hunt and Lewis are the type of genetic anomalies that if found today in the La Brea Tar Pits would not be out of place.


Lewis is a gigantic human being that can do all sorts of damage with his heavy hands. One of the few heavyweights on the roster who literally needs to diet in order to make the 265 pound limit, Lewis is an absolute monster of a man that loves brawl. The thing is, he doesn't come from any traditional martial arts background and at 31-years-old is still basically learning on the job.

Physically big, TBB is insanely powerful, but not a very athletic heavyweight and his technique leaves a lot to be desired. He also lacks the type of speed that normally is reserved for top five ranked heavies. Especially his rote striking.

Nevertheless, he gets away with fundamental shortcomings through mediocre opposition and sheer fire power. Much of his success comes from opponents who haven't the foggiest idea of how to angle from off the cage once trapped by the big behemoth. As such, when he is able to put his man's back against the cage he will unload with a steady barrage of bunker busting bombs that have his opponents drowning under the deluge. Additionally, Lewis has the ability to drop his man with a mere grazing blow.

The grappling from the "Beast" is pedestrian at best from both a offense and defense stand point. His wrestling is mediocre and void of any real technique. He rjust simply powers his man to the mat and if grounded himself just gets back to the feet. Doing so without under hooks most often. Ostensibly it's the, "I'm tired of being on my back and it's time to get up" technique.

Mark Hunt is far more technical and has all of the requisite skill sets and problems to create misery for Lewis. In reality this should be a squash match. Hunt has a cavernous deep striking tool set with over two decades of the absolute highest level of experience. Having hoisted trophies in the most prestigious kickboxing organizations in the world — including the fabled K1 Grand Prix — in the late 90s Hunt is as decorated a striker as you get in MMA today. The Samoan throws myriad shots and doesn't discriminate between the head or the body. Specifically his low leg kicks are like tree trunks being swung by Paul Bunyan at his opponents person. His leg-kicks can wreck the lower extremities and change the entire complexion of the fight. Hunt also throws a fantastic rear leg kick that smashes into the midsection like a runaway beer truck. He's a dangerous man.

That said he's on a bit of a down slope. At age 43 this is to be expected. Nevertheless even his recent setbacks to elite opponents were competitive throughout. This even up until the moment he was finished. Namely he was in lockstep with Reem until the knees slowed him to a trickle and ultimately starched him.

The speed has declined and his shots are increasingly more able to get a bead on. He is also in a bad place with his employer which is never good. Still yet, he is capable of competing at a very high-level against the top level and can pull off wins against many of them. This is a fight that will tell us much about where Hunt is at and Lewis can be.

Stylistically, I believe Hunt benefits substantially from this matchup. Striking wise Lewis is completely out of his depth. If Hunt fights smart this is his fight to lose. Travis Browne was able to fold "The Black Beast" over like cheap luggage numerous times with kicks to the body. Incidentally, one of Hunt's best weapons is throwing this exact technique — except with a ton more steam behind it.

Lewis must have sewn up this canyon sized hole in his game or Hunt is going to exploits.

If Hunt remains poised and technical, using his fundamentally sound kickboxing, he should be able to box circles around an infinitely lower quality striker. However, if he hasn't taken those fight seriously as some of intimated, he is going to be on the wrong end of a Black Beast one man bomb squad.

One more time for the hometown crowd. Hunt reverse engineers the Travis Browne game plan and deploys his roundhouse kick's to the chassis of the Black Beast for TKO win.

Prediction: Hunt by TKO / Over 1.5 / TBB round 3 and 4



WW: Kiichi Kunimoto vs. Zak Ottow


Break out the popcorn! Then set it aside for the main event because you won't be needing it here. Indeed, this fight has the potential to be ass dull as dish water. In fact, if that is as bad as it gets I'll be modestly happy.

Kunimoto had a 3-fight win streak at one time in the UFC as implausible as it is. That said, it was one of the most ridiculous streaks in recent memory. A victory via DQ over Luis Dutra Junior for 12/6 elbows, a submission over the ghost of Daniel Sarafian and a "W" over a faded Richard Walsh Who was running on fumes for almost killing Kunimoto in the first round.

A strapping 170 pounder that likes to put his opponent on their back and work them over from top position, Kunimoto is powerful enough to do just that to a lot of fighters. His physicality is his best asset and if he can get his grappling going he is a tank. However he is a slow footed striker and gets hit far too often. The biggest problem from Kunimoto is that he fights like he doesn't want to be there. Too often you will find him on his back foot and ready to pack things up. Ironically, he is a consistently durable fighter. You just get the implication that sometimes he'd rather be at a Nickelback concert than in the cage.

Ottow is former college football player, and for anyone who knows the sport there is no shock that he is built like the linebacker he played. The former gridiron star turned professional mixed martial artist is himself a bit of a plodding fighter who uses his gorilla strong strength as his foremost staple. Ottow has alternated between 155 and 170 pounds but don't expect him to be overwhelmed physically.

This tilt goes the distance most likely, and it is the American who will win this contest with his superior conditioning and more technical striking..


Prediction: Ottow UD


WW: Luke Jumeau vs. Dominique Steele


In Jumeau you have a super confident young man with some good physical tools. Historically, his biggest weakness has been a propensity to start slow. Just two years ago in the first round, against the mediocre 1-4 Mohammad Mansouri, we had "The Jedi" having a clinic being ran on him before coming back to get the second to scoring knocked out. Once again, in his tilt with Vik Grujic, the 40-year-old UFC veteran was mauling him in the opening stanza prior to succumbing to a mysterious knock out early in round two. Disconcerting if you are a Jumeau bettor, as he is going to get ran over and finished if he comes out flat this weekend.

Jumeau does possess some serious pop in his punches. However his biggest problem is going to be staying on the feet to land them. His takedown defense can't even be classified as serviceable. He has been taken down by almost every fighter he's faced on the regional circuit. What's more, he continuously finds himself a hairs breadth away from being submitted. In fact, he actually has been submitted by UFC fighters Jake Matthews and Li.Jiliang respectively.

Steele is an absolute specimen of a man. A power house wrestle-boxer with dynamite in his hands. The biggest issue with Dom has been his propensity to need a moment to get acclimated to the fight. This liability has been severely detrimental to him. First of all, it puts him behind on score cards early, and second, it leaves him ripe to be caught cold and knocked out. Both have happened. Nevertheless, all of the physical attribute are there and he appears to have turned the corner.

To be honest I don't understand the odds at all. Even at -170 I believe that Dominic still is an excellent bet straight up or as a strong piece to a parlay. Jumeau is a strong fighter himself but he's just outclassed here. Steele has several flaws but Jumeau isn't the man to exploit them.


Prediction: Steele x rear naked choke
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BTW :

I had an opportunity to watch additional footage on Ashkan and I'm not anywhere near as confident as I was in his role as the underdog. It was mainly a fade on Moraga but even now I am likely going to sit on the sidelines. Ashkan just has too feeble of takedown defense if Moraga wants to make it a wrestling/grappling match.


I do like Hookers price (Hi-Yo!) and was think he can carve Ross up. Upon research it doesn't seem like Ross gives af while Hooker is hungry. (But aren't they all? Ba-Dum-Tsss!!!)
 
Aldrich NSC - think I moved the line to -140. She's tough as nails. Her opponent missed weight and this is strawweight so I'm expecting a push but there's value here imo.

Tim Elliot NSC - line is -161. We thinking Ben kos him? Iirc he changed his style to way more conservative in his last fight.

Damian Brown - I like it at -130ish. He's tough like jerky as seen in the tuck fight against a good grappler. He has a bit of pop in his punches. Opponent has a long layoff.
 
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