UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

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Yep. Here they are.

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There are my bad beats regarding event over/under props and technical decisions... Fucking bullshit
Maybe I shouldn't have brought this old news up, but it's sure to happen again someday and the arguments will erupt again, for what reason I cannot understand. Those fights neither went the distance nor resulted in a 3 round decision, so those bets are rightful losers.That's why my pedantic ass always calls those event props goes distance or does not go distance, and never shorthand it to something else.
 
IDK man, I think Ortega's submission game is one the most dangerous in MMA. Ortega is such an opportunist and I just believe Swanson will give him opportunities over the course of 5 rounds.

Despite all the advantages Swanson has on paper, it could be game over in once this hits the mat. Most of Swanson's losses are by submission, most of Ortega's wins are submissions.

Swanson can win this fight but he needs to fight a very smart fight, he can not afford to give Ortega certain positions. I have a hard time seeing Swanson getting a finish, he's a decision machine as of late. This means he's gotta hang tough for 5 rounds and I just think thats too long, Ortega finds ways to win. I'm not sleeping on Ortega's striking either, it literally looks better every fight.

Again, Swanson can win but he needs to fight a tactical fight which is not what he's know for. He may need to limit a significant portion of his game, no takedowns, no cartwheel kicks, no crazy combinations. By being risk averse he may make less errors but he may also sacrifice some of what makes him such a good fighter.

Ortega's striking has progressed from dumpster fire to wastebin fire across the course of his fights. His submission game is good, but he's not Demian Maia. Every time the community gets behind a usbmission dude as being totally lethal on the mat, Pettis-Moreno happens. I've got a purple belt in BJJ, I know how effective discipline and stalling can be in an MMA context when it comes to not getting your ass subbed. Ortega's UFC subs are 'Brandao massively gassing out and doing something dumb' and 'Moicano going for a shitty double leg'. Tavares survived and won in top control for 2 rounds in their fight, Guida was able to get on top of Ortega.

Swanson's sub losses are against better guys. I think the one that's most similar to what Ortega could do is the Holloway loss, where Cub essentially panic-wrestled into a guillotine. Edgar dad-dicked him for 4.75 rounds before grabbing an unconventional strength sub, Lamas was probably the sub where I'd say he got the most 'out-BJJ'd. I think Lamas' grappling is better than Ortega's, I'd have difficulties rating Ortega's grappling over Knight's at this point. The other subs are more than a decade ago. One of the biggest maxims in my MMA betting is 'Don't take the flashy grappler with no consistent way to get it to the ground'. A discipline, boring Swanson takes this by wide-ass decision IMO. Swanson stayed on his feet against Dias and Kawajiri.

Also, so far as Ortega's chin is concerned, the only massive hitter he's faced is Diego Brandao. I think are building him up to be a lot more than he actually is.
 
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As far as picks I’m picking Alex Perez over CJ de Thomas and Merab over Saenz..

Not a great price on Perez but those two together pay 1:1 and it’s early in the card.

I like the approach that Perez took to get here, 18-4 at 25 y/o, his most recent fight on DW’s he looked like a veteran of the game with his in-between fighting. He strikes well off the break and has great knees in the clinch. I also like that he throws with feints and combinations. CJ ain’t a bad fighter actually but l don’t think he’s going to beat Perez who looks more advanced and UFC ready.

Merab looks raw but I think he’s got some good looks on what UFC competition looks like training @ Serra Longo. Saenz is a grinder but his task is to grind a younger grinder. I think Merab will look more explosive in this fight and he’ll work his way out bad positions in the 15 min span to pick up the W. Can’t say a decision, because I dunno how old 37 is for Frankie.

100/100$
 
I like the approach that Perez took to get here, 18-4 at 25 y/o, his most recent fight on DW’s he looked like a veteran of the game with his in-between fighting. He strikes well off the break and has great knees in the clinch. I also like that he throws with feints and combinations. CJ ain’t a bad fighter actually but l don’t think he’s going to beat Perez who looks more advanced and UFC ready.

I'm also heavy on Perez here. De Tomas got absolutely wrecked on the ground by Inoue. Arguably 10-8'd for 3 rounds straight. I'm not sure if Perez is on the grappling level of Inoue, but it's probably his strongest department and the disparity is gonna show again. Perez easily handled a strong wrestler in his DWTNCS fight. De Tomas has heart but it won't be enough here, Perez will put on a clinic
 
Surprised to see people bet Dvalishvili considering the price. He has fought bad competition and hasnt exactly been dominant.

Ill take the tough american wrestler with unlimited gas tank against a hyped newcomer coming off a 15 second spinning backfist KO. There's a good chance Saenz gets dropped, but that's nothing new to him. +150 is more than enough.
 
Re: Merab

Then again, Saenz has always shown good movement and maybe he’ll be the better fighter at range with those leg kicks. I just can’t get over the 10 year age gap. Merab will also come crashing into him regardless.

I'm also heavy on Perez here. De Tomas got absolutely wrecked on the ground by Inoue. Arguably 10-8'd for 3 rounds straight. I'm not sure if Perez is on the grappling level of Inoue, but it's probably his strongest department and the disparity is gonna show again. Perez easily handled a strong wrestler in his DWTNCS fight. De Tomas has heart but it won't be enough here, Perez will put on a clinic

Too bad it’s priced out. I caught the opener -260 but I’m only allowed to win 20$ with my limits.
 
Surprised to see people bet Dvalishvili considering the price. He has fought bad competition and hasnt exactly been dominant.

Ill take the tough american wrestler with unlimited gas tank against a hyped newcomer coming off a 15 second spinning backfist KO. There's a good chance Saenz gets dropped, but that's nothing new to him. +150 is more than enough.

Yea those numbers don’t align up well currently at -170. The over would be the real play if Saenz wasn’t 37 and that it’s set at -235.
 
Swanson stayed on his feet against Dias and Kawajiri.

Dias essentially made no effort to get the fight to the ground and Cub definitely did not stay on his feet vs Kawa. Kawa took him down a few times and had him mounted in round 1.
 
Cub's TDD is shit I think there shouldn't be a debate about that he's very willing to get taken down and try to work that butterfly guard. IIRC the Edgar fight is a good example of what might happen here against T-City; Swanson thinks he's good enough to roll on the mat, but gets neutralized thoroughly. Might even get subbed in this case (Edgar wasn't that willing to risk submission attempts).

But I still think Ortega's odds are inflated as it is now what y'all feelin
 
i'm very big on cub as i've stated, but man, i had to take some ortega sub +285.. that's how he freakin wins... pseudo hedge...

im hoping to get ortega ml +250 sometime in the first eight minutes of the fight.
 
Ortega's striking has progressed from dumpster fire to wastebin fire across the course of his fights. His submission game is good, but he's not Demian Maia. Every time the community gets behind a usbmission dude as being totally lethal on the mat, Pettis-Moreno happens. I've got a purple belt in BJJ, I know how effective discipline and stalling can be in an MMA context when it comes to not getting your ass subbed. Ortega's UFC subs are 'Brandao massively gassing out and doing something dumb' and 'Moicano going for a shitty double leg'. Tavares survived and won in top control for 2 rounds in their fight, Guida was able to get on top of Ortega.

Swanson's sub losses are against better guys. I think the one that's most similar to what Ortega could do is the Holloway loss, where Cub essentially panic-wrestled into a guillotine. Edgar dad-dicked him for 4.75 rounds before grabbing an unconventional strength sub, Lamas was probably the sub where I'd say he got the most 'out-BJJ'd. I think Lamas' grappling is better than Ortega's, I'd have difficulties rating Ortega's grappling over Knight's at this point. The other subs are more than a decade ago. One of the biggest maxims in my MMA betting is 'Don't take the flashy grappler with no consistent way to get it to the ground'. A discipline, boring Swanson takes this by wide-ass decision IMO. Swanson stayed on his feet against Dias and Kawajiri.

Also, so far as Ortega's chin is concerned, the only massive hitter he's faced is Diego Brandao. I think are building him up to be a lot more than he actually is.
Swanson has been taken down by his last 3 opponents, he did not stay on his feet vs Kawajiri, a lot of that fight was contested on the ground and Swanson was taken down 3 times. And when Artem Lobov can hit knee taps on you, I mean theres really no excuse for that, other than you don't have great TDD.

Ortega said he doesn't like to pursue TD's a lot because it's a waste of energy. Ortega has only taken down one of his UFC opponents and it was his debut fight. But like I said before, he doesn't neeed a TD to get him to the ground.

Ortega is the younger, undefeated, improving fighter, usually thats the side I wanna be on. I just can't trust Swanson like you can, it will be interesting to see what his approach is, will he limit some of his offence or will he be the typical freestyle Cub Swanson.
 
Swanson decision/Ortega sub are the most likely outcomes IMO. So you can play one and slightly hedge with the other, maybe Swanson decision and LB Ortega too.
 
oh man I'm loving that Aljo +145 ML
Frankie and Eddie both have a hard time taking Marlon down, I doubt Aljo will. and on the feet it should be a big advantage for Marlon, I don't see Aljo winning, as good as he is.
 
As soon as I saw Sterling +150 I thought thats a great bet but then I asked myself, what if Moraes was +150?

The thing about this fight is, it's going to be close, it has split decision written all over it. Sterling looks better everytime we see him, his striking has come a long way, I like the pace and striking output he's been bringing lately.

I'm not really sure what a win over Barao in 2017 means, the guy is clearly not what he used to be. Sterling clearly won that fight and he even managed to takedown Barao who as been impossible to TD in the past. Sterling was actually taken down himself in this fight early in the 1st round. Barao was then able to hold Sterling down for the rest of the round which I really didn't like, Sterling didn't even come close to getting up. Moraes is also known for working in his own TD's.

I've bet Moraes in both his UFC fights but there's no way I touch his price here. I'm assuming Moraes will have the edge on the feet here but Sterling will be competitive. If Sterling can mix in TD's then thats where it gets really interesting. Moraes kicks a lot and Dodson was able to catch his kicks and take him down twice. Although Moraes immediately scrambled back to his feet when he was taken down. If a 125er like Dodson, who is not know for his wrestling can get Moraes down, then Sterling probably can as well, holding him down is a different question.

So goodluck who ever is betting this, I think Sterling +150 is a decent bet, it's clearly dog or pass. I think I'm passing but Sterling is still tempting.
completely disagree with " dog or pass" i'd be on Marlons ML up until -200
 
Went to put 2u on Holtzman... and accidentally bet on Horcher. I guess it's late and I got the last names confused. Pretty sure there's nothing I can do about that :(
I think you accidentally are going to win some money
 
Liking Holtzmann. Horcher looked mediocre in his last fight, which was understandable since the dude had like 90% of his body surgically repaired after a car-crash last year. I faded him against Powell who almost won, and I'll continue to fade him.

The car accident is one of the biggest reasons I'm taking Holtzman.

I was in a car accident 7-8 years ago, got t-boned and had to do 3-4 months rehab and took off a lot of time off from Muay Thai, Horcher's motorcycle accident was a lot more serious with all the surgeries too.

Any chiropractor or health practitioners will tell you most people never go back to 100% after a car accident, legit accidents. Horcher's motorcycle accident was pretty serious after reading articles about it. Two serious red flags was when he said I'm as close to 100% as I can be (which means he is not) and his range of motion isn't there which is vital for a mma fighter. Hard to discuss mental aspect b/c it varies by individual but it has an impact too.
 
I'm kind of hesitant to bet Moraes at these odds, but then again, Sterling tends to lose close fights because of his overconfidence, which might have been boosted by his win over Barao. Moraes has good scrambles and steady intensity and Sterlings a tendency to fade. I'll go with Sterling sub and Moraes ml + R3.
 
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