Bellator 191 - McDonald vs Ligier - England

Bellator 191 weigh-in results:

Michael McDonald (137.6) vs. Peter Ligier (135.8)

Valerie Letourneau (125.8) vs. Kate Jackson (125.5)

James Thompson (266) vs. Phil De Fries (261)

Mohammad Yahya (163) vs. Ash Griffiths (170.5)

Jeremy Petley (146.4) vs. Lewis Monarch (146)
 
Jackson just got smashed, sharp money clearly came in. Lets go baby! I'm an elite bettor, high level capper.

Not here to play guessing games
 
I don't know if I trust Zee's #elite picks like I trust Budden proven #ELITE picks but okay, as I won a few units last night on trash I'm throwing a unit on Jackson @2.30.

wmma... what is my life :(
 
Sometimes when I read the braggadocio in these threads it reminds me of Yosemite Sam in this classic Looney Tunes bit:

 
I don't know if I trust Zee's #elite picks like I trust Budden proven #ELITE picks but okay, as I won a few units last night on trash I'm throwing a unit on Jackson @2.30.

wmma... what is my life :(
Elite picks like Hendricks against Borachina? :D hehe I like his breakdowns anyway but this pick was wtf 2017
 
Sometimes when I read the braggadocio in these threads it reminds me of Yosemite Sam in this classic Looney Tunes bit:



You think LeTourneau is an elite play at -117?

Hard to shake the Calderwood fight altogether, esp since Val is 34 and may not be the same after. But man she just seems better than Kate.
 
You think LeTourneau is an elite play at -117?

Hard to shake the Calderwood fight altogether, esp since Val is 34 and may not be the same after. But man she just seems better than Kate.
Sadly I'm on Letourneau at a much worse price than that and honestly having second thoughts. I just don't like bragging and self-aggrandizement, even if the person is making a good point in regards to handicapping. It just seems really immature and silly to me, but what do I know? I guess the anonymity of the internet let's people put on these exaggerated and sometimes cringeworthy personas.
 
Sadly I'm on Letourneau at a much worse price than that and honestly having second thoughts. I just don't like bragging and self-aggrandizement, even if the person is making a good point in regards to handicapping. It just seems really immature and silly to me, but what do I know? I guess the anonymity of the internet let's people put on these exaggerated and sometimes cringeworthy personas.

It's natural to have second thoughts if you bet -160 and then -120 is available. But at the same time -160 seemed like a possibly good bet and it's now worth discussing whether -120 is an elite bet.

The Calderwood performance is scary, but that's only one piece of the puzzle and all of the other pieces paint a favorable picture for Val.

Jackson was just outclassed by somebody who got 50-44'd by Tonya Evinger. And now she fights somebody who has held her own vs Jedrzeczyk and Gadelha, and performed at least decently well in 5 of her 6 UFC fights except Calderwood.

Val seems like a better version of Scheider...tall and rangey striker, the Calderwood loss can't be much worse than getting owned by Evinger and she has so many solid performances to offset it. Jackson has no striking game and just goes for takedowns, Val was able to scramble back to her feet vs Gadelha, don't think Jackson will dominate her with wrestling.

The way I see it, Yosemite Sam created a rare opportunity for us :)
 
It's natural to have second thoughts if you bet -160 and then -120 is available. But at the same time -160 seemed like a possibly good bet and it's now worth discussing whether -120 is an elite bet.

The Calderwood performance is scary, but that's only one piece of the puzzle and all of the other pieces paint a favorable picture for Val.

Jackson was just outclassed by somebody who got 50-44'd by Tonya Evinger. And now she fights somebody who has held her own vs Jedrzeczyk and Gadelha, and performed at least decently well in 5 of her 6 UFC fights except Calderwood.

Val seems like a better version of Scheider...tall and rangey striker, the Calderwood loss can't be much worse than getting owned by Evinger and she has so many solid performances to offset it. Jackson has no striking game and just goes for takedowns, Val was able to scramble back to her feet vs Gadelha, don't think Jackson will dominate her with wrestling.

The way I see it, Yosemite Sam created a rare opportunity for us :)

I think I agree with this Elite analysis. Thank you Yosemite
 
I think I agree with this Elite analysis. Thank you Yosemite
God damn, been swayed, had two equal sized bets on Jackson, cashed one out for full stake. Was more than I’d usually do and tbf its wmma what was I thinking!
 
God damn, been swayed, had two equal sized bets on Jackson, cashed one out for full stake. Was more than I’d usually do and tbf its wmma what was I thinking!

I'm freerolling Val now for small stakes. Might add more though
 
Jackson just got smashed, sharp money clearly came in. Lets go baby! I'm an elite bettor, high level capper.

Not here to play guessing games

i bet her too but there is probably a total of 5k bet on this obscure fight

vegas, online, etc.

line movement in this type of fight with limited liquidity probably means little if anything
 
Bella 191 Risk: 227
ligier +450: 22 for 99
jackson-letourneau O2.5: 110 for 50
de fries-thompson U1.5: 95 for 50
---

yea don't tail blindly =P should've passed altogether but i'll watch it sometime later in the weekend (hopefully i can look at a screen) so added degen action
 
i bet her too but there is probably a total of 5k bet on this obscure fight

vegas, online, etc.

line movement in this type of fight with limited liquidity probably means little if anything

Yup!!!

That's why 1 guy in this forum using caps making a prediction can get enough guys to move the lines.
 
Been a fan of Val since her 1st UFC fight and just rewatched Kate's 2 fights on TUF because I couldn't remember them for jack.


1st round she took Yoder down off a front kick. Stayed on top for basically the rest of round with like half of it being in a Yoder armbar. Start of the 2nd round Kate's mouth was wide open and she looked gassed to hell (Maybe because of 2nd weight cut to 115 in the TUF house?). Didn't make sense to me since she was on top the whole round. 2nd round was fairly competitive. Kate won a 2 round UD.



Then she got bodied by Suarez. R1 guillotine. No shame in that, but didn't show anything good either.

Kinda irrelevent, but one weird thing I noticed was that Kate started both those fights by going left to the cage.





Also, JJ and Val are close training partners at ATT and JJ beat Kate 4 years ago/coached against her on TUF.

Unless Val's age and weight cuts to 115 have caught up to her (which is to be seen), I think there is great value on her at -105 in this 125lb fight.
 
Back
Top