UFC 219 - Cyborg vs Holm - Vegas

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I've said it once, I will say it again. Diakiese is going to outclass Hooker.


@iGnP @Oblivian do you guys have any strong leans for tonight??

Smolka was insane value at +310. Best line of the card imo. I'm on Glenn at +220 as well. I'm with a lot of the others on Barb and Esparza as well. I'm against most and on Condit here, but small. Favs that I'm on are Elliott, Vettori, Diakese, Khalil/Ole ITD, Holm/Holly ITD.
 
Barboza is going to win via KNEE (TKO +570). It will most likely happen in round 2 (+1150).
I think that we're looking at a leg kick TKO, honestly. Khabib doesn't do much to protect his legs from what we've seen.
 
Smolka was insane value at +310. Best line of the card imo. I'm on Glenn at +220 as well. I'm with a lot of the others on Barb and Esparza as well. I'm against most and on Condit here, but small. Favs that I'm on are Elliott, Vettori, Diakese, Khalil/Ole ITD, Holm/Holly ITD.
Do you have an opinion of how Holly can win this fight or is it a play purely on value
 
Smolka has not been the same since Moreno upset him. Things need to change in his head if he wants to keep his job in the ufc. Just keeps giving up in grappling exchanges.

You guys think im weird for finding holly attractive? Or Am i the only one?

Holly -not wierd
Cyborg - wierd

Normal it is.
 
Do you have an opinion of how Holly can win this fight or is it a play purely on value

Sorry, that was a typo - Cyborg/Holm ITD. Played that a long time ago in a parlay that closes. I don't think Holly has a good chance besides a headkick.
 
Sorry, that was a typo - Cyborg/Holm ITD. Played that a long time ago in a parlay that closes. I don't think Holly has a good chance besides a headkick.
Agreed
 
Do you have an opinion of how Holly can win this fight or is it a play purely on value
I believe the Jackson/Wink strategy will be to avoid contact in the first round. Holm may even receive a warning for passivity. The idea will be to get Cyborg to get frustrated & rush in like a pissed off bull. If Cyborg loses her cool & rushes in she could easily get stunned by a straight left & finished via head kick. Holm fights o the level of her competition. We could see an upset. I have already bet Cyborg. However, I understand why so many have bet on Holm.
 
I think Holm's going to be surprised at how well Cyborg can cover the distance.
 
I believe the Jackson/Wink strategy will be to avoid contact in the first round. Holm may even receive a warning for passivity. The idea will be to get Cyborg to get frustrated & rush in like a pissed off bull. If Cyborg loses her cool & rushes in she could easily get stunned by a straight left & finished via head kick. Holm fights o the level of her competition. We could see an upset. I have already bet Cyborg. However, I understand why so many have bet on Holm.
Highly highly doubtful. This line should be much higher. Look at previous lines of Holly fights- they’re always juiced and she’s been overvalued ever since the Ronda KO. The outcome of that fight tells us more about Ronda than it does Holly, if you know what I mean. Cyborg isn’t a sloppy brawler who is going to throw her gameplan out the window if she doesn’t get an early finish. She’s the most talented woman fighter in history. More so, most of Holly’s KOs have come from high kicks. If she doesn’t land it, can she finish Cyborg in another way? Extremely doubtful. That’s literally the one aspect Cyborg has to worry about
 
Have had to put capping and betting on the back burner lately. It sucks, I miss it, but dealing with a terminally ill family member when you are POA and dealing with one issue after another just takes way more time than I ever imagined it could. I basically skipped 2 events compeletely, can't remember the last time I did that. I've spent little time on this card too, and my action pre fight will reflect that. For what it's worth, my thoughts on some fights based on the limited research I've done:

Cyborg most likely stops Holm at some point. I think Holly will do what she does, circle away, avoid exchanges, try to potshot Cris. At some point though she's gonna have to get some respect from Cyborg, and I don't think she can. I think Cyborg -5.5 still has value at -240. I also like a small stab at Cyborg sub at +975.

I like Barboza at these odds. I think he has a very realistic shot to win (as it seems a lot of the regs here do--not surprised, I kinda figured he'd get some love here as a pretty big dog). This fight is stylistically of course the easiest to break down. Grappler vs striker, pretty simple. If Barb can keep it standing for long enough stretches, he'll win. If he can't, he'll lose.

I know some people like Carla based on odds, but she's flakey to me. I got burned betting her vs Markos pretty badly. That was a fight where I really think Carla was the more skilled fighter, but her confidence (or lack of it) showed so much. In this fight, I think she's the less skilled fighter. And Cavillo oozes confidence. I like Cavillo by sub, rd 2 or 3.

Hooker is gonna give Diakiese all he can handle. I'm not sure who wins, but I think this will be close. Hooker +3.5 at-145 is the bet here imo. Or fight goes distance at -150. I'm on both.

I don't know what to make of Magny/Condit. Too many question marks, I'll just watch it and enjoy it and look for good LB opportunities.

Roundtree probably blasts Olek early, but no value at all. Unless you are the guy who arbed the rd 1 props for a ton of units. Amazing work for free $ there.

I think Glenn will be very competitive vs Jury. Jury probably wins, but Glenn +3.5 is tempting. I just wish it was cheaper. Glenn usually fights for your money if nothing else.

Vettori is too expensive, and so is his NSC line which is what I was figuring I'd be on. Pass, will just LB.

I like Smolka a lot here. +195 is great value. I think he can win some scrambles and get himself into good positions in the grappling game as long as he isn't satisfied just sub hunting off his back. I'm gonna believe him in that he's learned that lesson. I wouldn't be him at evens or anything, but at 2-1 he's absolutely worth a bet.

I know nothing about De La Rosa so I'm not even gonna pretend to try to cap this fight. Nor will I think about betting it.

Hope everyone had a great holiday and makes some $ tonight.
 
I would be highly surprised if barb gets the eagle out of there with a knee. Khabib does not usually go for doubles but gets his hands on you and drags you down. Barb is very live though because the fight will remaining standing for stretches, I dont think khabib will finish him early if he gets him down, but i dont think barb gets back up either. so he will have the beginning of each round to do damage standing or khabib will take dec or late stoppage. This is my favorite fight i am looking forward to, cant wait for it.
 
I would be highly surprised if barb gets the eagle out of there with a knee. Khabib does not usually go for doubles but gets his hands on you and drags you down. Barb is very live though because the fight will remaining standing for stretches, I dont think khabib will finish him early if he gets him down, but i dont think barb gets back up either. so he will have the beginning of each round to do damage standing or khabib will take dec or late stoppage. This is my favorite fight i am looking forward to, cant wait for it.

I agree from the standpoint that throwing a knee as Khabib closes distance is such an all-or-nothing strategy. Basically if you don't land it, you're getting taken down by a grappler the level of Khabib. And like you said, once that happens Barb isn't getting back up.

Barb HAS to control distance and land on Khabib early. Bust him up and keep it standing for as long as he can. Even if Khabib hits a TD mid round, if Barb is really lighting him up standing prior to that and Khabib does minimal damage after the TD, there's at least a CHANCE that Barb wins rounds that way. Plus it might take some of the starch out of Khabib for later in the fight.

If Khabib hits TD's early in rounds, it's a wrap. He's just too dominant a grappler with top position. Barb will drown if that happens.
 
-280 that Rountree doesn't get fastest KO is tempting. 9 other fights. IDK...I might have to bet this.
 
-280 that Rountree doesn't get fastest KO is tempting. 9 other fights. IDK...I might have to bet this.
Um, why? What other fights have the potential to end early? Not that many for -280
 
UFC 219 Risk $4184.50

Cris Cyborg -5½ points (-225) vs Holly Holm $225.00 for $100.00
Cris Cyborg -5½ points (-275) vs Holy Holm $275.00 for $100.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission (+950) $50.00 for $475.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission (+1000) $50.00 for $500.00
Cris Cyborg/Holly Holm starts round 2 (-254) $762.00 for $300.00
Cris Cyborg/Holly Holm starts round 2 (-296) $148.00 for $50.00
Cris Cyborg/Holly Holm Over 1½ (-207) $207.00 for $100.00
Cris Cyborg wins in round 3 (+700) ~$30.00 for ~$210.00
Cris Cyborg wins in round 4 (+1350) ~$30.00 for ~$405.00
Cris Cyborg wins in round 5 (+2400) ~$30.00 for ~$720.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission in round 2 (+3000) ~$30.00 for ~$900.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission in round 3 (+4000) ~$30.00 for ~$1200.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission in round 4 (+5500) ~$30.00 for ~$1650.00
Cris Cyborg wins by submission in round 5 (+6600) ~$30.00 for ~$1980.00

Edson Barboza (+240) vs Khabib Nurmagomedov $100.00 for $240.00
Edson Barboza scorecards= no action (+177) $100.00 for $177.00
Edson Barboza wins by KO/TKO/DQ (+498) $50.00 for $249.00
Edson Barboza wins in round 1 (+898) $25.00 for $224.50
Edson Barboza wins in round 2 (+1200) $25.00 for $300.00

Dan Hooker (+160) vs Marc Diakiese $100.00 for $160.00
Dan Hooker wins by submission (+850) $15.00 for $127.50

Carla Esparza (+200) vs Cynthia Calvillo $100.00 for $200.00
Carla Esparza/Cynthia Calvillo Over 2½ (-215) $215.00 for $100.00
Carla Esparza Points Victory or Technical Decision (+374) ~$30.00 for ~$112.20
Carla Esparza wins by split decision (+1000) ~$15.00 for ~$150.00
Cynthia Calvillo wins by split decision (+550) ~$15.00 for ~$82.50

Neil Magny (+145) vs Carlos Condit $100.00 for $145.00
Neil Magny (+140) vs Carlos Condit $100.00 for $140.00

Khalil Rountree wins in round 1 (-125) vs Michal Oleksiejczuk $62.50 for $50.00

Myles Jury/Rick Glenn Over 2½ (-200) $80.00 for $40.00

Marvin Vettori (-225) vs Omari Akhmedov $225.00 for $100.00
Marvin Vettori wins in round 3 (+941) $15.00 for $141.15

Matheus Nicolau (-210) vs Louis Smolka $210.00 for $100.00
Matheus Nicolau (-220) vs Louis Smolka $220.00 for $100.00

Mark De La Rosa (+185) vs Tim Elliott $100.00 for $185.00
Mark De La Rosa (+185) vs Tim Elliott $100.00 for $185.00
Mark De La Rosa/Tim Elliott Under 2½ (+180) $100.00 for $180.00

No fights end in submission (+460) $10.00 for $46.00

Khalil Rountree wins Fastest KO (+200) $25.00 for $50.00
Neil Magny/Carlos Condit FOTN award winner (+700) $15.00 for $105.00

Cris Cyborg wins POTN bonus (+130) ~$15.00 for ~$19.50
Edson Barboza wins POTN bonus (+415) ~$15.00 for ~$62.25
Khalil Rountree wins POTN bonus (+304) ~$15.00 for ~$45.60
Marvin Vettori wins POTN bonus (+1200) ~$15.00 for ~$180.00
Matheus Nicolau wins POTN bonus (+700) ~$15.00 for ~$105.00

Round Robin of Two-Team Parlays Risk ~$30.00
Cris Cyborg/Holly Holm fight ends in round 3 (+550)
Edson Barboza/Khabib Nurmagomedov fight ends in round 3 (+600)
Daniel Hooker/Marc Diakese fight ends in round 3 (+800)
Carla Esparza/Cynthia Calvillo fight ends in round 3 (+750)
Neil Magny/Carlos Condit fight ends in round 3 (+750)
Khalil Rountree/Michal Oleksiejczuk fight ends in round 3 (+800)
Myles Jury/Rick Glenn fight ends in round 3 (+900)
Marvin Vettori/Omari Akhmedov fight ends in round 3 (+650)
Matheus Nicolau/Louis Smolka fight ends in round 3 (+900)
Mark De La Rosa/Tim Elliott fight ends in round 3 (+850)

Jesus, 20u~ on the main event. I wish you luck! Looks like we're on mostly all the same plays.
 
Um, why? What other fights have the potential to end early? Not that many for -280

Just a #'s game. Is there roughly a 27% chance that out of 10 fights (so 20 fighters), Rountree scores the fastest KO? That's the implied odds, and I'm not sure the % is that high. Weird things happen literally EVERY card that none of us predict right? And in this case, it doesn't necessarily HAVE to be that someone else scores a really early KO. What if Rountree doesn't KO him until late? Or hell, what if he doesn't get the KO at all?

I agree, there's a lot of fighters here where an early KO is really unlikely. But there's some where it's not so crazy.

Do I think Rountree is the most likely of the 20 fighters to score an early KO? Yeah, for sure. Do I think it's better than a 1 in 4 chance it's him? Not really. Probably 15-20% chance it's him imo, which gives at least SOME value to -280. A big play on it? Nah. But worth something imo.
 
Taking another dog in Hooker @2.60, 1U. Also adding 0.5U Magny [email protected]. I already have his ML and I think Condits all wars finally caught up with him.

Can’t remember last time I was on dogs only. Love it.
 
Smolka was insane value at +310. Best line of the card imo. I'm on Glenn at +220 as well. I'm with a lot of the others on Barb and Esparza as well. I'm against most and on Condit here, but small. Favs that I'm on are Elliott, Vettori, Diakese, Khalil/Ole ITD, Holm/Holly ITD.

I am on the exact same, I only skipped the esparza fight, I like Cynthia but Esparza is friends with that Felice Herrig, so she might be at least bisexual which changes a lot for me lol, I cannot bet against that
 
Okay, I just dropped what for me is an atomic bomb on Cyborg itd at -155. This line is just stupid good. 25 minutes for her to finish? I did 4.5u on this. Biggest bet by far on the card for me now. Not even close.
 
Have had to put capping and betting on the back burner lately. It sucks, I miss it, but dealing with a terminally ill family member when you are POA and dealing with one issue after another just takes way more time than I ever imagined it could. I basically skipped 2 events compeletely, can't remember the last time I did that. I've spent little time on this card too, and my action pre fight will reflect that. For what it's worth, my thoughts on some fights based on the limited research I've done:

Cyborg most likely stops Holm at some point. I think Holly will do what she does, circle away, avoid exchanges, try to potshot Cris. At some point though she's gonna have to get some respect from Cyborg, and I don't think she can. I think Cyborg -5.5 still has value at -240. I also like a small stab at Cyborg sub at +975.

I like Barboza at these odds. I think he has a very realistic shot to win (as it seems a lot of the regs here do--not surprised, I kinda figured he'd get some love here as a pretty big dog). This fight is stylistically of course the easiest to break down. Grappler vs striker, pretty simple. If Barb can keep it standing for long enough stretches, he'll win. If he can't, he'll lose.

I know some people like Carla based on odds, but she's flakey to me. I got burned betting her vs Markos pretty badly. That was a fight where I really think Carla was the more skilled fighter, but her confidence (or lack of it) showed so much. In this fight, I think she's the less skilled fighter. And Cavillo oozes confidence. I like Cavillo by sub, rd 2 or 3.

Hooker is gonna give Diakiese all he can handle. I'm not sure who wins, but I think this will be close. Hooker +3.5 at-145 is the bet here imo. Or fight goes distance at -150. I'm on both.

I don't know what to make of Magny/Condit. Too many question marks, I'll just watch it and enjoy it and look for good LB opportunities.

Roundtree probably blasts Olek early, but no value at all. Unless you are the guy who arbed the rd 1 props for a ton of units. Amazing work for free $ there.

I think Glenn will be very competitive vs Jury. Jury probably wins, but Glenn +3.5 is tempting. I just wish it was cheaper. Glenn usually fights for your money if nothing else.

Vettori is too expensive, and so is his NSC line which is what I was figuring I'd be on. Pass, will just LB.

I like Smolka a lot here. +195 is great value. I think he can win some scrambles and get himself into good positions in the grappling game as long as he isn't satisfied just sub hunting off his back. I'm gonna believe him in that he's learned that lesson. I wouldn't be him at evens or anything, but at 2-1 he's absolutely worth a bet.

I know nothing about De La Rosa so I'm not even gonna pretend to try to cap this fight. Nor will I think about betting it.

Hope everyone had a great holiday and makes some $ tonight.
Tremendous value on Rountree Fastest TKO +200. Also like Rountree R1 -120.
 
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