2017 Recap & Analytics

Started 2017 with a bankroll of $75,327. With no further deposits, I am now sitting at $215,053.

Zooming toward retirement at geriatric pace (upgrade from tortoise pace last year).

Started doing this in May 2015 with the intention of retiring young. So far it has gone a bit worse than expected, but to be honest my expectations were a bit too high. I fully intend to ride this bus until the wheels fall off, meaning all the top bookies ban me. I figure there must be a number at which this occurs even though they tell me otherwise.
 
Started 2017 with a bankroll of $75,327. With no further deposits, I am now sitting at $215,053.

Zooming toward retirement at geriatric pace (upgrade from tortoise pace last year).

Started doing this in May 2015 with the intention of retiring young. So far it has gone a bit worse than expected, but to be honest my expectations were a bit too high. I fully intend to ride this bus until the wheels fall off, meaning all the top bookies ban me. I figure there must be a number at which this occurs even though they tell me otherwise.
Such a great result would be infinitely more interesting if you posted your bets.
 
Started 2017 with a bankroll of $75,327. With no further deposits, I am now sitting at $215,053.

Zooming toward retirement at geriatric pace (upgrade from tortoise pace last year).

Started doing this in May 2015 with the intention of retiring young. So far it has gone a bit worse than expected, but to be honest my expectations were a bit too high. I fully intend to ride this bus until the wheels fall off, meaning all the top bookies ban me. I figure there must be a number at which this occurs even though they tell me otherwise.

Dam boy! Killing em
 
Biggest losses of 2017:

1. Net loss of $22,000 on Mayweather-McGregor, didn't bet Mickey SU but tons of failed props. Did not expect McGregor's gas tank to be that bad
2. Net loss over $21,000 on UFC 211, worst MMA event of the year, absolute garbage plays, took a bath that night and had to focus on regrouping
3. Net loss almost $15,000 on UFC 214
4. Lost $7800 thanks to BJ Penn losing to Dennis Siver, crap bet
5. Lost $7000 fading Super Sage against Michel Quinones, horrible bet


Worst bet of the year:

JDS over Miocic or Maia over Woodley

You must have immense self control and calmness to keep your cool after losses like that! Makes your profit this year that much more impressive IMO.
 
I built up alot of confident in 2017 with accurate mma betting. Bought a new car with my winnings. Gona use an imaginary unit size and use my paycheck to regulate my unit size. Its my confident picks that have boosted my unit size, my confident picks are not allways based on skills, Emmet pick was based on good use of steroids, Magny fight was based on intervies and a fading Condit

My 10-15u plays over the year
Wins
Josh Emmet (2,4)vs Darrel hitched
Magny(2,6)vs Condit
Holloway (2,1) vs Aldo
Luke Jumeo (1,85) vs Dominqe Steel
Angela Hill(1,4) vs Ashly Yoder

10u L
Arlovski vs Taybar
Jojo Calderwood (3,2)vs Cynthia Carvalio
Lina Länsberg (3,0)vs Cynthia Carvalio
 
I made my first sportsbook bet fall 2016 and I started active betting last spring, but these stats cover events since UFN 115. After rough summer I made some new rules for myself:
1) No livebets. I mainly want to get good at prebets anyways and hate messing up my sleep pattern.
2) No arbing as it won’t be a consistent possibility if I start betting big someday. Better to try to learn clean technique from start so to speak. Also for a beginner arbing is a distraction from actual match-up analysis.
3) Separate gambling from bankroll bets as I sometime like to just have fun and have money on my favourites. There’s no reason to mess up my bankroll because of that, as I’m both trying to learn and have fun.
4) As consistent bet sizes as possible to get good track record to learn from.

Total since UFN 115: +33.5u (Before that I was -2u.)
UFC: +25u with roi of 19% (265 bets)
Bellator: +2u
Mayweather - McGregor: +6.5u

Following stats are UFC only:

ML roi 18% (116 bets)
My preferred ml odds range 1.7-2.8 roi was 26%.

Itd, dec, sub and ko/tko props roi 35% (55 bets)

Round props roi 13% (77 bets)
R3 bets had best result with roi of 100% (37 bets and five wins).

Does/does not go to judges + unders and overs roi -13% (17 bets)
U2.5 had best results with roi of 155%. 5 bets, 5 wins, odds 2.0-3.35. lol

I admit, that I’m guilty of cherry picking fallacy, as I actually do have very good records on my iPad of all my bets this year. I’m just too lazy to do statistics from all of them, as summer was very demoralizing. I’m somewhat confident though, that losing streak back then made me a more solid bettor. From now on I promise to type all my bets on Excel after each event.

I think this year I’ll try to use 2-3u bet size range more on undercard ml bets and also increase bet sizes of R3 and u2.5 bets.

I’m still struggling with technical analysis, so huge thanks for everyone who has helped me with that stuff.
 
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After many years of betting on MMA and lurking on sherdog, I finally decided to start posting my bets here. Next year I'll intend to be a more active contributor on the forum instead of just posting my bets. I posted my first bets here on 10/29/17 and these are the results so far:

UFC FN 119 +7.22u
UFC 217 +12.115u
UFC FN 120 +12.304u
UFC FN 121 -6.01u
UFC FN 122 +4.585u
UFC 218 -1.585u
UFC FN 123 +3.667u
Titan FC 47 +0.423u
UFC on FOX 26 +9.532u
UFC 219 +11.774u

Total profit: +54.025u

These are only the pre-event bets that I posted in the bet-threads. Bets after the event started or live-bets are not included.

A big thank you to everybody contributing on the betting section of the forum and a happy new year to all of you!

You came out of nowhere a couple months ago and your betting style is very similar to mine, I like it a lot!
 
Nice job man! I think it's awesome the way you keep your detailed stats. It definitely gives perspective on things like underdogs/parlays. It's interesting that the results are almost identical. I remember I did that with singles vs. parlays and was shocked how my profit was almost a 50/50 split between the two.

I haven't worked out a way to track parlay results specifically on my sheet.. tho I do have the parlays listed on the side , which I could manually add up and deduct from the totals etc, I guess..

Not sure if it's something I feel the need to track, tho, cause I don't think I'd learn anything from it
 
I finished the year winning 270u, (5400 € with 1u = 20 €) (I'm raising my unit size constantly so I didn't win so many units speaking properly, I will do a better job next year with the numbers lol). I'm happy considering my goal was to make a good bankroll this year. But there is a lot of room for improvement, my previous bets were not very good compared to 2016 (I had a very good run) and some months I was somewhat frustrated and didn't have the correct mind for a daily grind. On the other hand I have not stopped winning livebetting, especially the last two months: I won a lot livebetting on Rose Clark (vs. Rawlings) Muhammad (vs. Means) Guan (vs. Caceres), Teymur (vs. Klose) Davis (vs. Carmouche), Benitez (vs Knight), Makdessi (vs Trujillo) and finally yesterday won a lot betting Hooker (vs Diakese) and Holm / Cyborg goes DEC +137 and a bit less livebetting Michal vs. (Khalil bumtree)

The first months of the year were bad, I remember starting the year losing 10u livebetting Held vs Lauzon (wtf) and I had a terrible event where I ended up full tilt and lost a good amount of units (the event where Barboza won vs. Dariush by flying knee and Formiga lost vs Borg in the last minute lol). The biggest win of the year was yesterday (UFC 219-Holm-Cyborg) with a total profit of 1170€.

I began playing cents 27-28 months ago with a 100€ bankroll and now I have 7.2K. So yeah, I'm happy :D.

I have not participated much in the discussions of the fighting this year partly because English is not my language and for lack of time but as someone has said before, this is the best MMA forum and you learn a lot from the community. You guys are a nightmare for the bookies. good job !!

Time to increase unit size, no?
 
2017 Recap

Total Units: +186.59 (689 fights)

event summary:

LFA 1: +100
Invicta 21: +308.50
UFN 103: +18
LFA 2: -185
Bella 170: +479.45
Titan 43: +149.50
Bella 171: -105
UFC FOX 23: -540.96
UFN 104: -601.98
UFC 208: -413.97
LFA 4: +94
Bella 172: +295
UFN 105: +1,412.36
LFA 5: +225
Bella 173: +102
Bella 174: -200
UFC 209: +409.81
UFN 106: +1,521.58
UFN 107: +1,051.81
WSOF 35: -462.50
invicta 22: -2.57
Bella 175: -107.86
Bella 176: +325
UFC 210: +35.49
Bella 177: +352
UFC Fox 24: -740.23
Rizin 5: +140
LFA 10: -20
Bella 178: +263.75
UFN 108: +2,602.44
CES 44: +70
UFC 211: +1,464.96
Bella 179: -153.50
Titan 44: +50
Invicta 23: +89.50
KSW 39: 0
UFN 109: +1,376.41
UFC 212: -672.76 <----- summer slump hit again
UFN 110: -1,243.94
UFN 111: -805.78
Bella 180: +509.67
UFN 112: -856.70
LFA 15: -47.52 <----- summer slump ended (net of -3,117.03)
PFL 1: +351.48
TUF 25: -88.84
UFC 213: +176.14
DW1: +340
bella 181: +265.20
invicta 24: +92.50
ufn 113: +1,122.83
DW2: +248.01
UFC Fox 25: +1,808.50
DW3: +51.39
PFL 2: +2
UFC 214: +1,792.65
Rizin 6: -20
DW4: +113.50
LFA 18: -95.50
UFN 114: -1,105.65
DW 5: -125.90
DW 6: +466.32
Titan 45: -60
LFA 19: -205
DW 7: +469.94
Bella 182: +688.75
LFA 20: +102.50
DW 8: +350.75
Invicta 25: -63.75
UFN 115: +312.60
LFA 22: +237.50,
UFC 215: -169.46
UFN 116: -609.57
UFN 117: +97.95
LFA 23: -70
ACB 70: +99
Bella 183: +490.08
Bella 184: +118.34
UFC 216: +78.02
LFA 24: -92
Bella 185: -224
LFA 25: -70
UFN 118: +548.08
UFN 119: +619.06
PFL 3: -357.50
Bella 186: -304.60
UFC 217: +3,242.15 <----- best event of 2017
Bella 187: -50
UFN 120: +455.75
Bella 188: +90
Titan 46: +115
UFN 121: -2,108.75 <----- worst event of 2017 (man i get killed on aussie cards)
UFN 122: -561.84
Bella 189: -333
TUF 26: +1,009.84
UFC 218: +870.23
Invicta 26: +347.50
Bella 190: +194.50
UFN 123: +428.23
Bella 191: +78
UFC Fox 26: +382.65
Rizin 8: -31.67
UFC 219: +863.35

-------------

By Promotion:
UFC: +150.94 units (525 fights)
Bellator: +27.94 units (87 fights)
Japanese MMA (Rizin): +0.88 units (5 fights)
Invicta: +7.72 units (21 fights)
WSOF/PFL: -4.67 units (16 fights)
Titan: +2.55 units (7 fights)
Others: +1.23 units (28 fights)

-------------

By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. grey area #2: my longshot event props fall under +401 and up dog slot

FAVORITES: +91.62 units (269 fights)
UNDERDOGS: +94.97 units (420 fights)

---
-101 to -200 favorites: +52.35 units (157 fights)
-201 to -400 favorites: +33.97 units (85 fights)
-401 & up favorites: +5.31 units (27 fights)

dogs up to +200: +93.09 units (232 fights)
+201 to +400 dogs: +3.46 units (107 fights)
+401 and up dogs: -1.58 units (81 fights)

-------------

By Weightclass (and event-wide):

Women: ((( +62.91 units total )))
145: +1.27 units
135: +10.33 units
125: +11.06 units
115: +40.55 units
105: -0.31 units

men: ((( +127.09 units total )))
265: +6.73 units
205: +20.54 units
185: +5.38 units
170: +22.04 units
155: +14.80 units
145: +16.36 units
135: +39.28 units
125: +1.96 units

---

event-wide props: ((( -3.40 units total )))

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -0.90 units

Fastest KO/SUB: -1.25 units

OVER decisions: +0.37 units
UNDER decisions: -0.40 units
OVER KO/SUBS: +0.58 units
UNDER KO/SUBS: -0.21 units

Draws: -1.6 units

-------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +145.64 units
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +40.96 units

-------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-5u or worse):
7/22/17: -543.50: bermudez vs elkins
2/20/17: -582.00: marshman vs santos <-- 9 seconds from profit, too
11/11/17: -643.45: lauzon vs guida


huge wins (+5.99u or better... too many wins of 4-5.98u to list)

6/24/17: +599.00: douglas lima vs larkin
4/22/17: +602.55: wineland vs dodson (via O2.5 and dodson dec)
10/28/17: +641.00: munhoz vs font
6/3/17: +648.50: holloway vs aldo
8/22/17: +707.95: nzechukwu vs berzin <-- lol how'd i win so much here
12/9/17: +719.50: saenz vs dvalishvili
7/7/17: +721.00: gaethje vs johnson
5/28/17: +797.90: velickovic vs musoke
9/22/17: +885.05: andrade vs gadelha
7/22/17: +897.50: zaleski vs good
5/28/17: +916.70: akhmedov vs al hassan
11/4/17: +1,224.27: dillashaw vs garbrandt
4/22/17: +1,323.75: moreno vs ortiz
11/4/17: +1,328.93: namajunas vs jedrzejczyk
7/29/17: +1,445.48: ortega vs moicano
2/20/17: +1,786.50: markos vs esparza

-------------

my key takeaways:
-WOW. almost a 50/50 split on profits from favorites and dogs for me. 2016 was all about dogs. interesting.
-event props continue to bleed some profit again this year
-wmma got WAY better for me (largely cause of namajunas and andrade wins)

2017: +187u
2016: +113u
2015: +175u
2014: +125u
2013: +115u
2012: +137u
2011: +97u
2010: +94u


i'm finally raising my units for the first time in a few years. long overdue, i know. 100/unit is now 150/unit.

And this is only MMA! No tennis or hockey, wow!
 
Going to keep meticulous track of everything in 2018 (not like EZ though).

Biggest win was Weidman over Gastelum.

Biggest loss was Brunson losing to Silva.

The biggest takeaway for me in 2017 was that I know what I’m watching and I need to not focus on what everyone else thinks in the forums. There were times I had bets for no good reason and times that I loved fights but didn’t bet accordingly.

Good luck to everyone in 2018, thank you to everyone for the help and insight, and let’s make 2018 the most profitable year yet!
 
upload_2018-1-1_19-56-57.png
My money over the year. Had a real bad ending but clawed my way back with UFC219. Total of +13,53U. Not bad, but not super good either. I dont play big plays and I dont make tons of plays.

Made 260 plays, with 102 wins and 151 losses, 7 pushes. ROI 105.13%.

Had some really nice plays I felt gooda bout like RDA vs Lawler, but everytime I tried upping my amount of units in bets the gods pulled me down, Gastelum vs Weidman, Gaethje vs Alvarez and Swanson vs Ortega being big bets I lost. Gotta be better at playing bets i feel good about with more units, now I rarely go over 2U per play.

Biggest wins:

Oliveira vs Brooks +5U
Whittaker vs Jacare +3.74U
Woodley vs Thompson +3U

Biggest losses:

Luke Jumeau vs Dominique Steele -3U
Josef Benavidez vs Darren Elkins -2.5U
Kelvin Gastelum vs Chris Weidman -2.5U

In hindsight Steele was a retard bet, but the other ones still feels good.

Im much better at finding dogs than favorites so I gonna keep doing that. Never pay the juice again!

I gotta, just like everyone else it seems, be better att NOT PLAYING JUST BECAUSE I CAN. Pass on fights or big events if I cant find a play i want. Dont live bet cause that always go south.

Onwards and upwards.
 
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My money over the year. Had a real bad ending but clawed my way back with UFC219. Total of +13,53U. Not bad, but not super good either. I dont play big plays and I dont make tons of plays.

Made 260 plays, with 102 wins and 151 losses, 7 pushes. ROI 105.13%.

Had some really nice plays I felt gooda bout like RDA vs Lawler, but everytime I tried upping my amount of units in bets the gods pulled me down, Gastelum vs Weidman, Gaethje vs Alvarez and Swanson vs Ortega being big bets I lost. Gotta be better at playing bets i feel good about with more units, now I rarely go over 2U per play.

Biggest wins:

Oliveira vs Brooks +5U
Whittaker vs Jacare +3.74U
Woodley vs Thompson +3U

Biggest losses:

Luke Jumeau vs Dominique Steele -3U
Josef Benavidez vs Darren Elkins -2.5U
Kelvin Gastelum vs Chris Weidman -2.5U

In hindsight Steele was a retard bet, but the other ones still feels good.

Im much better at finding dogs than favorites so I gonna keep doing that. Never pay the juice again!

I gotta, just like everyone else it seems, be better att NOT PLAYING JUST BECAUSE I CAN. Pass on fights or big events if I cant find a play i want. Dont live bet cause that always go south.

Onwards and upwards.

by benavidez did you mean bermudez? if so that was one of my worst plays of the year too.
 
Yep I got murdered on bermudez-elkins, too
 
I started betting on MMA in june 2016, so 2017 was my first complete year as a bettor. My personal goal for the year was to end up with atleast 100u profit and counting the McGregor/Mayweather fight I just barely managed to pull it off so I'm really pleased with that. Especially considering that I was barely paying attention to MMA at all between 2006 and 2016 and haven't had time to watch nearly as much tape as I would have liked too. I still have TONS to learn, and there's no better place to absorb knowledge than right here! This might sound stupid to some, but I stopped posting my bets a couple of events ago because I felt that it distracted me. I actually felt like it interfered with my decision making since I was starting to think about what others might think about my bets. I know, it's extremely silly and vain but nevertheless true.

I think the area that I've improved most in during the later part of the year is livebetting. I'm getting better at pulling the trigger and recognizing good LB opportunities and it's starting to show in my results. In fact, I think I'll try making less pre-bets this year and focus more on livebetting. I say try because I don't know if I'll even be able to watch most events live anymore since I'm becoming a father again soon. It's the greatest thing in the world, but I doubt I'll have the energy to stay up between 1AM and 7AM every weekend. It's pretty draining as it is. Looking back at my numbers for the year I also realise that my affection for lottoparlays lost my a pretty big chunk in the long run. The "tiny plays" added up over the year and if my calculations are correct I lost about 10u on such plays. Even as I type this one part of my brain is going "Dude! You just need ONE of those to hit to cover your parlay losses for the next couple of years"...I've also started doing fewer and smaller prop bets and focusing more on ML bets which seems to be benificial so far.

2018:

- Less parlays
- Less prop plays
- More livebetting (hopefully)
- Increased unit size
 
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This might sound stupid to some, but I stopped posting my bets a couple of events ago because I felt that it distracted me. I actually felt like it interfered with my decision making since I was starting to think about what others might think about my bets. I know, it's extremely silly and vain but nevertheless true.
Posting bets is a distraction for sure. It’s nice when my betting is relaxed, but I really don’t need the extra buzz/pressure when I’m under stress.
 
@NorthernLights
Congrats, daddy!

I think this thread really shows how much value this forum holds. Most of the people around here are making good money and they also help others make good money, which is awesome! Props to the non-bettors as well, @Card - GOAT .
Also, as a personal curiosity, I'd love to see some of @JimGunn 's stats. I think he's been killing it this year and I am pretty sure every member of this sub-forum has won some $$$ at least once based on his tips.
 
This might sound stupid to some, but I stopped posting my bets a couple of events ago because I felt that it distracted me. I actually felt like it interfered with my decision making since I was starting to think about what others might think about my bets. I know, it's extremely silly and vain but nevertheless true.
Same here I posted for almost every event the first months of the year, but on top of that it just takes too much time to write up all my bets multiple times. I play maybe 40-50 bets before each and at times just as many during the event. Just keeping track on everything on my spreadsheet takes time enough
 
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