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Yeah. I was the same. Wikicapped/went from memory and thought Cummings'd be a good shot.
Then I actually watched his stuff and it's like... This dude is essentially a mediocre Patrick Cote clone who's picked on some mediocre opposition lately. Both of his subs have been by scrambling on a dubious takedown by a guy that couldn't hang on the feet with him, and I don't believe he can outstrike Alves. I don't see the offensive takedown game to get Alves down, and I don't see the power or striking nous to really trouble him. I mean, Alves was like 2.9 to Perry 6 months ago so it might be that the books know something I don't about his decline, but I don't see how a healthy Alves has much trouble with Cummings.
Cummings' striking is definitely a lot more limited than i thought! I guess this comes down to how badly faded you think Alves is, but he definitely looked pretty good last time out. Maybe the Jim Miller fight is a reason? Alves is actually younger than Cummings but has been fighting since 2001 albeit he has been pretty inactive recently. There may be a post USADA fade going on too and Cummings will be a lot bigger but then I guess so was Cote.