Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

[Sharkey]

This isn't me saying that I like Palladian Bridge either, Blunt. Just me saying that she might be worth a second look from you in this race with some questions surrounding some of the other top contenders.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

This isn't me saying that I like Palladian Bridge either, Blunt. Just me saying that she might be worth a second look from you in this race with some questions surrounding some of the other top contenders.

Thanks, yeah she's interesting for sure and looks to have some nice odds if she can pull off a top 3 finish as well.

 

[Sharkey]

@BluntTrauma21

I hate to give you this news since I know you like her, but according to a couple of people "in the know" Holiday Disguise will be scratching out of that race due to being stuck in quarantine at Linda Rice's Belmont barn. Not official yet, though, and won't be until the morning. Getting this bit of info early can still be used to your advantage since very few people are going to know about it until tomorrow. You'll be prepared for the news whereas others tomorrow will have to do some scrambling once the scratch is announced.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

@BluntTrauma21

I hate to give you this news since I know you like her, but according to a couple of people "in the know" Holiday Disguise will be scratching out of that race due to being stuck in quarantine at Linda Rice's Belmont barn. Not official yet, though, and won't be until the morning. Getting this bit of info early can still be used to your advantage since very few people are going to know about it until tomorrow. You'll be prepared for the news whereas others tomorrow will have to do some scrambling once the scratch is announced.

Damn unfortunate. Thanks for the info, good catch on that. Would rather she be scratched than run if she's not fully ready. Leaves the race wider open now, that's for sure. Gonna sleep on it then make a play, I think. Makes Palladian that much more interesting too, considering there'll be one less short odds horse in the running.

edit actually do I make a play now before most ppl know about the scratch? That could be a bad idea to wait on it, Idk.

 

[Sharkey]

Damn unfortunate. Thanks for the info, good catch on that. Would rather she be scratched than run if she's not fully ready. Leaves the race wider open now, that's for sure. Gonna sleep on it then make a play, I think. Makes Palladian that much more interesting too, considering there'll be one less short odds horse in the running.

edit actually do I make a play now before most ppl know about the scratch? That could be a bad idea to wait on it, Idk.

Can you lock in a play now with your book? If you can, and if the line is still offered up for Holiday Disguise, then absolutely just because you'll be getting that much more value tonight than you would tomorrow on whatever you decide. Your thoughts about playing it small is a great idea too it being your first race and all. That's probably the way to go for the first little while as well. Once you start building up your confidence after cashing bets (which you will quite often) then you could maybe increase the wagers a bit. But that's down the road.

And please, let the rest of us know what you're playing will you. I'll be tailing for sure regardless of which way you go.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Can you lock in a play now with your book? If you can, and if the line is still offered up for Holiday Disguise, then absolutely just because you'll be getting that much more value tonight than you would tomorrow on whatever you decide. Your thoughts about playing it small is a great idea too it being your first race and all. That's probably the way to go for the first little while as well. Once you start building up your confidence after cashing bets (which you will quite often) then you could maybe increase the wagers a bit. But that's down the road.

And please, let the rest of us know what you're playing will you. I'll be tailing for sure regardless of which way you go.

Yeah I can bet it now and HD isn't scratched yet. Definitely keeping it small here. I just watched a few races and Quezon and Absatootly are chalk but they seem to always be right with one another, some horse named Picco uno is constantly with them as well, it seems. maybe good to look out for her in the future.

Both look like than can sit back and wait or keep more of an early pace up front, although Absatootly looked like she ran out of steam a bit near the end there in her December run.

Haven't watched much tape, just came across a few vids. I think if one of those horses is up there then other could possibly challenge them just based on being better horses than the others but also familiarity with one another. Probably getting ahead of myself there, I'm assuming a lot of shit I shouldn't be.

But yeah, very small and playing this one more for fun than anything, sticking with the chalk but these two seem familiar with one another and are competitive at higher ratings than most of the others. 4 bucks on an exacta box with Quezon and Absatootly so altogether in for 8 which I'm more than okay with. That's gonna be it tho unless you think Palladian is worth a shot to play as well then i'll follow you on that as well. Win or lose it's been fun, should be fun to watch just to see how it plays out and b/d what I did right and wrong once the race is ran, moreso than the few dollars involved. That would just be a bonus for me at this point, haha.

once again, sorry to sound like I'm kissing ass but this really has been fun, Shark. Thanks for all the guidance and being patient with me. I'm a sponge ready to take in as much info my small brain can hold, lol. This is a sport that interests me way more than capping basketball or football for some reason. Maybe b/c I don't like pt spreads or it's just a cool ass sport.

 

[Sharkey]

Yeah I can bet it now and HD isn't scratched yet. Definitely keeping it small here. I just watched a few races and Quezon and Absatootly are chalk but they seem to always be right with one another, some horse named Picco uno is constantly with them as well, it seems. maybe good to look out for her in the future.

Both look like than can sit back and wait or keep more of an early pace up front, although Absatootly looked like she ran out of steam a bit near the end there in her December run.

Haven't watched much tape, just came across a few vids. I think if one of those horses is up there then other could possibly challenge them just based on being better horses than the others but also familiarity with one another. Probably getting ahead of myself there, I'm assuming a lot of shit I shouldn't be.

But yeah, very small and playing this one more for fun than anything, sticking with the chalk but these two seem familiar with one another and are competitive at higher ratings than most of the others. 4 bucks on an exacta box with Quezon and Absatootly so altogether in for 8 which I'm more than okay with. That's gonna be it tho unless you think Palladian is worth a shot to play as well then i'll follow you on that as well. Win or lose it's been fun, should be fun to watch just to see how it plays out and b/d what I did right and wrong once the race is ran, moreso than the few dollars involved. That would just be a bonus for me at this point, haha.

once again, sorry to sound like I'm kissing ass but this really has been fun, Shark. Thanks for all the guidance and being patient with me. I'm a sponge ready to take in as much info my small brain can hold, lol. This is a sport that interests me way more than capping basketball or football for some reason. Maybe b/c I don't like pt spreads or it's just a cool ass sport.

An exacta box it is for me too then with Quezon and Absatootly. Nice.

Thanks so much for the work you did and the picks at the end, Blunt. I'm quite proud of the way you handled this all and I feel really good about your picks win or lose. I wouldn't worry about trying to look for something you missed if it doesn't hit, though, because you've looked at everything already and formed great opinions based on what you saw. If we do lose here it is likely going to be based on something that we can't predict. Maybe the horse gets a troubled trip in the race. Or it just doesn't feel like running that day for whatever reason. Just chalk that down to simply saying "shit happens", which it does in this game. Keep looking at races the way you did here, and forming good opinions based on what you've studied in the PP's, and you'll come out ahead in the end with these type of races. I can't guarantee that because, you know, "shit happens" beyond our control. But you'll have a great chance to do that.

Cheers Blunt. If there are any other races in the future you are looking at then let me know (like that filly race this weekend you mentioned), and we'll see if there are any applicable angles in it that I haven't told you about yet. We can look at those races together and see what we can make of it. This first race, though, I wanted you to form opinion all on your own just because I think that's the best way to learn. And you did absolutely tremendous in that regard. You really did.

 

[Sharkey]

There's an interesting 15/1 horse running in the G3 Lecomte (early Derby prep) on Saturday at the Fair Grounds in a race where there are reasons to play against the two favourites.

 

[t6p]

I'm just glad I haven't broken your brain yet, my friend. You've taken a lot in over the last couple of days and yet have still formed some great opinions.

Well I can say for sure that you guys have broken my brain, haha.

But seriously @BluntTrauma21 @Sharkey really awesome stuff. Amazing for those of us who are very casual racing fans, but want to learn more. Thanks guys.

 

[Sharkey]

Well I can say for sure that you guys have broken my brain, haha.

But seriously @BluntTrauma21 @Sharkey really awesome stuff. Amazing for those of us who are very casual racing fans, but want to learn more. Thanks guys.

Cheers T.

And hey, if you ever feel like joining us with some capping then by all means. After the headache goes of course.

 

[Sharkey]

"8th - 4" being Holiday Disguise, so it is official now.

@BluntTrauma21

I forgot to mention a powerful tool in the Brisnet PP's that very often points to the eventual winner of the race ahead, and that's the racing speed average (Rcg Spd Avg) column down there in the Race Summary section. I don't use it much myself just because I like to figure stuff out on my own. But for a quick indicator that points to the likely winner of any given race look for any horse that has a 5 or more point advantage over their competitors their racing against in that column. Not that these types are great win bets just because they are going to be bet down regardless. But you can still make money off of those that do if you want to key them in the top spot in exactas, trifectas, and supers.

 

[Sharkey]

Tailing Blunt today. That's even if they get the race in since the weather is looking pretty terrible at Aqueduct right now with the rain/snow and wind. The 1st race of the card there has been delayed. Muddy track if they do get things going.

Aqueduct Race 8 (La Verdad Stakes);

$10 exacta with the #6 Quezon over the #2 Absatootly
$5 exacta with the #2 Absatootly over the #6 Quezon

Reversed it for half since that order should pay about double.

Get hot @BluntTrauma21!

 

[Sharkey]

Wouldn't shock me in the least if they cancelled the rest of this Aqueduct card. In fact I'm kind of expecting it since the weather there looks like it's gotten worse not better since the last time I looked in.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

I live upstate but it's all shit up here as well.

 

[Sharkey]

Cancelled. Bah. The weather wasn't that bad really.

More like cancelled due to @BluntTrauma21 about to take everyone's money.

 

[Sharkey]

I live upstate but it's all shit up here as well.

*shrugs*

Sorry about that, bud. That sucks after the amount of work you putting into capping it. What can you do, though. You got another race this weekend you want to try? Haha. I know you mentioned that filly race already down at the Fair Grounds, and I know I'm going to try the Lecomte.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

Cancelled. Bah. The weather wasn't that bad really.

More like cancelled due to @BluntTrauma21 about to take everyone's money.

haha, they're already scared of me, Shark! Hopefully it clears up some tomorrow.

 

[BluntTrauma21]

*shrugs*

Sorry about that, bud. That sucks after the amount of work you putting into capping it. What can you do, though. You got another race this weekend you want to try? Haha. I know you mentioned that filly race already down at the Fair Grounds, and I know I'm going to try the Lecomte.

It's alright, like you said, shit happens. Sure why not, I'm home today so I've got plenty of time to look into some. Can you run me through what you're looking at in the Lecomte so far?

 

[Sharkey]

It's alright, like you said, shit happens. Sure why not, I'm home today so I've got plenty of time to look into some. Can you run me through what you're looking at in the Lecomte so far?

http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/OVERANALYZE/2010/summary.html

Fair Grounds Race 9 beside Analyze This Jet.

I only gave the PP's a once over so far, but the #1 horse, Lone Sailor (15/1), is getting blinkers added for this race tomorrow (noted on top of his PP's underneath his prime power rating). Blinkers being that mask that you see a lot of horses wear if you didn't know. Like Creator wore when he ran. That's a move that trainers make when they want to improve a horse's focus and concentration since the blinkers make the horse focus more on what's ahead of him and less on what's behind him (they can't see behind themselves with blinkers). It's generally a positive move to improve a horse and I'm already seeing evidence of that potential improvement with this guy just based on his workout tab. Now this is me making the assumption that the decision to put blinkers on him was made right after his last race (you're not going to throw something on a horse in a graded stakes race without testing it out first, right?), but take note of his improvements in times; His workout on Dec 14th was the fastest he ever worked for 5F and was a bullet (fastest on the day at that disance as designated by the 1/25). Then his workout on Dec 22nd was the fastest he ever worked 4F and was a near bullet (2/82). There isn't another 6F workout on his page to compare to, but just by itself a 1:13 for 6F is a fast time for a workout, which he did on Dec 29th. My read on this is that the blinkers have definitely helped this guy out and sharpened up his focus. I also like his last workout just based on the time as well, as that to me points to a horse that was just in maintenance mode with that workout as he already got the fitness needed from his 3 previous fast workouts.

This guy also looks pretty good even if he wasn't making that positive move to blinkers. Not as good as some on paper, but better than most just based on his races without blinkers. I also see some reasons to play against both the favourites, but I'll leave that to you to see if you can see them. What do you think, bud?

 

[Sharkey]

Jesus, a guy does 3 days of capping, forms some outstanding opinions along the way and yet he isn't even going to get the chance to see if it pays off or not. At least not today. Rough game this is.