http://www.brisnet.com/cgi-bin/briswatch.cgi/public/Winstar_Farm_LLC/OVERANALYZE/2010/summary.html
Fair Grounds Race 9 beside Analyze This Jet.
I only gave the PP's a once over so far, but the #1 horse, Lone Sailor (15/1), is getting blinkers added for this race tomorrow (noted on top of his PP's underneath his prime power rating). Blinkers being that mask that you see a lot of horses wear if you didn't know. Like Creator wore when he ran. That's a move that trainers make when they want to improve a horse's focus and concentration since the blinkers make the horse focus more on what's ahead of him and less on what's behind him (they can't see behind themselves with blinkers). It's generally a positive move to improve a horse and I'm already seeing evidence of that potential improvement with this guy just based on his workout tab. Now this is me making the assumption that the decision to put blinkers on him was made right after his last race (you're not going to throw something on a horse in a graded stakes race without testing it out first, right?), but take note of his improvements in times; His workout on Dec 14th was the fastest he ever worked for 5F and was a bullet (fastest on the day at that disance as designated by the 1/25). Then his workout on Dec 22nd was the fastest he ever worked 4F and was a near bullet (2/82). There isn't another 6F workout on his page to compare to, but just by itself a 1:13 for 6F is a fast time for a workout, which he did on Dec 29th. My read on this is that the blinkers have definitely helped this guy out and sharpened up his focus. I also like his last workout just based on the time as well, as that to me points to a horse that was just in maintenance mode with that workout as he already got the fitness needed from his 3 previous fast workouts.
This guy also looks pretty good even if he wasn't making that positive move to blinkers. Not as good as some on paper, but better than most just based on his races without blinkers. I also see some reasons to play against both the favourites, but I'll leave that to you to see if you can see them. What do you think, bud?
Talking about ?'s for one of the favorites, Wonder Gadot, hasn't raced against any males in her career yet. That's gotta be something to consider, I'd assume.
I also think you mentioned this to me before, @Sharkey, I'll go back itt and check again, but I'm pretty sure you said to look out for a horse that ran way better than it had previously in its last race, to possibly have a letdown in their next race and run more back to form, in the next coming race/s.
I noticed that with Instilled Regard, he was running 87/83/85 in his three previous before exploding up to 100 his last time out. I don't know if he could just be young and coming into form, but I thought about what you said prior and that could apply to Regard here, esp him being only 4/1.
Think I'm going this way in the G3 Lecomte;
- $5 to win and $10 to show on the #1 Lone Sailor
- $2 exacta box with the #1 Lone Sailor, #5 Kowboy Karma, and #12 Principe Guilherme
The finish of Instilled Regards' last race is bugging me too much with the way he flattened out late after looking like he'd go right on by, the way he was veering in and out in the stretch, and with the way he kept switching between lead legs late. All the signs of a very tired horse, so I'll try to beat him completely today considering he has to ship across country (for the 1st time) after that effort and will be a short price. He can win, though, for sure.
You broke this one down way more than I could ever dream of doing at this point. I'm following those plays, thank you for running me through your capping process, very interesting and insightful as always, my friend.
I'll try to take a look at the filly race some more as well and hopefully get some useful info and get your opinion on it before I play anything.
At quick glance, unsurprisingly I'm with you on America's Tale for the silverbulletday. Several scratches here, but most seem to have been longshots with not too much of a chance to beat the top ladies in this race by the looks of it.
I don't know if this is a good thing to start with, would like your feedback on this Shark, but I've made it kind of a habit to combine the last 3 rr's and cr's together and do the math to see where the horses stand in that 3-5pt area. Then I take the power ratings and list them to see which horses are within or close to that 10pt cutoff and kind of combine them to get a preliminary look at the horses involved.
America's Tale is right there in power rating, sits a bit behind the front runners in Gadot and Blonde Bomber in avg rr/cr's but then again no other horse is within a few pts of them other than Heavenly Love who is also at short odds. America's Tale looks like she has some solid things going for her and several of her ratings are right up there with the favorites despite having much better odds. Looking for a fresh face, I definitely like her to be right up there with the others from a quickish overlook of it.
Love it, feeling good abut America's Tale from everything you've mentioned, just played it the same way with Missive to show. I have a good feeling for today, hopefully that plays out later.What do you think about this @BluntTrauma21?
$5 to win on America's Tale
$8 to show on Missive
The amounts don't matter much. Might be my new found OCD coming up with those numbers since I'm going to be in on the Lecomte for $27, which, with the $13 here, brings me to a nice round number of $40. But do you like those plays? Or you thinking of trying for more here with exactas or something?
Love it, feeling good abut America's Tale from everything you've mentioned, just played it the same way with Missive to show. I have a good feeling for today, hopefully that plays out later.
Thanks yeah I am just trying to find an early look combining those numbers along with the power ratings to see what horse should be ranked where at first look. Then go from there with some more advanced stuff once we get there and I get some more lessons under my belt. Trying to pay more attention to workouts, pairing the speeds, that bounce theory you mentioned, but I'm getting ahead of myself, for sure, haha.
Btw do you have any links to the races? I have to call and get tvg back now I gotta go try to find a stream but haven't been able to find one? Any legal ones you know of?
Thanks, yeah I'll check to see if I can find one of those books. One sticks out to me, not sure if I'm allowed to sign up tho, b/c the US sucks when it comes to gambling and this site might not allow Us customers. Maybe i can get an otb stream or something, too. Gonna try tho, found another stream that might find it. Called "at the races" which I've seen before, think there's a good chance they'll show them.Ah shit. No, I'm not sure where you can find a stream, bud. I just looked at the track's page and they don't have one. At least as far as I can see. Couldn't find one with a quick look anywhere else either. Do you have a racebook account by chance that shows the races? Or know of a racebook that shows the races and also allows you to open an account without a deposit? You still have 1.5 hours to do so if you can.
Thanks, yeah I'll check to see if I can find one of those books. One sticks out to me, not sure if I'm allowed to sign up tho, b/c the US sucks when it comes to gambling and this site might not allow Us customers. Maybe i can get an otb stream or something, too. Gonna try tho, found another stream that might find it. Called "at the races" which I've seen before, think there's a good chance they'll show them.