UFN 126 - Cowboy vs Medeiros - Austin

Status
Not open for further replies.
There is absolutely 0 chance that Yancy hits harder than Till and Mas can crack too.
I for sure think Yancy has equal if not more power in his hands than Masvidal, maybe not the same snap to it though
 
Hard to say since both Lawler and Cerrone have been fighting absolute monsters. Lawler hasn't had an easy fight since 2013 when he KO'd Bobby Voelker silly. Hard to rack up KO's against the top 10 of the WW division. Same with Cerrone, last time he fought guys on Yancy's level he finished them all in succession: Matt Brown, Rick Story, Cote, BC.

Kinda going down a rabbit hole, but you can't just look at KO % to determine how hard someone hits. Mas can clearly crack, even when he wasn't KO'ing guys he was regularily hurting guys, Lawler too. RDA can make almost anyone look bad fwiw.

Outside of Cowboy fight, Mas has 4 knockdowns in his last 18 fights. Yancy has 5 knockdowns in his last 3 fights.

I can't buy any narrative that Mas hits harder than Yancy. He has better technique, better striking defense, and is better overall. But he doesn't hit harder.

Lawler closed +100 vs RDA and Cerrone was a fave vs Till, and both looked +500. This is a sign that their reputations both exceed their current fighting ability.

I'd buy your murderer's row theory if Cerrone showed more offense in any of his past 3 fights and was losing close battles. But Lawler hasn't dominated in forever and he looked completely hopeless vs Mas + Till. Bojan Velickovic arguably put up a better fight against Till than Cowboy did.

Hard to believe that somebody who was so dominant for so long has already declined this much, but he loves to drink/party, has a ton of mileage, doesn't seem to be the most intelligent fighter...maybe the age cliff came early for him.

I say this all as somebody who was ITCHING to bet against Yancy after his BC win. I think both fighters are going to land, but Yancy's strikes are going to hurt more and he is much more likely to finish. IMO odds should be flipped with Yancy being -145
 
Absolutely agree with you, just 2 things:
Trinaldo said in one of the interviews before fighting Miller that he has take a lesson from his loss to Lee and he will never hold his hands down again.
And second, i think Vick`s striking offence is def improving but his striking defence is getting worse (correct me if i am wrong).

Interesting, re: Trin holding his hands low. Old habits might die hard on a 40 year old guy though, especially if/when he does slow down. I'd have to go back and watch, but I think I did notice him keep them up against Miller.

I'm not sure that it's gotten worse, honestly. It's always been pretty bad IMO.
 
I'm adding 0.5u to Trinaldo decision at +420. I think it's a bit more likely than him finishing and the price is better.
 
My initial thought on Vick vs Trinaldo was that it would open close to a pick em, with Vick maybe a very small favorite coming off what was the best performance of his career against Duffy. After looking into it some more, I still feel the same way. I can't see any justification for Vick being a -230 favorite here.

Like @Stunna77 already mentioned, Vick has shown himself to be vulnerable against southpaws, getting dropped twice in the first round against both Hein and Dariush, the only two southpaws he's faced. Vick's defense isn't great, he often leaves himself open for counters, which could be a major issue for him in this fight. Trinaldo throws a hard left hand counter and Vick's chin is a bit of a question mark. Also, the last time that Vick stepped up to this level of competition, it went very badly for him. Another concern for me is that Vick at times has been a slow starter, where as Trin typically comes out strong.

All that said, I can't be overly confident in Trinaldo either. I think we're starting to see improvements from fight to fight with Vick. He's become more effective at utilizing his reach, particularly using his jab. I think it's possible that this could wear on Trinaldo as the fight moves along, as it did with Duffy. Which brings me to my main concern here, which is Trin's gas tank. As he fatigues he starts to hold his hands lower and lower and his strikes become much more telegraphed. But, even when he's visibly gassed, his footwork does remain pretty solid and he still seems to carry a lot of his power. Another worry is that Trin has a tendency to shoot when he gets hurt and Vick is dangerous at locking up chokes with those long arms. Lastly, and this might be stupid, but eye pokes could be an issue here. I don't remember all the exact fights off the top of my head, but Vick constantly sticks his fingers straight out and has eye poked a high percentage of his opponents. It happened twice in the first round against Dariush.

There's going to be a few props that I'll be looking for but as of now I have 2u Trinaldo at +180 in what I see as close to a coin flip. I also expect Trinaldo to have a good first round, maybe even get a finish, so I'll be watching live bet closely if he seems to slowing down.

Vick eye pokes almost every opponent to the point where the ref should warn him before the fight starts and deduct a point for a blatant poke.
 
I for sure think Yancy has equal if not more power in his hands than Masvidal, maybe not the same snap to it though

I should have had a comma in my post "no way he hits harder than Till, and Mas can crack too."
 
Outside of Cowboy fight, Mas has 4 knockdowns in his last 18 fights. Yancy has 5 knockdowns in his last 3 fights.

I can't buy any narrative that Mas hits harder than Yancy. He has better technique, better striking defense, and is better overall. But he doesn't hit harder.

Lawler closed +100 vs RDA and Cerrone was a fave vs Till, and both looked +500. This is a sign that their reputations both exceed their current fighting ability.

I'd buy your murderer's row theory if Cerrone showed more offense in any of his past 3 fights and was losing close battles. But Lawler hasn't dominated in forever and he looked completely hopeless vs Mas + Till. Bojan Velickovic arguably put up a better fight against Till than Cowboy did.

Hard to believe that somebody who was so dominant for so long has already declined this much, but he loves to drink/party, has a ton of mileage, doesn't seem to be the most intelligent fighter...maybe the age cliff came early for him.

I say this all as somebody who was ITCHING to bet against Yancy after his BC win. I think both fighters are going to land, but Yancy's strikes are going to hurt more and he is much more likely to finish. IMO odds should be flipped with Yancy being -145

Yancy much more likely to finish? Are you completetly discouting Cowboy;s ability to take this to the mat where he will run circles around Yancy?
 
Yancy much more likely to finish? Are you completetly discouting Cowboy;s ability to take this to the mat where he will run circles around Yancy?

Is there any evidence that Cerrone will run circles on the mat? Yancy is a BJJ black belt, and my understanding was the only reason he never uses it is bc he doesn't have the wrestling to take the fight to the ground.

Edit-- nvm, can't find any evidence that he is a black belt dunno why I thought that. But he has some nice chokes and escaped from Brazilian Cowboy taking his back, doesn't seem like his jiu jitsu is bad by any stretch and Cowboy may have declined like the rest of his game.
 
Last edited:
Yancy much more likely to finish? Are you completetly discouting Cowboy;s ability to take this to the mat where he will run circles around Yancy?
Yancy isn’t a bad grappler in his own right.
 
Yancy isn’t a bad grappler in his own right.

No, but Cerrone is on a different level IMO. I feel pretty confident in saying that Yancy would much prefer to keep this fight standing. He definitely doesn't want Cerrone on top of him.
 
If Cowboy's odds go down a bit, ill prob switch sides from my small Yancy bet
 
Is there any evidence that Cerrone will run circles on the mat? Yancy is a BJJ black belt, and my understanding was the only reason he never uses it is bc he doesn't have the wrestling to take the fight to the ground.

Edit-- nvm, can't find any evidence that he is a black belt dunno why I thought that. But he has some nice chokes and escaped from Brazilian Cowboy taking his back, doesn't seem like his jiu jitsu is bad by any stretch and Cowboy may have declined like the rest of his game.

Remember what Cerrone did to BC on the mat?
 
Guys leaning Vick, thoughts on why you think he takes it? Assuming you like him to pick Trinaldo apart at range, maybe find a KO or choke?

Trin seems to only struggle with strong grapplers, I think he can take Vick down here if he wants and he has nasty GnP. Just seems to me Trin has more options and is just as likely, if not more likely, to finish (Trin never been KO'd and is a good grappler himself).

Vick is a massive lightweight. Massive. It’s almost not fair. And he uses his reach well. He can control range and has a good jab.,

That being sad we know he’s a flawed fighter. The naked kicks would get him knocked out at welterweight. I can see Trinaldo coming over the top with a big left after vick leg kicks.

I can’t pass +175 on Trinaldo.
 
Remember what Cerrone did to BC on the mat?

Yeah but that was 2 years ago and Cerrone seems to have seriously declined while BC is improving. IMO a rematch would look vastly different.

I do agree that the ground game opens up a possible path to victory for Cerrone, and is a point in his favor. But I don't think it's anywhere near certain that he dominates Yancy on the ground or that he is even able to take the fight there.

I would summarize my argument to this

--Prime Cerrone would dominate Yancy in his prime, but at this point he has been KO'd early by so many guys who don't rack up KO's (Mas, Till, RDA) that you can't make him a huge fave vs anybody with pop. Kinda like Rockhold.

--His offense looked dreadful vs Mas + Till prior to the KO. It's not like he just got caught-- he looked bad leading up to it.

--At this point the only recent fight he has to hang his hat on is his decision vs Lawler, who hadn't fought well since his Rory fight 2 years prior. And Cerrone didn't even win, he just didn't get dominated.

So to some extent we are guessing how much he has declined...if he has only declined a little and just has a bad chin, then he still should be -200 tops. And if the age cliff came early for him due to excessive partying and tons of mileage + damage taken, he may perform like a +350 dog.

Again, being cautious bc I am aware of the massive holes in Yancy's game, and I'm not certain that Cowboy is done...but just seems like there is much more wiggle room for Yancy to be massively +EV at +130 than vice versa.
 
I think that Cerrone is clearly better than Yancy at every aspect of mma.

The problem is that both guys are hittable and Cerrones ability to take damage might be nearly deteriorated and Medeiros has pop.

The bet to make, imo, is the fight does not go the distance.
 
So to some extent we are guessing how much he has declined...if he has only declined a little and just has a bad chin, then he still should be -200 tops. And if the age cliff came early for him due to excessive partying and tons of mileage + damage taken, he may perform like a +350 dog.

There is a pattern here that I feel the need to bring up. You often assert things as known fact with no evidence. You even go so far as to blatantly make things up. Even if you're on the right side here, I hope no one listens to you or they do so very carefully. I'm sure you'll spew vitriol but before you do, consider the double meaning of this handy gif:

giphy.gif
 
Yeah but that was 2 years ago and Cerrone seems to have seriously declined while BC is improving. IMO a rematch would look vastly different.

I do agree that the ground game opens up a possible path to victory for Cerrone, and is a point in his favor. But I don't think it's anywhere near certain that he dominates Yancy on the ground or that he is even able to take the fight there.

I would summarize my argument to this

--Prime Cerrone would dominate Yancy in his prime, but at this point he has been KO'd early by so many guys who don't rack up KO's (Mas, Till, RDA) that you can't make him a huge fave vs anybody with pop. Kinda like Rockhold.

--His offense looked dreadful vs Mas + Till prior to the KO. It's not like he just got caught-- he looked bad leading up to it.

--At this point the only recent fight he has to hang his hat on is his decision vs Lawler, who hadn't fought well since his Rory fight 2 years prior. And Cerrone didn't even win, he just didn't get dominated.

So to some extent we are guessing how much he has declined...if he has only declined a little and just has a bad chin, then he still should be -200 tops. And if the age cliff came early for him due to excessive partying and tons of mileage + damage taken, he may perform like a +350 dog.

Again, being cautious bc I am aware of the massive holes in Yancy's game, and I'm not certain that Cowboy is done...but just seems like there is much more wiggle room for Yancy to be massively +EV at +130 than vice versa.

If Cowboy has declined significantly (not saying he has, but IF he has), his grappling isn't really the place that it will show.

He's just a better grappler than Yancy, period.
 
There is a pattern here that I feel the need to bring up. You often assert things as known fact with no evidence. You even go so far as to blatantly make things up. Even if you're on the right side here, I hope no one listens to you or they do so very carefully. I'm sure you'll spew vitriol but before you do, consider the double meaning of this handy gif:

giphy.gif

Why the fuck would I want people to listen to me lol. If ppl listen to me I get worse odds.

The day you guys start listening to me is the day I stop posting here.
 
If Cowboy has declined significantly (not saying he has, but IF he has), his grappling isn't really the place that it will show.

He's just a better grappler than Yancy, period.

Yes this is a fair point and throws a wrench to any Yancy bet.

But I do think athleticism is fairly important for wrestling and scrambling for position. Even if his BJJ technique is better than Yancy, I doubt he is dominant as he was on the mat at peak athleticism.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Forum statistics

Threads
1,234,833
Messages
55,310,903
Members
174,733
Latest member
NiTrok
Back
Top