Kentucky Derby...and Beyond?

t6p said:
Are you talking about Justify looking great in workouts Shark?
Click to expand...

Yeah, basically. I was hoping to see some signs of a tired horse the last couple of mornings, but there were none at all. He looks as eager, energetic, and attentive as he ever has. Still a week and a half to go though.
 
Just doing some preliminary Belmont stuff (numbers, pedigree stuff, etc), and so far Tenfold is looking like my best alternative if I do try to beat Justify in that race. Hmm. I figured it would be Hofburg or Vino Rosso who looked like the biggest threats for the upset, but so far in these early stages it's Tenfold. Have him ranked 2nd on my early numbers. He has tremendous breeding for the 12F distance with his sire being Curlin (1-1-1 sire record last 5 Belmonts) and his dam sire being Tapit (3-1-1 sire record last 5 Belmonts), and is no worse than 2nd to Hofburg when it comes to that. He has that nice even energy distribution to his running style which so often works very well in the Belmont. He has a very nice slowly improving pattern to his numbers without even one small regression which suggests there's still some further improvement coming. He's only had the four races so far in his career so the energy levels should be there for him to stand a decent enough chance to show that improvement next Saturday. He's going into the Belmont with both the new pace top and E2 pace angles I like. I like that he's only ever raced in route races over a mile in distance, so his connections obviously think the longer the better for him. He's also shown nice length to his stride in all his races, although I do wish he didn't run with the high leg action that he has.

Huh. Tenfold hey? The same question going into the Derby and Preakness might apply here too. But that's not a bad payoff even if it does since Tenfold is likely only the 4th or 5th choice at best. And if Justify is a bit worn out and is sitting on a regressive race well then shit.


==========

Justify - 562.4
Tenfold - 504.9
Vino Rosso - 496.3
Bravazo - 492.8
Hofburg - 492.6
Blended Citizen - 481.6
Noble Indy - 455.2
Free Drop Billy - 442.7
Restoring Hope - 439.1

==========


I didn't do the numbers for Gronkowski or that other European bum who might enter (who the hell is Bandua anyways?) because I can't with this formula, nor do I think it's even necessary. These are also a tiny bit incomplete as well since jockeys and final workouts weren't included in them, although that's not going to matter much save for maybe moving Hofburg above Bravazo. I would prefer Tenfold get a jockey who's more familiar with riding the Belmont track, though.
 
Shit, I just realized that there will be two Triple Crowns on the line in the Belmont. Justify's of course. Then we also have our resident trifecta crushing Triple Crown grand master @t6p going for his 3rd trifecta in a row as well.
 
Sharkey said:
Shit, I just realized that there will be two Triple Crowns on the line in the Belmont. Justify's of course. Then we also have our resident trifecta crushing Triple Crown grand master @t6p going for his 3rd trifecta in a row as well.
Click to expand...

"When he's put out to stud, I'll take the firstborn."--Rumplestiltskin
 
Sharkey said:
Shit, I just realized that there will be two Triple Crowns on the line in the Belmont. Justify's of course. Then we also have our resident trifecta crushing Triple Crown grand master @t6p going for his 3rd trifecta in a row as well.
Click to expand...

Haha, I actually burst out laughing at work reading that Shark. The pressure is on now though....
 
Have a quiet morning ahead of me, so I figured I'd get back into things a little bit after a few days off and see if I could find something to play;

Race 1 at Woodbine - #7 Indiantown Sunrise 5/1 (27.8% = 5/2 fair odds)

I'm also going to try betting different amounts based on whatever chances I give the horses (expanded the calculations on this by a bunch since my initial idea a few weeks ago). 20% = $20, 25% = $25, 30% = $30, etc. In this one's case it'll be a $25 win bet for me if I get a little better than 5/2 on it come post time.
 
Sharkey said:
Have a quiet morning ahead of me, so I figured I'd get back into things a little bit after a few days off and see if I could find something to play;

Race 1 at Woodbine - #7 Indiantown Sunrise 5/1 (27.8% = 5/2 fair odds)

I'm also going to try betting different amounts based on whatever chances I give the horses (expanded the calculations on this by a bunch since my initial idea a few weeks ago). 20% = $20, 25% = $25, 30% = $30, etc. In this one's case it'll be a $25 win bet for me if I get a little better than 5/2 on it come post time.
Click to expand...

Got it done at 9/2. Very nice.
 
Take some time off, swoop back into it, and collect a nice $112 in total profit. Beautiful.
 
Sharkey said:
Just doing some preliminary Belmont stuff (numbers, pedigree stuff, etc), and so far Tenfold is looking like my best alternative if I do try to beat Justify in that race. Hmm. I figured it would be Hofburg or Vino Rosso who looked like the biggest threats for the upset, but so far in these early stages it's Tenfold. Have him ranked 2nd on my early numbers. He has tremendous breeding for the 12F distance with his sire being Curlin (1-1-1 sire record last 5 Belmonts) and his dam sire being Tapit (3-1-1 sire record last 5 Belmonts), and is no worse than 2nd to Hofburg when it comes to that. He has that nice even energy distribution to his running style which so often works very well in the Belmont. He has a very nice slowly improving pattern to his numbers without even one small regression which suggests there's still some further improvement coming. He's only had the four races so far in his career so the energy levels should be there for him to stand a decent enough chance to show that improvement next Saturday. He's going into the Belmont with both the new pace top and E2 pace angles I like. I like that he's only ever raced in route races over a mile in distance, so his connections obviously think the longer the better for him. He's also shown nice length to his stride in all his races, although I do wish he didn't run with the high leg action that he has.

Huh. Tenfold hey? The same question going into the Derby and Preakness might apply here too. But that's not a bad payoff even if it does since Tenfold is likely only the 4th or 5th choice at best. And if Justify is a bit worn out and is sitting on a regressive race well then shit.


==========

Justify - 562.4
Tenfold - 504.9
Vino Rosso - 496.3
Bravazo - 492.8
Hofburg - 492.6
Blended Citizen - 481.6
Noble Indy - 455.2
Free Drop Billy - 442.7
Restoring Hope - 439.1

==========


I didn't do the numbers for Gronkowski or that other European bum who might enter (who the hell is Bandua anyways?) because I can't with this formula, nor do I think it's even necessary. These are also a tiny bit incomplete as well since jockeys and final workouts weren't included in them, although that's not going to matter much save for maybe moving Hofburg above Bravazo. I would prefer Tenfold get a jockey who's more familiar with riding the Belmont track, though.
Click to expand...
YES! Hofburg has the most impressive Belmont pedigree, being the son of Tapit (3 of 4 last Belmont winners have been Tapit sons) and the out of a mare that is sired by a Belmont winner. That being said, I feel people often look at the pedigree too much and don't look at the horse in front of them. What Tenfold has that Hofburg does not is a massive stride, a high cruising speed and is a big horse with a big engine - if you remember Tonalist, he was the biggest horse in the race, had a massive stride, and recently it is the horse with the longest stride and highest cruising speed that wins (also see Pharoah who had a 27 foot stride). And as you point out, Tenfold is also bred for the Belmont and has an amazing trainer.

Now, here is what I don't like based on his work out: he is one of the best looking movers on the track, no doubt, neck bowed and very efficient. What I don't like is that he has a tie down, which basically restricts his head movement and is a training tool to keep his head down and bowed. This is often a sign that the horse can be unruly, is not supple to pressure and can lose form by running with his head too high and out of alignment. Tie downs are not allowed in racing, so I look to see how he does come race day, and how differently he looks from his work outs.

Again, I feel Justify is the horse to beat here, especially based on how he has looked in training, but this is definitely the best race if you are looking to beat him. I think the biggest factor will be if the track is dry - even tho he has won in the mud, I don't believe this horse is a mudder, but has rather been so good that he defied a stacked deck. Look at Bolt D'Oro, the only other horse nearly as heavy as him, and he finished an incredibly disappointing 12th in the KD; it is simple physics, as the larger you are, the more you sink down, the more your larger hooves collect weighted mud, and the more energy you are forced to expend.

And although Justify does not have any major distance horses in his immediate pedigree, it is important to remember that he is a carrier of the large heart gene and also that Ghostzapper, his Mammie's Pappie (where you are said to get distance from), was a sprint horse but also killed it at the mile and a quarter, broke the track record and showed no signs of slowing down against a phenomenal group of horses in the Breeders Cup Classic. I'm not worried about the pedigree. And as far far as the horse himself, he looks the the quintessential Belmont horse, and closely resembles some of Belmont's biggest performers in Easy Goer, Point Given, Secretariat and is trained by Baffert, who yielded two monster Belmonts in PG and American Pharoah.


I'm thinking possibly Justify, Tenfold and Hofburg. Vino Rosso should also be interesting, as he too has the pedigree to run here and succeed, not to mention that I think he is the second best horse in this race after Justify, and certainly the second most proven. I also keep hearing about Blended Citizen being a great exotic and having just rendered a commanding win @ Peter Pan, but to me, he just lacks the pedigree for this distance, but I'm going to do some more research on him.
 
ImNotSurpisedDonks! said:
YES! Hofburg has the most impressive Belmont pedigree, being the son of Tapit (3 of 4 last Belmont winners have been Tapit sons) and the out of a mare that is sired by a Belmont winner. That being said, I feel people often look at the pedigree too much and don't look at the horse in front of them. What Tenfold has that Hofburg does not is a massive stride, a high cruising speed and is a big horse with a big engine - if you remember Tonalist, he was the biggest horse in the race, had a massive stride, and recently it is the horse with the longest stride and highest cruising speed that wins (also see Pharoah who had a 27 foot stride). And as you point out, Tenfold is also bred for the Belmont and has an amazing trainer.

Now, here is what I don't like based on his work out: he is one of the best looking movers on the track, no doubt, neck bowed and very efficient. What I don't like is that he has a tie down, which basically restricts his head movement and is a training tool to keep his head down and bowed. This is often a sign that the horse can be unruly, is not supple to pressure and can lose form by running with his head too high and out of alignment. Tie downs are not allowed in racing, so I look to see how he does come race day, and how differently he looks from his work outs.

Again, I feel Justify is the horse to beat here, especially based on how he has looked in training, but this is definitely the best race if you are looking to beat him. I think the biggest factor will be if the track is dry - even tho he has won in the mud, I don't believe this horse is a mudder, but has rather been so good that he defied a stacked deck. Look at Bolt D'Oro, the only other horse nearly as heavy as him, and he finished an incredibly disappointing 12th in the KD; it is simple physics, as the larger you are, the more you sink down, the more your larger hooves collect weighted mud, and the more energy you are forced to expend.

And although Justify does not have any major distance horses in his immediate pedigree, it is important to remember that he is a carrier of the large heart gene and also that Ghostzapper, his Mammie's Pappie (where you are said to get distance from), was a sprint horse but also killed it at the mile and a quarter, broke the track record and showed no signs of slowing down against a phenomenal group of horses in the Breeders Cup Classic. I'm not worried about the pedigree. And as far far as the horse himself, he looks the the quintessential Belmont horse, and closely resembles some of Belmont's biggest performers in Easy Goer, Point Given, Secretariat and is trained by Baffert, who yielded two monster Belmonts in PG and American Pharoah.


I'm thinking possibly Justify, Tenfold and Hofburg. Vino Rosso should also be interesting, as he too has the pedigree to run here and succeed, not to mention that I think he is the second best horse in this race after Justify, and certainly the second most proven. I also keep hearing about Blended Citizen being a great exotic and having just rendered a commanding win @ Peter Pan, but to me, he just lacks the pedigree for this distance, but I'm going to do some more research on him.
Click to expand...

I think Justify, Tenfold, Hofburg and Vino Rosso are the four to focus on as well, bud. I think there's a very good chance the trifecta involves those horses right there. But I'll leave that up to @t6p to decide for sure. He'll find the right ones once again.

Usually I would give the Peter Pan winner a very good look in the Belmont, and have had success in past years when doing so. But Blended Citizen doesn't do much for me at all this year. For one, that Peter Pan race was a weak rendition this year I thought, and Blended Citizen also got a perfect set up in that race sitting behind a four horse pace battle along the backstretch and then a three horse pace battle around the turn. Those front runners were putting a lot of pressure on each other sitting in a line like they were and the 2nd & 3rd quarter times were also quite fast for the race. That race was just begging for a horse to come from off the pace and get to the wire first. You say "commanding win", I say that was an "underwhelming win" myself, and against a group of horses that weren't much to begin with if looking for a Belmont horse. It was also over an off track, which, as you may know, predominantly turf horses like him tend to handle better than a fast dry track. He's got some distance breeding on the dam side of his pedigree, but like you said, he lacks compared to others in this race. Being a closer he also has poor energy distribution for a 12F race. You'd have to go back 5 races with him to find a race where his pace numbers showed a nice even distribution of his energy. Closers tend to be up against it anyways just because the added distance dulls there late kick, but both Hodburg and Vino Rosso have shown more tactical early speed in some of their races than Blended Citizen (Hofburg stalked the pace setter when breaking his maiden, whereas Vino has only been a closer in fast paced races like the Wood and Derby), as well as races where they distributed their energy better. They're also classier horses who have better pedigrees for the 12F too. Blended Citizen will also be making his 11th career start, and his 5th of his current form cycle, so I have a difficult time seeing him suddenly jump up and run the race of his life when a lot of other things say he's up against it. Saying all that, though, he will be a price in the race. Probably at least 15/1 and maybe even 20/1. So if you can find reasons to like him and can include him then you will get paid if you're right.
 
Bravazo is basically the only real short priced play against horse for me in the Belmont really. He's probably going to be the 2nd choice, maybe the 3rd choice at worst. He's not without a shot to hit the board obviously. But Tenfold, Hofburg, and Vino Rosso all seem better equipped to handle the 12F, and they're also all going into the race fresher and should have more in the tank to put forth a good effort. Like Blended Citizen, it's tough to see Bravazo being set to run a needed peak effort at 12F in his 11th career start and his 6th race of his current form cycle. Justify is going to have obstacles trying to win this race after the Derby & Preakness, and Bravazo is on that same schedule as well having ran in both.
 
But that's a focus for next week. I shouldn't try to make any decisions yet. Also, let's not forget about the Belmont undercard either. It's going to be loaded top to bottom with top horses running in a bunch of G1 races (and a few G2 races as well). The Met Mile, Phipps, Acorn, Just a Game, etc. Most of the top horses in North America will be running on that card.
 



I may be wrong, but I can't see myself putting even $1 on this guy. Like I said he got a perfect setup sitting comfortably behind a four then three horse pace battle with those running internal fractions of a really fast 23.15 over the 2nd quarter and then a fast 24.34 3rd quarter around the turn. Blended Citizen should have won that race and in fact, should have won it much easier than he did if he was any type of threat to make some noise in the Belmont. But there was no acceleration from him. No turn of foot. All he really did was plod along and passed some tired horses who were involved in that earlier pace battle. He has that high knee/leg action that I don't care for, and it's quite a bit worse than Tenfold's. Lots of wasted motion with the way he runs too beyond just the leg action. His stride length is only average as well. A little better than some in the Belmont, but worse than Justify, Hofburg, Tenfold, and Vino Rosso for sure. I think he would need at least 3, maybe 4 of the 5 main contenders to run a dud race in order to hit the board. Possible, but not at all likely in my opinion.
 
Last edited:
I only looked at the Canadian tracks today just because I'm lazy, and it's some slim pickings;

Race 1 at Assiniboia Downs - #5 Good Shot 7/2 (38.3% = 8/5 fair odds)

I'll play this one if I can get 2/1 or better. Just for $20 if I do get those odds as well since I haven't made a bet at this track in 25 years (only track I've ever been to in person) and not sure if it has the outside flow to it that I'm looking for.
 
Sharkey said:
I only looked at the Canadian tracks today just because I'm lazy, and it's some slim pickings;

Race 1 at Assiniboia Downs - #5 Good Shot 7/2 (38.3% = 8/5 fair odds)

I'll play this one if I can get 2/1 or better. Just for $20 if I do get those odds as well since I haven't made a bet at this track in 25 years (only track I've ever been to in person) and not sure if it has the outside flow to it that I'm looking for.
Click to expand...

Muddy track so it's a pass for me regardless of odds on the #5. And holy shit does this Assiniboia track announcer have an annoying voice.
 
That #5 horse got a muddy track, gets way overbet late down to 3/5, crosses the line in 1st, rightfully gets disqualified to 2nd. My only bad decision that race was keeping the volume on during the race and listening to that damn track announcer.
 
Ive been the ass. Downs a few times and i have to agree the announcer is terrible
 
eataface said:
Ive been the ass. Downs a few times and i have to agree the announcer is terrible
Click to expand...

The way he lowered his tone and extended the last syllable of every 3rd word with that whiney voice of his was fucking irritating, Eat. I had enough of him after no more than a minute of listening to him. It was like finger nails on a chalkboard to these ears of mine. I still plan to play the track at times, so I'm either going to have to get used to listening to him. Or, more likely, I'll be finding myself annoyingly mimicking him when he's calling a race.
 
The Belmont Stakes post positions and morning line odds;

#1 Justify 4/5
#2 Free Drop Billy 30/1
#3 Bravazo 8/1
#4 Hofburg 9/2
#5 Restoring Hope 30/1
#6 Gronkowski 12/1
#7 Tenfold 12/1
#8 Vino Rosso 8/1
#9 Noble Indy 30/1
#10 Blended Citizen 15/1


Have at it @t6p!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.

Similar threads

Dillydilly
  • Sportsbook Event
2024 Kentucky Derby - Churchill Downs 6:55pm ET 5-4 Who Wins
Replies
10
Views
299
helax
helax

Latest posts

Forum statistics

Threads
1,238,415
Messages
55,556,684
Members
174,819
Latest member
blunttruth

Share this page

Back
Top