General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - March, 2018

@Oblivian Ortega is +175 against Holloway. Is that enough to entice you to make a bet?

I know we said the same vs Frankie so I hesitate to even ask LOL, but do you see much chance T City wins other than by sub?
 
I know we said the same vs Frankie so I hesitate to even ask LOL, but do you see much chance T City wins other than by sub?
Well I can’t see him winning a decision, that’s for sure lol
 
Anyone like Cerrone at +155? I don’t know much about Leon Edwards
 
Anyone like Cerrone at +155? I don’t know much about Leon Edwards

Yes. Edwards wants to use his grappling and work from top position. He did a nice job vs a very good grappler in Sobotta. But Cowboy's MMA guard is a different animal imo.

The guys who have given Cowboy problems are guys who can pressure him standing early in the fight and hit him with power shots. I don't think that's really Edwards strength.

I'm not saying I heavily favor Cowboy but I do def like him at + odds here.
 
I know this isn't until July 14th, but should Sage Northcutt be a -145 favorite to Zak Ottow's +115 at welterweight? Sage hasn't actually won a bout at welterweight in the UFC.
 
Yes. Edwards wants to use his grappling and work from top position. He did a nice job vs a very good grappler in Sobotta. But Cowboy's MMA guard is a different animal imo.

The guys who have given Cowboy problems are guys who can pressure him standing early in the fight and hit him with power shots. I don't think that's really Edwards strength.

I'm not saying I heavily favor Cowboy but I do def like him at + odds here.

Exact same read, just finished tape. Five rounds favors cowboy, he takes a bit at times to settle into his rhythm, which is why the early power shots have bothered him, but once he does I think he is too much for edwards standing. Cowboy also has a lot of tools against wrestlers, hence why we rarely (ever?) see him grinded for long periods.
 
Well I will buck the trend and say that I don't think Edwards will have too many problems with Cerrone. He can beat him standing and can grind him down on the ground. Just my opinion but I rate Edwards. I'll be very very surprised if he loses to Cerrone
 
Well I will buck the trend and say that I don't think Edwards will have too many problems with Cerrone. He can beat him standing and can grind him down on the ground. Just my opinion but I rate Edwards. I'll be very very surprised if he loses to Cerrone

Others i've discussed with like Edwards here too. Wondering what makes you think he can win standing or do you beleive he can spark Cerrone here? He is just so low volume I find it difficult he wins a decision unless he successfully mixes in his wrestling and negates Cerrone's guard for long periods of top control time.
 
Yes. Edwards wants to use his grappling and work from top position. He did a nice job vs a very good grappler in Sobotta. But Cowboy's MMA guard is a different animal imo.

The guys who have given Cowboy problems are guys who can pressure him standing early in the fight and hit him with power shots. I don't think that's really Edwards strength.

I'm not saying I heavily favor Cowboy but I do def like him at + odds here.

Thanks i took some of that +155 it seems to have value. I was wrong on cerrone vs till but now that we know what till is that made complete sense.
 
Leon opened at +115 and I hit that for 1.5u thinking he would get bet up and now I have a great freeroll opprotunity with Cowboy at decent dog odds.

Gonna study Leons wrestling offense and Cowboys guard this week to see if I can spot something Cowboy can take advantage of.
 
Leon opened at +115 and I hit that for 1.5u thinking he would get bet up and now I have a great freeroll opprotunity with Cowboy at decent dog odds.

Gonna study Leons wrestling offense and Cowboys guard this week to see if I can spot something Cowboy can take advantage of.

Cowboy's guard is SO underrated when it comes to MMA effectiveness imo. Edwards is gonna find out that as good a grappler as Sobotta is, when it comes to MMA he's not on Cerrone's level.

IIRC maybe Jury (a good grappler) put Cowboy on his back once but was easily swept? May have been a different fight. Anyway I remember researching Cerrone for another fight and even went as far back as his WEC fights. His MMA grappling game shocked me in how effective it was overall. We haven't seen a ton of it lately as he's been in all standup fights but on the mat he really is elite.
 
Cowboy's guard is SO underrated when it comes to MMA effectiveness imo. Edwards is gonna find out that as good a grappler as Sobotta is, when it comes to MMA he's not on Cerrone's level.

IIRC maybe Jury (a good grappler) put Cowboy on his back once but was easily swept? May have been a different fight. Anyway I remember researching Cerrone for another fight and even went as far back as his WEC fights. His MMA grappling game shocked me in how effective it was overall. We haven't seen a ton of it lately as he's been in all standup fights but on the mat he really is elite.
I would agree based on what I remember. I think Jury hit him with a TD after a checked leg Kick by Cowboy. Cowboy is good at trapping limbs and good at capitalizing on space created during a scramble or when an opponent postures up to strike. Very big problem for a wrestler even at the high level. Ask Kevin Lee what thats like lol
 
DC is must play at those odds. If Jon Jones didn’t exist DC would be considered one of the greatest fighters ever.

He is smart, can wrestle for days and got some pop in his hands. Stipe always gets hit, and when was the last time he fought someone who wanted to wrestle him?

Wow I got DC at 2.5 and thats terrible now lol. 3.25 where I can get it, Stiepe 1.36 and DC 3.25? DC is unbeaten, much stonger at heavyw
eight and way better at heavyweight than LHW, people are definitely underestimating him, due to Miochics size. That´s crazy. Now hoping the odds will keep going up, but I forgot one thing thats important for bettors to remember is that not all people think logically. So the 2.5 might have been the right odds or the final odds, or worse, but first we´ll get the illogical fans betting.

I´m gonna watch the line for a bit, already got 4U on him, don´t want too much more, but those odds are sweet. Probably cormier by decision would be a great way.

Hoping to get a potential two way with cormier dec or tko though. Had Whittaker 1.72 for that compared to the 1.40 moneyline.

Wonder who put all those money on miochic, as noone here has said much about him it seems that he´s bet worthy.

probably not gonna bet much on this one but might play DC small at those odds to freeroll. just see it being unlikely his price gets much better from here. stipe has never really fought wrestlers and certainly not one of dc's level so that makes the dynamic here interesting. no huge lean overall though.. i think stipe wins but think im just gonna sit back and enjoy this one.

DC 3.45 at some US books now if you can get it.
 
Man I just cant get past that DC line. +250 on 5dimes. I'm capping myself at 750 in Vegas and I'm tempted to put half of that on that line.
 
I know this isn't until July 14th, but should Sage Northcutt be a -145 favorite to Zak Ottow's +115 at welterweight? Sage hasn't actually won a bout at welterweight in the UFC.

Yeah I agree. Line is flipped from where it should be imo. I slightly favor Ottow. His grappling is underrated and Sage has tried to wrestle a lot lately. Ottow should be the bigger guy too. Sage probably will have a slight edge standing just due better speed but he also leaves himself open to being hit pretty often.
 
And what do you guys think about Blagoy/Junior - 2.30/1.62
Blagoy has some nice boxing and i am not sure if we can trust Dos Santos`s chin anymore. Junior is for sure on another level compared to Blagoy`s previous opponents but his only loss is from Volkov and i am not sure if he has ever been in danger in his fights (correct me if i am wrong) and he has a solid chin. I think we can get even better price for Balgoy anyway, so maybe better to wait.
 
I know this isn't until July 14th, but should Sage Northcutt be a -145 favorite to Zak Ottow's +115 at welterweight? Sage hasn't actually won a bout at welterweight in the UFC.

Good call, 1U @ 2.20 is a deal!
 
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