UFC 226

[Monster Meat]

Let’s go 5 dimes cancel the fucking max bets so I can degen out on other fights

 

[electricute]

Pettis got a mean liver kick, and tall fighters like Chiesa seem to be more susceptible to bodyshots, a really good triangle and guillotine. I see Pettis finishing more often than winning a decision

i mean, are you really betting on pettis to score a devasting liver kick? I haven't looked, i have it my notes, but which stances each fighter use? if southpaw vs southpaw, maybe the power kick is on the outside and can't land the liver kick anyways.

in terms of triangle, i mentioned before that chiesa doesn't give space when he is on top to allow for a triangle. Mind you pettis's triangle is very fast, but chiesa looks for control rather than GnP. in terms of guillotine, chiesa doesn't look for single or double leg takedowns, his neck isn't going to be exposed in the takedowns. almost all of chiesa's takedowns are initiated in the clinch from trips and throws. he will have the size and power advantage and likes to muscle guys in the clinch.

there isn't a ton of value on this fight, but i'll prob take chiesa for the action.

I cap the fight:
Michael Chiesa -150 or better
Pettis +150 or better
fight goes to decision +122 or better
Chiesa Sub +233 or better
Chiesa DEC +300 or better

 

[Monster Meat]

Anyone like Lewis by decision at +1050? I can see a scenario where Lewis just wrestles Ngannou and wins a decision. Obviously Ngannou can end it at any point but at those odds why not

 

[Gugabe]

Anyone like Lewis by decision at +1050? I can see a scenario where Lewis just wrestles Ngannou and wins a decision. Obviously Ngannou can end it at any point but at those odds why not

Wrestles? Lewis doesn't really have a great TD game, but I could see a situation where it's an awkward stare-off for 3 rounds.

 

[electricute]

Anyone like Lewis by decision at +1050? I can see a scenario where Lewis just wrestles Ngannou and wins a decision. Obviously Ngannou can end it at any point but at those odds why not

when has lewis ever wrestled anything? while stipe may have exposed ngannou, lewis isn't the fighter to replicate the game plan. Also you will see at weigh ins, but Ngannou has seriously leaned out and looks ripped and fast. whereas on the embedded, derrick lewis is cutting weight and getting massages to deal with his ongoing back pain. I think lewis has a puncher's chance and that's pretty much it. Ngannou also went 5 rounds with stipe, and took some shots in that fight, so it's not like ngannou has a suspect chin either.

ngannou is my biggest bet of the card now

 

[Karmello]

honestly, i think that's a horrible bet. chiesa's striking is pretty poor and doesn't even have KO power, for chiesa to win it will have to be by sub, and likely only by RNC. I think chiesa will get pettis's back and either spin out or know to defend the choke and spend the round on his back.

for pettis, chiesa has a really good chin, going to be hard for pettis to win by KO other than a flashy headkick of sorts. he also doesn't have 1 punch KO power to put chiesa to sleep. Pettis by sub is also unlikely. while pettishas an active gaurd and attempts a lot of triangles from the bottom. chiesa doesn't really posture up when he GnPs, chiesa is more concerned with controlling position and transitioning to mount. he wont give pettis the space to throw his hips.

likely outcomes is chiesa decision, chiesa sub, pettis decision.

Only agreeing on that Chiesa doesn't have KO power but I'm not banking on that at all.
For me the most likeliest outcomes are Chiesa SUB > Pettis SUB > Chiesa DEC > Pettis KO > Pettis DEC > Chiesa KO
I think there are going to be a lot of scrambles and submission attempts in this fight and both Chiesa and Pettis can finish that way. And I think Pettis can definitely hurt Chiesa with a kick to the body as well or like you said he could land that flashy headkick. Overall I see this fight ending inside the distance about 70% of the time, so I gladly take the +108 odds here!

Also if you look at their combined last 10 fights they only went the distance 3 times. I know those stats don't mean much for how this fight is going to go but still.

 

[Ukram]

 

[Monster Meat]

when has lewis ever wrestled anything? while stipe may have exposed ngannou, lewis isn't the fighter to replicate the game plan. Also you will see at weigh ins, but Ngannou has seriously leaned out and looks ripped and fast. whereas on the embedded, derrick lewis is cutting weight and getting massages to deal with his ongoing back pain. I think lewis has a puncher's chance and that's pretty much it. Ngannou also went 5 rounds with stipe, and took some shots in that fight, so it's not like ngannou has a suspect chin either.

ngannou is my biggest bet of the card now

Theres a reason why it’s +1050 I’m
Just saying with the weight difference if he can get him down he will probably keep him there

 

[mkess101]

Only agreeing on that Chiesa doesn't have KO power but I'm not banking on that at all.
For me the most likeliest outcomes are Chiesa SUB > Pettis SUB > Chiesa DEC > Pettis KO > Pettis DEC > Chiesa KO
I think there are going to be a lot of scrambles and submission attempts in this fight and both Chiesa and Pettis can finish that way. And I think Pettis can definitely hurt Chiesa with a kick to the body as well or like you said he could land that flashy headkick. Overall I see this fight ending inside the distance about 70% of the time, so I gladly take the +108 odds here!

Also if you look at their combined last 10 fights they only went the distance 3 times. I know those stats don't mean much for how this fight is going to go but still.

I think 70% is way high but I still agree with the overall sentiment and that DNGD has value.

Pettis TDD isn't great. Chiesa knows he has to close distance and get his hands on Pettis to have a shot here. So odds are they do end up on the mat. And Chiesa just isn't a guy who's satisfied sitting on guard trying to land gnp. He's looking to advance and get in a position to end the fight via sub. Pettis is happy to play that game too, just look at the scramblefest he had with Oliveira.

So where for example Eddie was happy to wall n stall Pettis to a dec win, that's not Chiesa. I think this ends itd over half the time anyway so + odds def worth a stab.

 

[DevilsPt2]

when has lewis ever wrestled anything? while stipe may have exposed ngannou, lewis isn't the fighter to replicate the game plan. Also you will see at weigh ins, but Ngannou has seriously leaned out and looks ripped and fast. whereas on the embedded, derrick lewis is cutting weight and getting massages to deal with his ongoing back pain. I think lewis has a puncher's chance and that's pretty much it. Ngannou also went 5 rounds with stipe, and took some shots in that fight, so it's not like ngannou has a suspect chin either.

ngannou is my biggest bet of the card now

A punchers chance at HW is a lot different than a punchers chance at FLW. A punchers chance is a lot different n a fight that will be standing than on the ground. A punchers chance is a lot different when you're talking about Derrick Lewis. Lewis has gotten a takedown in 5 of his UC fights and each time he has gotten a single takewdown he knocks hs opponent out. It's not like Lewis has a 5% chance, hes at least 30% but I think hes higher. There are other fights where the dog doesnt have at least 30% chance so I really dont understand why you would make Ngannou your biggest bet of the card. Who did you bet in Ngannous fight with Stipe?

EDIT: Stipes power is mediocre moving forward by the way.

 

[mkess101]

Theres a reason why it’s +1050 I’m
Just saying with the weight difference if he can get him down he will probably keep him there

Man the issue is if Lewis puts guys on their backs he usually smashes them badly. Better chance for dec is that both guys are too wary of each other's power and never commit to much throughout the fight.

But yeah, +1050 so...why not I guess.

 

[MT6ix]

Theres a reason why it’s +1050 I’m
Just saying with the weight difference if he can get him down he will probably keep him there

It's worth a bet at something like 0.2 units not a full unit and it's a 3 round fight too.

Not the most likely outcome but worth a shot.

 

[Karmello]

I think 70% is way high but I still agree with the overall sentiment and that DNGD has value.

Pettis TDD isn't great. Chiesa knows he has to close distance and get his hands on Pettis to have a shot here. So odds are they do end up on the mat. And Chiesa just isn't a guy who's satisfied sitting on guard trying to land gnp. He's looking to advance and get in a position to end the fight via sub. Pettis is happy to play that game too, just look at the scramblefest he had with Oliveira.

So where for example Eddie was happy to wall n stall Pettis to a dec win, that's not Chiesa. I think this ends itd over half the time anyway so + odds def worth a stab.

I think 70% is about right, maybe 65-70. This fight will for sure go to the mat and there will be a lot of possible fight ending situations there.

Just curious but what % would you give it ending ITD?

 

[plekz]

The Max concussion thing really isn't promising for him going forward, iv'e been saying it for a long ass while though that his prefered style of fighting would catch up to him sooner rather than later. Especially considering how active he's been since entering the sport.

The long term damage the sport causes it's athletes has alot to do with why my love & intrest for the sport has lessened severly as i get older. And given the young age of the sport, i'm pretty sure we are only scratching the surface still in terms of what type of long term effects this is gonna cause people. Give it another 5-10 years and it likely will be a very grim picture being painted.

Especially given the very aggressive nature of weightcutting that is pretty much praxis for the sport. It's because of this that the growth potential for higher weight classes is going to continue being very sub par. Because very few young people are conciously gonna choose to go the route of MMA when they could choose way more lucrative sports that offers a way lower risk of injury.

 

[Monster Meat]

Man the issue is if Lewis puts guys on their backs he usually smashes them badly. Better chance for dec is that both guys are too wary of each other's power and never commit to much throughout the fight.

But yeah, +1050 so...why not I guess.

Yea I brought about that also and it could be a 3 round boring fight as well. Ngannou will probably win but -400 is way too high to bet it. The +1050 can be thrown in a small risk high reward parlay.

 

[mkess101]

I think 70% is about right, maybe 65-70. This fight will for sure go to the mat and there will be a lot of possible fight ending situations there.

Just curious but what % would you give it ending ITD?

55-60%.

Not way off from yours. 70 is pretty optimistic though. I'm on the prop too but if I thought it was 70% I'd have more on it than I do.

 

[mkess101]

The Max concussion thing really isn't promising for him going forward, iv'e been saying it for a long ass while though that his prefered style of fighting would catch up to him sooner rather than later. Especially considering how active he's been since entering the sport.

The long term damage the sport causes it's athletes has alot to do with why my love & intrest for the sport has lessened severly as i get older. And given the young age of the sport, i'm pretty sure we are only scratching the surface still in terms of what type of long term effects this is gonna cause people. Give it another 5-10 years and it likely will be a very grim picture being painted.

Especially given the very aggressive nature of weightcutting that is pretty much praxis for the sport. It's because of this that the growth potential for higher weight classes is going to continue being very sub par. Because very few young people are conciously gonna choose to go the route of MMA when they could choose way more lucrative sports that offers a way lower risk of injury.

Sadly, I agree with a lot of this.

 

[Karmello]

55-60%.

Not way off from yours. 70 is pretty optimistic though. I'm on the prop too but if I thought it was 70% I'd have more on it than I do.

I got 4u on it @+108 and at good odds I'll bet the ANY by SUB as well.

 

[Sadistics]

The liver kick won't be there for Pettis. Chiesa is SP and Pettis always goes orthodox vs SPs even though SP is his preferred stance

 

[DevilsPt2]

This interview is a definite confidence increase.

"The only way to beat me is to knock me out. If t goes 25 he doesnt get his hand raised. Those odds and all that money they bet on him is tied to one outcome"

What DC didnt mention is that 1 outcome is mostly in the first 2 rounds but I think he know that.