UFC 226

I think that Perry KO holds value. Felder is hittable.
I honestly like the Dec prop @ +600. Perry's gonna come forward, and I don't totally trust Felder's outfighting game.
 
I actually think this is a fairly difficult card to bet.

I was going to be heavy on Max.

I see value in Cormier.

I actually see value in Emily Whitmire, which is terrifying. Moyle should be fighting at 105 and whitmire is coming down from 125.

If I knew Lando corrected his cardio issues I'd really like him in this spot.

What's everyone's "lock" of the night???
 
I actually think this is a fairly difficult card to bet.

I was going to be heavy on Max.

I see value in Cormier.

I actually see value in Emily Whitmire, which is terrifying. Moyle should be fighting at 105 and whitmire is coming down from 125.

If I knew Lando corrected his cardio issues I'd really like him in this spot.

What's everyone's "lock" of the night???
No locks at all but Im pretty confident in Assauncao, he should school Font.
 
No locks at all but Im pretty confident in Assauncao, he should school Font.

I think Font has the perfect counter for Assuncao's leg kicks with his overhand. If he commits to throwing it I think he'll bloody up Assuncao.

I can see Assuncao winning a dec but i think Font can either finish or win a Dec. Font NSC -148 is my best play on this one. He's just way more likely to finish imo.
 
Holy shit. I can hardly believe 226 goes down tonight. Win or lose it's a fucking awesome card. Let's cash these bets mofos.
 
Kinda agree with you guys about Raphs leg kicks BUT, I kinda thought Kattar would have a similar answer for Moicano but that was really the deciding factor in their fight and Font/Kattar are teammates. Granted, their boxing styles are a bit different but their fundamentals are pretty much the same. I doubt raph is gonna throw naked kicks enough to be countered with a kill shot instead hes gonna be looking to hit his legs when Font slips punches. Boxers like them move their head and and upper body away first, leaving their legs open to be kicked. I remember Joanna started making that read in the mid/latter stages of her second fight with Rose.

Obviously their coaches and team can learn from previous losses and build upon that moving forward and for the record I'm on Font too but holy shit does those kicks scare me away from putting more than 1u here.
 
Another night of mainly dogs for me

I like DC, Perry, Whittmire, and Burns. Bet them all rather equally. Will probably add to Perry if Whitt and Burns hit.
 
Kinda agree with you guys about Raphs leg kicks BUT, I kinda thought Kattar would have a similar answer for Moicano but that was really the deciding factor in their fight and Font/Kattar are teammates. Granted, their boxing styles are a bit different but their fundamentals are pretty much the same. I doubt raph is gonna throw naked kicks enough to be countered with a kill shot instead hes gonna be looking to hit his legs when Font slips punches. Boxers like them move their head and and upper body away first, leaving their legs open to be kicked. I remember Joanna started making that read in the mid/latter stages of her second fight with Rose.

Obviously their coaches and team can learn from previous losses and build upon that moving forward and for the record I'm on Font too but holy shit does those kicks scare me away from putting more than 1u here.

I get the concern and I touched on the exact same thing in one of my earlier posts (referenced Kattar/Moicano as well). I was big on Moicano in that fight at dogs odds. One of the primary reasons for that was looking at Kattar's previous fights, he had his leg chewed up in several on them, even by regional competition. Add to that the fact that we saw Moicano kicking Stephens lead leg in an ortho vs ortho matchup to the point where Stephens was switching stances late in the fight.

There are a few differences between that fight and this one IMO. For one, although Font is vulnerable to leg kicks, we haven't seen a situation where he's been compromised because of it. Whether or not that's because he hasn't faced a leg kicker of Assuncao's caliber is the question (Munhoz has excellent leg kicks too but we know how that went). Also, Moicano didn't have to deal with the big reach disadvantage that Assuncao is going to have to work around. I think that's going to be compounded by how long Font is capable of fighting with that jab. Lastly, I think Assuncao is more effective with inside legs vs a southpaw. Maybe we are overrating how much of a factor they'll actually be here based on the Lopez fight.
 
I'm really liking Miocic - Cormier over 1.5 rounds @1.42 / -238. Although Miocic has a lot of 1st round finishes, this is going to be a completely different fight. Daniel isn't coming in there to trade with him, but he's going to make it a grinding fight and I would be really surprised if this one doesn't go passed 1.5 rounds.

I thought the odds would be much lower on this one, so I went pretty big here. It's still available at Unibet if someone's interested.
 
1. There are a few differences between that fight and this one IMO. For one, although Font is vulnerable to leg kicks, we haven't seen a situation where he's been compromised because of it. Whether or not that's because he hasn't faced a leg kicker of Assuncao's caliber is the question (Munhoz has excellent leg kicks too but we know how that went).

2. Also, Moicano didn't have to deal with the big reach disadvantage that Assuncao is going to have to work around. I think that's going to be compounded by how long Font is capable of fighting with that jab.

3. Lastly, I think Assuncao is more effective with inside legs vs a southpaw. Maybe we are overrating how much of a factor they'll actually be here based on the Lopez fight.
1. True, that's the question. Munhoz fight didn't go on long enough to see that. He only landed 8 of 12 leg kicks there. While that hurts like a son of a bitch, it probably isn't enough hurt power or mobility that much quite yet. Can't remember if he was getting kicked to the thigh or calf either.

2 & 3. These are probably the best counter points I've heard about it. Gonna go back and watch that Lopez fight again to see what you're saying for myself.
 
Kinda agree with you guys about Raphs leg kicks BUT, I kinda thought Kattar would have a similar answer for Moicano but that was really the deciding factor in their fight and Font/Kattar are teammates. Granted, their boxing styles are a bit different but their fundamentals are pretty much the same. I doubt raph is gonna throw naked kicks enough to be countered with a kill shot instead hes gonna be looking to hit his legs when Font slips punches. Boxers like them move their head and and upper body away first, leaving their legs open to be kicked. I remember Joanna started making that read in the mid/latter stages of her second fight with Rose.

Obviously their coaches and team can learn from previous losses and build upon that moving forward and for the record I'm on Font too but holy shit does those kicks scare me away from putting more than 1u here.

This fight is kind of hard to read. I agree the leg kicks are the biggest problem Font will have to deal with, he needs to check them or he ends up like Kattar in round 3 of the Moicano fight (stationary). I do think Assuncao will try to throw naked leg kicks though because he is really a counter puncher.

Font is going to be coming forward with a lot of pressure though. He has a super long reach and uses a good jab but I think he is going to give Assuncao a lot of problems on the feet because he uses the peekaboo style of boxing a long with his reach. You don't see it a lot in mma, so it might give Assuncao problems timing it with counter punching with all the angles Font creates with this style and not as easy to see punches coming. It still comes down to leg kicks. With this style, he is heavy on the leg lead and his knees are slightly bent with the peekaboo style which makes it harder to check kick and bring your leg up whereas in muay thai your lead leg is more upright and easier to lift up to check kicks. That's why Munhoz's is able to land a lot of leg kicks.

If the fight hits the scorecards and Font doesn't get his lead leg destroyed or a massive brainfart by Font, he should win a decision.
 
Over 1.5 subs is -117, I think Burns, Chiesa, Roundtree, and Lewis’s best path to victory is the sub.
 
1. True, that's the question. Munhoz fight didn't go on long enough to see that. He only landed 8 of 12 leg kicks there. While that hurts like a son of a bitch, it probably isn't enough hurt power or mobility that much quite yet. Can't remember if he was getting kicked to the thigh or calf either.

2 & 3. These are probably the best counter points I've heard about it. Gonna go back and watch that Lopez fight again to see what you're saying for myself.

I practiced muay thai for quite a few years and when you don't check leg kicks the first few you get hit with don't feel that bad because of the adrenaline but after a few you definitely feel that your mobility isn't the same, it creeps up on you. It doesn't take a whole lot of unchecked leg kicks to start to have an impact.
 
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What type of sub do you see Derrick Lewis slapping on?
Francis has a better submission game imo. He has armbars and standing Kimuras on his resume - surely hes versed with guillotines and rncs too.
 
I hedged some of my Felder action 50:50 ml/nsc. Took Miocic itd and R1 and R2 to support the good dec odds I got earlier. Saki’s odds seem good to me close to evens. Griffin is my favorite dog and Assuncano my favorite favorite. Got rid of Klose bet.
 
Rewatched that Lopez/Raph fight. Raph did a great job setting up the inside kick. Almost always tried to draw a parry or block from Lopez before he committed fully to the kick and hit it with 100% power. Jesus christ that bruise. Inside kick to a southpaw turns into an outside kick to a ortho right? True I don't think the kicks he landed here are on par with the ones he was attempting against Aljo for example. Thing I like most about Font is he's not really a stationary target. Lopez and some of the other strikers Raph hits with kicks are a bit more flat footed than Font. Although, I've said it before and I'll say it again...I'm not striking coach lol. Apparently @t6p and @MT6ix have gotten a better read here than I have. Not too interested in going back to well of the decision machine that is Raph to get a better read. Still pretty happy with 1u on Font at +150.
 
For those that can't get enough of Gabriel Morency & Gamblou breaking down the UFC cards and more:

 

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