UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

Curious to where you guys cap Volk/Elkins as it seems the majority are on Elkins. I am assuming it is mostly due to price? I just finished capping after smashing Volk's opening prices and I cap Volk around -200 or so. Everyone who has wanted to back Elkins to the fence with power punches and take him down has been able to do so and that is essentially Volk's entire game. Elkin's can grind, but his top control really isn't anything special and Volk has shown great get-ups and scrambling. I have 3.8u Volk -121 and was going to arb down after reading the thread/discussing in chats, but feel pretty good about the stake. As of now I am just planning to hit Elkins dec for a small hedge, assuming it is +5xx.
Im on Volkov too. And betting him
 
I understand hitting Volkanovski all the way up to -200 but not at this current price. Volkanovski has never met anyone close to Elkins, we have never seen him face any adversity, so to trust him as a -350 favorite against one of the more consistent underdogs who almost always finds a way to win doesn't seem like a good bet
 
Curious to where you guys cap Volk/Elkins as it seems the majority are on Elkins. I am assuming it is mostly due to price? I just finished capping after smashing Volk's opening prices and I cap Volk around -200 or so. Everyone who has wanted to back Elkins to the fence with power punches and take him down has been able to do so and that is essentially Volk's entire game. Elkin's can grind, but his top control really isn't anything special and Volk has shown great get-ups and scrambling. I have 3.8u Volk -121 and was going to arb down after reading the thread/discussing in chats, but feel pretty good about the stake. As of now I am just planning to hit Elkins dec for a small hedge, assuming it is +5xx.
For me it comes down to who can capitalize and impose their will in the clinch better. Volk is a very strong and explosive dude but none of the people hes fought so far have the depth to stall him out from getting a bodylock on in the clinch or even demonstrated good get up ability. Volk didn't seem very adept at controlling hips or stripping posts and I think his most recent opponents could have gotten up pretty easily after they hit the canvas with some basic base building and posting with their arm like Shane Young was able to do. Shane probably could have won that fight if he offered more volume on the feet which is kind of his problem in every fight so far. I don't think either guy will be able to hold the other on the ground for very long.

I fucking love Elkins in the clinch. Absolute textbook bodylock, varying grips and position advancing plus reversals. Volks chain wrestling isn't super impressive but I like his ability to recognize he doesn't have what he wants and will break away to cause damage.

On the feet theyll be pretty competitive. I'll give a slight edge to Elkins for a bit of speed and technique plus reach but it does concern me that Volk does have some power and Elkins can take damage but doesn't wear it well which can suede a judges decision about who's doing more.

All and all because of a strength advantage and ability to pressure/seemingly not gas out when being able to impose his will I cap the fight in volks favor about -120. I think it should be very competitive. Just how I see the fight. I've been wrong before lol.

Also, note that Volk can leave his neck sitting out there for too long at times when he's trying to lock his hands together and Elkins is a TAM guy...so...there's that.
 
Good to know Randy worked on his wrestling and ground game, in stand up he should have advantage.
 
Red flags for wineland

Neck surgery layoff.

I had a good feeling he had some kind of injury but couldn’t find info

Said he’s been nervous about getting hit but has had some rough sparring sessions and feels comfortable

Training closer to home as well to be closer to family
 
For me it comes down to who can capitalize and impose their will in the clinch better. Volk is a very strong and explosive dude but none of the people hes fought so far have the depth to stall him out from getting a bodylock on in the clinch or even demonstrated good get up ability. Volk didn't seem very adept at controlling hips or stripping posts and I think his most recent opponents could have gotten up pretty easily after they hit the canvas with some basic base building and posting with their arm like Shane Young was able to do. Shane probably could have won that fight if he offered more volume on the feet which is kind of his problem in every fight so far. I don't think either guy will be able to hold the other on the ground for very long.

I fucking love Elkins in the clinch. Absolute textbook bodylock, varying grips and position advancing plus reversals. Volks chain wrestling isn't super impressive but I like his ability to recognize he doesn't have what he wants and will break away to cause damage.

On the feet theyll be pretty competitive. I'll give a slight edge to Elkins for a bit of speed and technique plus reach but it does concern me that Volk does have some power and Elkins can take damage but doesn't wear it well which can suede a judges decision about who's doing more.

All and all because of a strength advantage and ability to pressure/seemingly not gas out when being able to impose his will I cap the fight in volks favor about -120. I think it should be very competitive. Just how I see the fight. I've been wrong before lol.

Also, note that Volk can leave his neck sitting out there for too long at times when he's trying to lock his hands together and Elkins is a TAM guy...so...there's that.

Appreciate the breakdown and technical analysis. Should be noted that Volk, despite giving up 4 inches in height, actually has a one in reach advantage. Also, Elkins gets hit cleanly every fight, wouldn't be surprised in the least if Volk drops him at least once.

I wish Volk had a smaller step up in competetion against a decent wrestler so we would have a better gauge on this fight, but I also think that is why it opened the way it did. Volk has absolutely dominated every round he has had in the UFC thus far bar when he slowed vs Hirota (apparently was sick and on antibiotics, which I beleive since he has shown no signs of slowing at all in other fights). Elkins has been on a very nice run, but heart and grit will only take him so far, Volk won't gas out like Bektic did, doesn't have a nonexsistent ground game like Johnson, nor questionable fight IQ like Berm/Castro. Seems an uphill matchup and a way to keep Elkins away from title contention to me lol.
 
Red flags for wineland

Neck surgery layoff.

I had a good feeling he had some kind of injury but couldn’t find info

Said he’s been nervous about getting hit but has had some rough sparring sessions and feels comfortable

Training closer to home as well to be closer to family

Neck surgery seems like a positive, no? He said the neck injury was the reason he was afraid of being hit, thus with the surgery correcting it, he now no longer is.
 
Neck surgery seems like a positive, no? He said the neck injury was the reason he was afraid of being hit, thus with the surgery correcting it, he now no longer is.
Yea I read it wrong. Said he was tentative before the surgery. Now he’s comfortable

Personally I don’t think surgery on your neck or back can really be viewed as a positive, but if he’s not afraid of getting hit anymore then it’s a positive for him.

I still think he’s going to need a ko to get it done. He’s vilnerable to leg kicks and Perez throws a bunch of them

I see him getting outvolumed by perez unless of course he catches him with one of those vicious counters he’s known for.

After watching the tape I’m comfortable with my initial reads. Will be looking for wineland ko and Perez decision props

I think I did take wineland at +175-185. There is value there
 
Next tape up for me is niko vs Brown

I bet niko initially at plus odds but after thinking about it my lean says brown.

I also was hoping kats numbers went up but it looks like she’s the slight favorite now.
 
my breakdowns for this card:

http://piglordmma.com/2018/07/11/ufc-fight-night-133-dos-santos-vs-ivanov-betting-predictions/

if you enjoy my writing, it would help me out a tonne if you could place one of your bets for this card at betonline using my link. i get some commission for referring new customers but they are worth signing up for anyway if you like insane openers like felder +230 and suarez -110.
Where is Betonline based out of?

Offshore?

How's the withdrawal process?
 
1.Should be noted that Volk, despite giving up 4 inches in height, actually has a one in reach advantage.
2.Also, Elkins gets hit cleanly every fight, wouldn't be surprised in the least if Volk drops him at least once.

3.I wish Volk had a smaller step up in competetion against a decent wrestler so we would have a better gauge on this fight.
4.Volk has absolutely dominated every round he has had in the UFC thus far bar when he slowed vs Hirota (apparently was sick and on antibiotics, which I believe since he has shown no signs of slowing at all in other fights).
5.Elkins has been on a very nice run, but heart and grit will only take him so far, Volk won't gas out like Bektic did, doesn't have a nonexsistent ground game like Johnson, nor questionable fight IQ like Berm/Castro.
6.Seems an uphill matchup and a way to keep Elkins away from title contention to me lol.
1. He's always at that disadvantage.
2. Yeah, possibly lol.
3. That's the big issue. He hasn't faced good ol' 'murican rasslin' yet. I can't tell you how loud I was yelling at the TV when I watched Volks fight with Kennedy live. M'fer was locking down Volks right leg trying to keep half guard. "LET GO OF HIS FUCKING LEG! GET UP YOU IDIOT"
4. While that's true it could be said that he's been given a few possibly maybe kinda favorable matchups since the events he fought in for the UFC were in Australia and he's the Australian dude. Hard to say though since I didn't go down the rabbit hole and watch all of Kennedys, Hirotas or Kasuya's fights (had taped Youngs for his recent fight DY so thats still a bit fresh). Also, I before E, bro. jk.
5. How dare you. MJ's ground game exists, it just sucks.
6. They keep trying and Elkins keep shutting these fools down. As a closing underdog, Elkins has cashed like 70% of the time. Good enough for me at +240 and +295
 
Where is Betonline based out of?

Offshore?

How's the withdrawal process?

they are based in panama. from talking to other dudes their withdrawal process sounds quick.
 
Next tape up for me is niko vs Brown

I bet niko initially at plus odds but after thinking about it my lean says brown.

I also was hoping kats numbers went up but it looks like she’s the slight favorite now.

I am still reviewing tape on this fig but as well. I am considering a bet on Brown, but I am interested to get your thoughts after tape.
 
I'm pretty much set on who I'm playing for this card. To me, there are a lot of clear sides. Struggling a bit on Garcia/De La Rosa, Holobaugh/Barcelos (leaning Barcelos at +), and Price/Brown.

Who are you playing?
 
Summer vacation time here in the states so Reneau will be dedicating more time to her camp rather than teaching so...a bit of a confidence decrease there BUT gifs have a funny way of bringing that confidence back so I'm back to "meh" level on my bet on cat lol.



Brutal knees man and she got 1 or 2 pretty high up there.
 
Hit Perez at -170. Intially thought ths was a close fight but I really see Perez winning a clear 29-28 or better and he just has the mentality of a winner. Wineland lacks confidence and we all know half the game is 90% mental.

Who are you playing?

Also would like to know this info
 
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1. He's always at that disadvantage.
2. Yeah, possibly lol.
3. That's the big issue. He hasn't faced good ol' 'murican rasslin' yet. I can't tell you how loud I was yelling at the TV when I watched Volks fight with Kennedy live. M'fer was locking down Volks right leg trying to keep half guard. "LET GO OF HIS FUCKING LEG! GET UP YOU IDIOT"
4. While that's true it could be said that he's been given a few possibly maybe kinda favorable matchups since the events he fought in for the UFC were in Australia and he's the Australian dude. Hard to say though since I didn't go down the rabbit hole and watch all of Kennedys, Hirotas or Kasuya's fights (had taped Youngs for his recent fight DY so thats still a bit fresh). Also, I before E, bro. jk.
5. How dare you. MJ's ground game exists, it just sucks.
6. They keep trying and Elkins keep shutting these fools down. As a closing underdog, Elkins has cashed like 70% of the time. Good enough for me at +240 and +295

1. I was correcting you when you stated elkins had a reach advantage and
4. don't ever correct my many spelling errors again ;)

Wouldn't touch Volk at current odds, Elkins +300 has to be the right side given his durability and proven clinch game. That said, I won't be surprised if Volk mobs him.
 
1. I was correcting you when you stated elkins had a reach advantage and
4. don't ever correct my many spelling errors again ;)

Wouldn't touch Volk at current odds, Elkins +300 has to be the right side given his durability and proven clinch game. That said, I won't be surprised if Volk mobs him.
Shit lol you're right my bad with the reach.
 
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