UFN 133 Dos Santos vs Ivanov July 14

Wonder why his line has dropped so much.

People regained their sanity? As soon as it was announced I thought "Mendes -200 makes sense." People bet him up to -315 or whatever and I was about to play Jury when the line started shifting the other way. So I got greedy and was waiting for Mendes to climb back near -300 to play Jury. But...odds dictate plays. Jury has been overbet now imo. At current odds Mendes is the play.
 
I pulled the trigger a bit early on Mendes at -165 and added at -145. Have 2u -161 and can't go above that given the layoff. Unless his chin is shot (which the layoff would actually help in theory) this is a tough matchup for Jury, who usually relies on his wrestling.
 
Ok at -145 I take a shot at 3 year layoff Mini Mendes. He has a clear path to victory and psychically he's looking in great shape. Can't go to big though, who knows if the ringrust plays a factor or if he'll gas but at -145 I take a shot.
 
Jury fights too timid for me to want to bet him. At the same time I do see an avenue for him to be successful vs Mendes.

Apart from McGregor Jury is the longest guy that Mendes has fought. Coupled with Jury being a very good grappler & being extremely well rounded I can see him being able to counter Mendes well both with his own attributes (Mendes is obviously the more athletic of the two) and his depth in skill.

That Glenn fight though was so uninspiring that I just can’t play Jury, but this is no cake walk fight for Mendes imo. Very interested to see how this fight plays out, especially if these two start grappling.
 
I pulled the trigger a bit early on Mendes at -165 and added at -145. Have 2u -161 and can't go above that given the layoff. Unless his chin is shot (which the layoff would actually help in theory) this is a tough matchup for Jury, who usually relies on his wrestling.

Jury's striking is technically okay I guess, but he lacks speed and conviction when he throws. You're right in that he wants to force grappling exchanges, but when he faced another legit grappling threat in Cerrone, he got spanked. Yes that was at LW but I think that while Jury is a solid grappler, he's not elite by any stretch.

This fight is so much more a referendum on what Mendes is coming off the layoff and now dealing with USADA than it is about Jury. Mendes that hasn't dropped off a ton should handle Jury. We just don't know for sure if he's close to what he was. But at -155 I'm willing to take that gamble on the clearly more talented guy.
 
I'm curious what people would cap Mendes/Jury at if Mendes did not have a layoff/USADA issue.
 
I'm curious what people would cap Mendes/Jury at if Mendes did not have a layoff/USADA issue.

Mendes -300 seems right. Guy went toe to toe with prime Aldo for 5 rounds, demolished Lamas, Guida, Elkins. Has only lost to the elite of the elite.
 
Mendes -300 seems right. Guy went toe to toe with prime Aldo for 5 rounds, demolished Lamas, Guida, Elkins. Has only lost to the elite of the elite.

Yep exactly what I'd cap it.
 
That's similar to where I'd have it, if not a shade higher. I mentioned this earlier, but I think these unknowns should affect bet sizing more than anything. To me, it's hard to argue with the value on Mendes unless you put a lot of stock into an unknown.
 
Wonder if mendes is having a bad weight cut

First fight not being able to use ivs

I’m wondering if there’s some insider info that caused his line to drop 150 points overnight
 
I'm curious what people would cap Mendes/Jury at if Mendes did not have a layoff/USADA issue.

Good point.

I would probably put him around -200 if there were no lay off.

I am a little concerned about his chin. Edgar flattened him in his last fight, and Edgar doesn't have that kind of power in his strikes.
 
That's similar to where I'd have it, if not a shade higher. I mentioned this earlier, but I think these unknowns should affect bet sizing more than anything. To me, it's hard to argue with the value on Mendes unless you put a lot of stock into an unknown.

Exactly my feelings which is why I stopped at 2u, Mendes -145 would be a max bet for me pre layoff/USADA concerns.
 
Good point.

I would probably put him around -200 if there were no lay off.

I am a little concerned about his chin. Edgar flattened him in his last fight, and Edgar doesn't have that kind of power in his strikes.

True, and the chin is a concern after Aldo/McGregor fights, but Frankie sat down on that hook and landed clean to the jaw. The three year layoff could be a positive in that regard.
 
Also, I'm not sure I've ever seen Jury throw a punch as hard as the one Frankie hit Mendes with. Maybe he has, but I sure can't remember it.

Frankie isn't known as a power puncher but that's more due to the style he's chosen after the 2 wars with Maynard. That was before Gray's chin was shot and Frankie put him away with hard shots. I think Frankie most likely has a lot more power than Jury, but chooses to be elusive and hard to hit over throwing with big power.
 
I would stab a guy in front of his own mama to put a max bet on Mendes at anything less than -300 pre layoff.
 
True, and the chin is a concern after Aldo/McGregor fights, but Frankie sat down on that hook and landed clean to the jaw. The three year layoff could be a positive in that regard.

100 pct.

It's hard for me to be confident either way though.

Some people see the lay off as a huge issue, but for someone as talented as Mendes, I think it's a positive if anything. Hes still only 33.
 
Wonder if mendes is having a bad weight cut

First fight not being able to use ivs

I’m wondering if there’s some insider info that caused his line to drop 150 points overnight

1 week away from the fight his weight was 155

Edit: He is uploading daily vlogs on his youtube chanel, you can watch them if you want to know how he looks and how he is preparing for the fight.
 
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I'm pretty certain Myles Jury is going to win decisively. He's back with Alliance isn't he? Yeah, after this fight people will be high on Jury because of his strong performance. Like, montage level performance where Joe Rogan says something along the lines of "he made easy work of chad mendes who went punch for punch with some of the best fighters of all-time"

Post-USADA fighters are a huge question mark. For example, I would've max bet pre-usada renan barao against just about anyone but now I can't trust him against mid-tier competition. I don't trust chadworth
 
Call me crazy, but .... for some reason, I actually believe that Mendes got popped as a result of his Psoriasis cream.

In the limited recent pictures I've seen of him, hes still a tank.
 
ATM I'm at:

zingano 1/1
said 5/8
JDS 10/17
Jury 7/5

Parlay total is 11/1
 
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