General MMA Discussion & Future Lines - March, 2018

I don't get the confidence in Till. He near kills himself making weight and Woodley can drain him with takedowns if he so chooses. Wood won't stay at range to get blasted, he'll either be in or out. Think he wins a pretty clear decision

Woodley has a bad habit of backing up against the cage and Till does a really good job of moving forward and pressuring his opponents and cutting them off. Till has a really good sense of distance and managing range and a good fight iq. This is where he knocked Wonderboy down in the 5th round.

He will be fully aware of Woodley's right hand. He knew Wonderboy was just looking to counter him hence why the fight was so boring and Till feinting a lot and not fully committing. Also Wonderboy has a lot more weapons than Woodley and Till had no problem handling his striking game. This fight might go the same way.

In terms of Woodley's wrestling, last guy to take down Till consistently was Dalby but Till has improved his takedown defense and has gotten even bigger. If Woodley struggles to land takedowns, it's going to drain him which is huge over 5 rounds. He doesn't go for a lot of takedowns because he is trying to conserve his energy/cardio.

Wonderboy after Till fight said it was nearly impossible to move Till, he felt like a brick wall (he was too big).

I like Till's ML and waiting to see what over/under opens at.
 
Really liking Branch @+180, looked great against Santos and I think Jacare is starting to look old and although he was competitive against Kelvin and could've won that fight, I think that fight showed a lot of signs of him aging.

Also think Weidman will get it done against Rockhold this time and knock him out, just a gut feeling I have and not much to back it up other than that I think Rockholds chin is gone.

Hate putting any more money down on these fights that happen in months though, already have a lot of money on DC-Brock and Woodley-Cody that I'm not getting back till the end of the year. Fuckers at WH suspended the cash in option on the DC-Brock fight and BetOnline doesn't have a cash in option. In hindsight it was stupid of me to bet on DC-Brock without thinking if it could happen in 2018, but because of the odds I acted real fast without thinking to much about it. Some things are just to great to be true I guess.
Agreed on Branch he's always underrated and Jacare hasn't looked great at all recently. I thought he'd handle Kelvin easily but couldn't get the sub and gassed after a round instead.
 
I am tempted to bet Till at +odds, but a few devil’s advocate points for Woodley holding me back

1) Woodley has a great chin. Rarely gets hurt
2) Till chin untested. He has a big weight cut so wouldnt be surprising if its not great
3) Till cardio was good in WB fight, but doesnt mean he won’t gas vs Woodley. He missed weight vs WB and has to cut 4.5 extra pounds. Having to make 170 instead of 171 not great for big boy like Till

So I dunno. Till could have value but Id feel better if this was a 3 round fight
 
hit mark hunt at -105 yesterday on marathonbet, ridiculous line. still very playable.
 
Because promotion actually gets him paid the big money? Because the difference in pay will be huge? Because hes a lifelong martial artist getting screwed over after all the work he has put into it? Because in case you didn't realise Nate isn't actually a genius. He might be 'hard' but since when are tough guys known for a high IQ?

Bud I never claimed he was smart. The dude's a fucking retard but why would the UFC promote the shit out of a 20-11 fighter who doesn't know how to promote himself? How is he getting screwed over? He's getting a huge fight with Poirier for no particular reason after getting Conor (again for no particular reason) when a ton of other fighters probably deserve it more. The winner is going to be fighting for the belt. The only take I can see is that Nate's seemingly salty because Conor overshadowed him unless someone else has some other idea other than just a rumor that he was on the same card as Conor previously and got boned with the money that comes with being replaced on that card.
 
Bud I never claimed he was smart. The dude's a fucking retard but why would the UFC promote the shit out of a 20-11 fighter who doesn't know how to promote himself? How is he getting screwed over? He's getting a huge fight with Poirier for no particular reason after getting Conor (again for no particular reason) when a ton of other fighters probably deserve it more. The winner is going to be fighting for the belt. The only take I can see is that Nate's seemingly salty because Conor overshadowed him unless someone else has some other idea other than just a rumor that he was on the same card as Conor previously and got boned with the money that comes with being replaced on that card.
Because being co-main to Conor would be a much bigger card giving him a much bigger payday as well as being first in line to replace either guy should one of them get injured. They should promote him cause he's clearly a big name now and it showed in the hype when after 2 years they announced his fight with Poirier.
Not to mention you are questioning the logic of a Diaz brother when they have spent years doing utterly inexplainable crazy shit and never giving a fuck once. Thats just how they are.
 
Because being co-main to Conor would be a much bigger card giving him a much bigger payday as well as being first in line to replace either guy should one of them get injured. They should promote him cause he's clearly a big name now and it showed in the hype when after 2 years they announced his fight with Poirier.
Not to mention you are questioning the logic of a Diaz brother when they have spent years doing utterly inexplainable crazy shit and never giving a fuck once. Thats just how they are.

I hear that. It is MSG so I would imagine they are looking at a big, big fight for the main there as well. Are we sure he was offered the card that Conor is on? In that case, ya, I would agree with you. Also, lol at how much they don't give fucks.

Edit: Didn't consider the injury part. Makes sense.
 
I have about 3.5u on Unibet for McGregor to be lightweight champion at the end of the year @ 3.75... Now, I await the inevitable stream of casual money coming in on McGregor.
 
Reality:

Nate (most likely unintentionally, but whatever) probably did more to hype the fight and get people excited for his return with these antics than he could have by "playing by the rules" and "promoting himself". He's found his niche as the bad boy, "IDGAF" guy. There's time between now and the fight, and he's gonna do more stuff like this and the press and fans will eat it up. Either hating it or loving it, but paying attention either way.

He was cheered louder, BY FAR, than any other fighter present at the presser, and that's an indisputable fact. He doesn't have Conor-type cache', but he matters when you look at the landscape of the UFC. And from a monetary standpoint, he matters a lot.
 
Conor just getting smashed already. Maybe I should have taken some at +170 with the plan to freeroll, but now I'll just wait for more to stream in before I drop an atomic bomb on Khabib.
 
Aus Book opened up full props for Conor-Khabib. Investing a bunch of units into Conor KO +210, since I'm expecting that to close around +120, and happily taking the u2.0 line. Might hedge that with Khabib decision. Khabib finish props are a little interesting, but I'm confident they'll shift as Khabib's price does over time.
 
Conor back up to +155. I wonder if he just doesn't get the same love this fight that he did vs. Floyd.

I mean he *did* lose to Floyd, so all of the same people may be hesitant to give away their money again on Conor.

Also he is going against prime Khabib who will probably never be available for -1xx again until he shows signs of decline. So it's possible that clueful people are thirstier for Khabib action than Irish people and casuals are for Conor action.
 
Woodley has a bad habit of backing up against the cage and Till does a really good job of moving forward and pressuring his opponents and cutting them off. Till has a really good sense of distance and managing range and a good fight iq. This is where he knocked Wonderboy down in the 5th round.

He will be fully aware of Woodley's right hand. He knew Wonderboy was just looking to counter him hence why the fight was so boring and Till feinting a lot and not fully committing. Also Wonderboy has a lot more weapons than Woodley and Till had no problem handling his striking game. This fight might go the same way.

In terms of Woodley's wrestling, last guy to take down Till consistently was Dalby but Till has improved his takedown defense and has gotten even bigger. If Woodley struggles to land takedowns, it's going to drain him which is huge over 5 rounds. He doesn't go for a lot of takedowns because he is trying to conserve his energy/cardio.

Wonderboy after Till fight said it was nearly impossible to move Till, he felt like a brick wall (he was too big).

I like Till's ML and waiting to see what over/under opens at.
Hey guys. Havent been in this subforum since they closed all the available betting websites in Argentina. This is by far the best and less biased subforum on Sherdog.

I really love this Till-Woodley matchup.

Woodley has 2 clear paths of victory:
1. Go back against the fence and explode with the big right overhand:
He did that a lot against Condit and landed all the time (Condit had a chin tho).
FWIW I have seen a lot of footage on Woodley for myself because sometimes is sparr taller guys who I cant get close to and it worth it but you can easily time those entrances (tell that to my nose lol). If Till does his homework he should be able to counter that but it is easier say than done. Woodley is a really explosive individual and covers a lot of ground when he attacks.

2. Wrestling, wrestling and wrestling. Tyron is no Khabib on top but he has good takedowns, specially his double leg. Im 100% sure he will be shooting. If he puts Till on his back he is going to aim to maintain position and score points instead of go for the kill and do damage. Thing is that once a fighter is put on your back and keep there for the remaining of the round they tend to be more tentative because Lay and Pray still wins fights.
I have confidence that if Woodley secure a position on the ground he is not going to lose it. I dont trust Tills ground game off his back.
Wonderboy has top notch TDD but Woodley could take him down.

Till path to victory is clear as day too. Come in with a boxing heavy gameplan, pressure and try to box Woodley against the fence like Rory did.
He has the best boxing and distance control of the two for sure but the only thing that worries me is that sometimes he eats one to land one. Woodley can be hesitant but if he lands clean he can put anybody out.
The key to Darren is to keep the fight at his own range and be aware of Woodley entrances (being that overhands or double legs TDs). If he does that this is his fight.

Cardio wise... Woodley has not a good gas tank despite his claims. He only paces himself by throwing just the necessary to win rounds. Wonderboy fought him at slow pace and nothing happened in the Maia fight. Who was the last guy to make Woodley work?
Till cuts a zillion lbs to make WW but he is younger and a striking speciallist so if this becomes a stand up fight I pick him to outlast Woodley because he will be fighting at his rythm.

It is really hard to make a prediction on this one so it is a dog or pass for me. Funny thing is that after writing that I keep thinking that the winner will dominate his rival. I dont see it being close.
 
https://sportv.globo.com/site/comba...-confirmadas-do-contender-series-brasil.ghtml

Link in portuguese about fighters for contender series Brazil in september, maybe will have good odds for this events.
I doubt we will be getting any odds for this at all. They're filming it in the TUF gym this week in Las Vegas, same as the regular Contender Series, but according to what I read a while back it is not going to be shown live on Fight Pass in English, but on tv or something in Brazil only in September and then maybe tape delayed on Fight Pass, probably with English sub-titles if the commentary is in Portuguese.
 
Conor back up to +155. I wonder if he just doesn't get the same love this fight that he did vs. Floyd.

I mean he *did* lose to Floyd, so all of the same people may be hesitant to give away their money again on Conor.

Also he is going against prime Khabib who will probably never be available for -1xx again until he shows signs of decline. So it's possible that clueful people are thirstier for Khabib action than Irish people and casuals are for Conor action.

But most casual bettors probably don't place their bets two months before the fight either. I don't know, I usually suck at predicting line movement but I think the lines are gonna be tighter later on.
 
But most casual bettors probably don't place their bets two months before the fight either. I don't know, I usually suck at predicting line movement but I think the lines are gonna be tighter later on.

Definitely. Here in Europe, Mayweather hit -333 in fight week against Conor. In a boxing match.

Here we have Conor against Khabib who as great as he is to a casual fan his best win is RDA four years ago, if they even know who RDA is. And you know Conor will be talking a good game at the press conferences. Most people know the Mayweather fight has no bearing on this. You tell the average casual/Conor fan you can get him at + odds against a wrestler and they will think that's a great bet. But those people only look at the betting odds in the week of the fight.
 
Khabib with a -1 is good let alone the legitimate possibility of getting a + number.
 
General props up for Conor Khabib. Took Khabib dec for a bit at +380.
 
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