Sherdog's Own Pick for UFC 229: Conor McGregor vs. Khabib Nurmagomedov

Who wins?


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Honestly, I do not see a way for Conor to stop Khabib's chain wrestling if they find themselves in the clinch, easily the best part of Khabib's game and possibly the weakest of Conor's. The way he's able to seamlessly transition from takedown/trip attempts there is like the Phil Davis from the Teixeira fight on steroids. On the ground, things could get grim for Conor, but I think Khabib might let him stand just to take him down over and over, to sap away at his suspect gas tank and soften him up for the eventual finish.

Having said that, I think Conor might be able to get things done early for a couple of reasons. First and foremost: he always starts his fights moving around, with good footwork, which lets have an easier time probing with strikes until he finds his range and, after lulling his opponent into a false sense of security, he whips out the first left hand that catches them off-guard. The MJ fight taught us that a fast southpaw could pose problems for Khabib on the feet, even if the latter was not on the receiving end of any significant damage – even in what was Michael's brightest moment, which was that combo that "rocked" Khabib we saw that the strike did not do so much as put him slightly off-balance.

For as much as people want to act as though Khabib closing the distance and wrapping up Conor is a foregone conclusion, in his fights against dangerous, fast strikers like Barboza and MJ, it has been apparent that he'll take at least a minute before trying to initiate the grappling, and in that minute he does look vulnerable to strikes, particularly body shots, his defense for head strikes is not bad at all, although you could argue that the reason he sometimes eats strikes at the start of his bouts is due to wanting to start pressuring his opponent and dictating the pace of the fight from the get-go.

Should he do the same against Conor, I could see him getting stunned and finished, but I still have to give the edge to Khabib, since he has the ability to, at the very least, stall the fight until Conor starts to be less mobile, which would be in the second round or so. Having said that, I will pick Conor because I believe he has the ability to exploit whatever opening Khabib will inevitably leave at the start of the fight. The first few minutes will be telling.
 
Look who had top billing (2 spots) ... ;)

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The lack of shookness being broken down is disappointing, makes me think the majority of these picks are not by elite fight predictors
 
The lack of shookness being broken down is disappointing, makes me think the majority of these picks are not by elite fight predictors
No weigh-in yet brother.

Besides, that would warrant a standalone breakdown imo.
 
The lack of shookness being broken down is disappointing, makes me think the majority of these picks are not by elite fight predictors

Khabib’s shookness will be overwhelming his entire being, when the cage door is locked and the fight starts the second he sees Conor’s movement he will freeze and he will eat that left hand and his living dieded body will clatter off the canvas leaving everybody on sherdog counting on him to defeat Conor in a 72 hour long intense stage of weeping. After 3 days of mourning their L they will emerge with El Cucuy AVs.
 
No weigh-in yet brother.

Besides, that would warrant a standalone breakdown imo.
There is enough data between the backstage faceoff at UFC 205, bus incident and presser
Anyone schmuck can see who is shook at a weigh-in
Amateur hour around here

I will let the sherbros know what time it is when I drop my thread later this week on who is shook and can't possibly win.
 
While your technical breakdown was great, brutha...

Khabib’s shookness will be overwhelming his entire being, when the cage door is locked and the fight starts the second he sees Conor’s movement he will freeze and he will eat that left hand and his living dieded body will clatter off the canvas leaving everybody on sherdog counting on him to defeat Conor in a 72 hour long intense stage of weeping. After 3 days of mourning their L they will emerge with El Cucuy AVs.

<PlusJuan>
THIS....
Is what makes you elite​
 
There is enough data between the backstage faceoff at UFC 205, bus incident and presser
Anyone schmuck can see who is shook at a weigh-in
Amateur hour around here

I will let the sherbros know what time it is when I drop my thread later this week on who is shook and can't possibly win.
I would speak about Khabib's shookness and even scenarios that could increase his levels of shoketh, but that yellow card I got a month ago changed me.

No more shall I speak ill of Khabib in a MOD infested land.

I hope you do not suffer their autism attack wrath.
 
Khabib by submission in round 4

Multiple knockdowns in first two rounds by McGregor mixed with Khabib grinding against the cage to survive and diving for low singles. Khabib will go through hell

Conor will then slow and Khabib starts to get takedowns and eventually locks in a sub. It won't be easy though, Conor will stay in it for a while on the ground
 
While your technical breakdown was great, brutha...



<PlusJuan>
THIS....
Is what makes you elite​


<{monica}>

The breakdown was the equivalent of using a work voice. Everybody knows the outcome and the end result will be the glassed jawed eagle shattering and crumbling inside the furst round.
 
I bet my 13 year old account on Conor winning.

Conor by TKO in the 3rd.
 
Cage Rust + Booze/Drugs + fear of takedowns = Khabib wins.

If Conor doesn't catch him in the first round then he's in big trouble as I expect him to gas and/or panic. Khabib just needs to be fucking smart and unemotional about it.
 
TS Mod Auggie you were right to not dare quote me without my express written permission, I therefore grace this cyber nonsense with my esteemed and all knowing comments. The Bib kicks his ass . Cunner looks for an out by end of rd 3
 
Khabib is over confident with his striking and spends a little to much time engaging Connor on the feet.
The result is he gets tagged early and can't fully implement his game plan. Connor stays at range and slowly picks him apart. Third round KO for the Irishman.
 
Khabib is my champion right now.

Khabib will be everyone's champion after Saturday.
 
If they fight 10 times, I think Khabib wins 8 or 9.

Oct 6 - Khabib in the 3rd
 
I voted Conor

I'm not super confident in my pick, but I just think he's got alot more experience in these huge fights. Khabib has never dealt with pressure like this, we've already seen Conor fold Alvarez and Aldo, two great fighters basically were defeated before they entered the cage.

I do not think Khabib would put those two away in 2 rounds total. No chance. Khabib will grind Conor, but every round starts with Conor having an opportunity to make something happen.

I expect him to have 5 chances, Khabib isn't a great finisher
 
Conor via T/KO within 2
 
Either man can take it, but I would lean more toward Khabib winning seeing as he has more ways to win.
 
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