UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis (Nov 3, 2018)

[Stunna77]

I mean I get what people are saying. The risk of these guys to lose can potentially be high seeing as 1 punch can end a fight. But what does Derrick Lewis bring to the table besides one lucky punch? The guy gasses after throwing that stupid jumping high switch kick he does. DC will walk forward if he wants to, he will beat him up on the feet and if he wants to take Lewis down at ease. Wouldn't be surprised to see a crucifix stoppage in the 1st or 2nd round.

Brunson is a counter machine, guy swings widely with his chin in the air often in most fights, unless he sticks to a pure grappling game plan or catches a lucky shot Brunson will get eaten up for 3 rounds or stopped.

I'd be most concerned for Eubanks as she lacks MMA experience and is fighting a super vet in Roxanne who could win but I don't see her having the athleticism to do much against Eubanks. Hence why these 3 are huge favorites.

My question really was is it worth the $129 bet to collect $229. Usually when I put together 3 or 4 fight parlays where I mix in a dog or two I lose the bet so I wanted to see if maybe I could bet on 3 big favorites that by all rights should take home a win. But obviously in this sport anything can happen. At a +500 Lewis isn't anything special for me to bet on. I went hard on DC vs Stipe and took a lot of shit from people on these forums for it but it paid off.

Really not trying to come off as a dick, so please don't take it that way, but you are not understanding what people are saying. They are telling you due to the inflated odds this parlay is not a good one to make. You ask it again above if the $129 to collect $229 is a good bet, but becasue the odds on all three are shit, the return is not worth the risk. Personally on these fights I would stick to props, i.e. D.C. rds 2/3 or simply ITD, Israel dec, and Eubanks dec would be the three I would look at seeing as those are the three you are on. Israel and Eubanks ML's in particular are way wide IMO.

 

[Tyrrax]

I mean I get what people are saying. The risk of these guys to lose can potentially be high seeing as 1 punch can end a fight. But what does Derrick Lewis bring to the table besides one lucky punch? The guy gasses after throwing that stupid jumping high switch kick he does. DC will walk forward if he wants to, he will beat him up on the feet and if he wants to take Lewis down at ease. Wouldn't be surprised to see a crucifix stoppage in the 1st or 2nd round.

Brunson is a counter machine, guy swings widely with his chin in the air often in most fights, unless he sticks to a pure grappling game plan or catches a lucky shot Brunson will get eaten up for 3 rounds or stopped.

I'd be most concerned for Eubanks as she lacks MMA experience and is fighting a super vet in Roxanne who could win but I don't see her having the athleticism to do much against Eubanks. Hence why these 3 are huge favorites.

My question really was is it worth the $129 bet to collect $229. Usually when I put together 3 or 4 fight parlays where I mix in a dog or two I lose the bet so I wanted to see if maybe I could bet on 3 big favorites that by all rights should take home a win. But obviously in this sport anything can happen. At a +500 Lewis isn't anything special for me to bet on. I went hard on DC vs Stipe and took a lot of shit from people on these forums for it but it paid off.

Your parlay is garbage, odds are way too wide on all three of those fights and there's an excellent chance 1 or more legs fails.

Don't get me wrong I get what you're going for, I do parlays like that sometimes and I usually win when I do them, but the UFC just isn't the right promotion to parlay huge favorites in.

 

[piglord]

the UFC just isn't the right promotion to parlay huge favorites in.

haha this man speaks the truth

 

[GoldenWolf87]

Predicting DC win as TKO is quite a risk.

 

[Larthus]

Moraes/Arce is going to be fire the first two rounds, 3rd round is def Arce's to lose. That said, I think Moraes TKO +1185 is defo worth a stab. He throws heat and has vicious body shots.

This. Julio has mean grappling & paces very well. Can’t picture Moraes taking a decision against him. Moraes most likely path to victory is KO/TKO although I think he will get subbed by Julio (who is an absolute savage on the ground).

I still think Julio is a lock but that’s just my opinion

 

[Larthus]

If you’re going to parlay anything on this card I think Arce / Burgos is the best option.

 

[AIGOD]

Beast is getting the rousey holms odds. Derrick is by no means more technical..but younger, bigger, good chin, big power, a nice ko record. I kind of see him tkoing 4o year old dc. And im a dc fan. Bigger beast fan tho. That aside, the upset is bigger on paper than actual chances.

 

[Paulsp]

I get the skill gap is huge but Lewis KO/TKO +800 is kinda wild

 

[burge13]

DC has a bad hand doesnt he? If so I doubt he wants to risk it throwing bombs at a durable guy. Sub more likely than tko? I like the starts round 2 prop whoever pointed that out.

 

[Danis_champ]

I like Israel by sub odds 12.00. He told helwani that he has been hitting a lot of subs in practice lately. Maybe worth a small stab?

 

[Gugabe]

Your parlay is garbage, odds are way too wide on all three of those fights and there's an excellent chance 1 or more legs fails.

Don't get me wrong I get what you're going for, I do parlays like that sometimes and I usually win when I do them, but the UFC just isn't the right promotion to parlay huge favorites in.

Especially when two of those favorites are fighting against ultra-high volatility fighters in Lewis & Brunson.

 

[piglord]

one more:

https://mmaoddsbreaker.com/news/13619-ufc-230-brian-kelleher-vs-montel-jackson-betting-prediction

 

[Gugabe]

I'm going deep on Brunson KO1 @ +1300. 2.5u down

 

[lefontes]

Overs/Unders available

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Overs/Unders available

My book has them for every fight except for the main event...

What's the o/u @ for it, if you don't mind me asking?

 

[MT6ix]

What kind of size advantage is Montel Jackson going to enjoy over Kelleher?

Montel Jackson is going to look huge against any bantamweight including Kelleher. The reach advantage is ridiculous 75.5 inches to 66 inches favouring Jackson.

It's an interesting fight to cap, if Kelleher decides to just stand at range with Jackson he is going to find himself eating Jackson's jab and cross and eating inside leg kicks since Jackson is a southpaw all night with that reach disparity. Jackson has good footwork and knows how to control range and distance but as a young developing fighter hasn't truly realized how to use all his physical gifts yet. His work rate needs to get better, prefers to pick his shots. Mature and composed for a young fighter.

Jackson fights really tall hence why he can get taken down but his get ups are good and makes good use of the fence to get up.

Kelleher can outwork him but he has to get close. Kelleher was eating Barao's jab and cross consistently before Barao wilted and Barao's reach is only 70 inches compared to Jackson's at 75.5 inches. I don't think Kelleher can win the fight, fighting at range.

Surprised Jackson opened as a big dog, odds should be around 50/50 or Jackson as a slight fav imo.

 

[Gugabe]

My book has them for every fight except for the main event...

What's the o/u @ for it, if you don't mind me asking?

Fight to start R2 is 1.71 (-140ish), so guessing 1.5?

 

[Deleted member 316645]

Fight to start R2 is 1.71 (-140ish), so guessing 1.5?

Word, so I'm guessing u1.5 is around -160ish. Seems about right. I was hoping it would be -120 or so, though.

 

[Yotsuya]

Cormier dec at 15.5 with possibly injured hand? I think there’s a chance of lay’n’pray win if Lewis is just too strong and stubborn to be subbed without serious pounding.

 

[KBE6EKCTAH_CCP]

$500 on brunson and $300 lewis. dont expect to win either.

im a newb and i mostly like to bet $750-1250 on a lot of +150 dogs i feel good about since im on a good streak with woodley, thales leites, oleynik and anthony smith. jacare is perfect for me so i shud probably do it gosh.

Damn. That's a lot of dough on these 2 fights, you have a lot of cash on your hands. Good on you!

BTW I would make that bet (as stated, 2 x high-variance events) before the other dude's bet ITT who had like +125 to combine bets on DC, Israel and I don't remember the third one.

Good luck to you.

EDIT : made a mistake, said dude was at -129 for his parlay.