UFN 140 Ponzinibbio vs Magny

[AxeMurderer]

Aspen Ladd looked really awful during her weigh in against Evinger (not quite as bad) and she went out and dominated

Who knows, maybe Calvillo was just really really stoned

True. She does have time to recover, but Ladd was physically stronger than evinger. I don’t know if she can’t get her down, how this weight cut will affect her movement later in the fight. Either way I hate seeing a fighter I already bet on look like that at early weigh ins.

 

[Bestonian]

And she would've fell off the scale if not for somebody holding her. Cant remember a woman looking as bad in weigh ins before.

literally last event Pennington. She was crying on the scale and couldn't even hold a bottle.

 

[Rasdun]

Lamas -170 is line of the card, was planning on upping my units this card or next anyways, so added to Lamas. Technically 6u in total now (would be 4u with new unit size).

I was suprised that Lamas came all the way down. I though -215 was decent value, but -160 is pretty good, as I cap lamas at about -250 here.

 

[Irish Teets]

It feels like all the money would be coming in Lamas but his line is dropping...weird.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Aspen Ladd looked really awful during her weigh in against Evinger (not quite as bad) and she went out and dominated

Who knows, maybe Calvillo was just really really stoned

There have definitely been instances where fighters looked dreadful weighing in and came out and won, but there are a few things to keep in mind;

-I struggle to think of anyone who looked QUITE as bad as Calvillo did. I rewatched the Ladd weigh-in and while she looked rough, she looked at least three times as good as Calvillo did. Spoke and walked normally, managed to pose and flex.

-Most fighters who weighed in poorly but won did so against opponents they were vastly superior to. Not the case here.

-Related to the last point, most such fighters had the option of taking their opponent down and winning there, as Ladd did. Calvillo's path to victory, as I outlined yesterday, consisted of frustrating Botelho with her movement and beating her to the punch for 3 rounds while avoiding any big punches or kicks. That's asking an awful lot for someone who looked so dreadful at weigh-ins.

With that in mind, I put 3.67 units on Botelho at -165 and about 1.4 units on Botelho inside the distance at +230.

 

[null]

There have definitely been instances where fighters looked dreadful weighing in and came out and won, but there are a few things to keep in mind;

-I struggle to think of anyone who looked QUITE as bad as Calvillo did. I rewatched the Ladd weigh-in and while she looked rough, she looked at least three times as good as Calvillo did. Spoke and walked normally, managed to pose and flex.

-Most fighters who weighed in poorly but won did so against opponents they were vastly superior to. Not the case here.

-Related to the last point, most such fighters had the option of taking their opponent down and winning there, as Ladd did. Calvillo's path to victory, as I outlined yesterday, consisted of frustrating Botelho with her movement and beating her to the punch for 3 rounds while avoiding any big punches or kicks. That's asking an awful lot for someone who looked so dreadful at weigh-ins.

With that in mind, I put 3.67 units on Botelho at -165 and about 1.4 units on Botelho inside the distance at +230.

Calvillo also has a significant submission threat, but Botelho has never been submitted.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

Calvillo also has a significant submission threat, but Botelho has never been submitted.

Calvillo needs to get her to the ground first, and I don't see that happening against the much bigger, stronger, better wrestler in Botelho. Even then, Calvillo's jits, while definitely good, is slightly overrated as a finisher. She dominated a hopelessly overmatched Cooper, and after beating her on the feet for 2 rounds, finished an exhausted Gonzalez in round 3. She wasn't able to finish Robertson (pre-UFC) or Calderwood despite many opportunities.

This leads me to believe Calvillo struggles with bigger, stronger girls on the ground with even a sliver of skill there, and that certainly describes Botelho, who powers out of some good submission attempts and whose jits is good at stalling.

 

[Bestonian]

Included Aldana accidentally on all my parlays. Instant regret. How is a 4-1 nobody a lock against a 7-1 nobody (and his only 'good' trait is that he performed well in his loss)? It's like asking for Te'Edwards vs Don Madge to happen again.'

Damn, not an easy life being a degenerate.

 

[thewiggo]

Included Aldana accidentally on all my parlays. Instant regret. How is a 4-1 nobody a lock against a 7-1 nobody (and his only 'good' trait is that he performed well in his loss)? It's like asking for Te'Edwards vs Don Madge to happen again.'

Damn, not an easy life being a degenerate.

There are worse mistakes. Theres a reason a 2/1 underdog changed to a favourite in 48 hrs.
That doesnt happen too often across all books unless there is a line error.

 

[PolarBearPaulVarelans]

How is a 4-1 nobody a lock against a 7-1 nobody

This is why you watch the fights, not just look at records.

 

[Stunna77]

Thoughts on Lamas ITD?

Leaning towards a finish, but wanted something better then +2xx, Elkins has survived some awful spots. That said I think his chin is starting fail him. Volk is not a power puncher and had him slumped over where a lot of refs wouldve stepped in. If lamas gets him in that spot you can bet that neck is going to get attacked real quick.

 

[Edomite]

Where do you guys go to look up the judges/ref assigned to each bout? This is the small cage I'm assuming?

 

[Dianabol]

Leaning towards a finish, but wanted something better then +2xx, Elkins has survived some awful spots. That said I think his chin is starting fail him. Volk is not a power puncher and had him slumped over where a lot of refs wouldve stepped in. If lamas gets him in that spot you can bet that neck is going to get attacked real quick.

I kind of hope Lamas doesn't go for guillotines, doing that costed him position several times in his last fight. Elkins also seems to have good defense against guillotines, not surprising seeing as he trains at TAM. Going for that sub is a good way for Lamas to end up on his back. I'd prefer if Lamas just stands with Elkins for 3 rounds.

 

[Stunna77]

I kind of hope Lamas doesn't go for guillotines, doing that costed him position several times in his last fight. Elkins also seems to have good defense against guillotines, not surprising seeing as he trains at TAM. Going for that sub is a good way for Lamas to end up on his back. I'd prefer if Lamas just stands with Elkins for 3 rounds.

I agree I don't want him jumping on guillotines, I think the only way he does so is if Elkins is rocked. He was looking for a big moment against Bektic as he was outgunned, but I doubt he feels the need to do so against Elkins where he will be 100% in control of the standup.

 

[Yotsuya]

I hope some more money comes in on Fabinski after people seeing the height discrepency in the face off. Would really like Prazeres at closer to even

1.83 now. Great! I’ve been itching to bet Praz.

 

[Stunna77]

Not sure if I am square or what, but I am going in on some of these reduced lines. Praz -120 and Ponz -215

 

[Danis_champ]

It's like $12 a month. Why are you people like this? Support the sport you love and make footage way easier to get.

Yeah people are fucking poor

Dropping hundreds of dollars on fights but can't afford fight pass.

 

[Stunna77]

Good luck tomorrow gents. Thought it was going to be a light card and then lines moved very favorably. Let's go Lamas, Aldana, Pantoja, Praz, Arnett and Ponz!

 

[hard bondage of course]

Calvillo is great one the ground when she bothers to take fights there before the last 30 seconds of each round, but another major cautionary factor (along with everything else) has to be the fact that one of her arms is made out of glass and re-breaks constantly. It may be that she just didn't let it heal properly because she jumped back into training or had bad luck with the recovery, but it could also be a significant limiting factor on her career longevity and potential, and it's probably at least somewhat of a liability against anyone with an active kicking game.

 

[Bestonian]

Calvillo is great one the ground when she bothers to take fights there before the last 30 seconds of each round, but another major cautionary factor (along with everything else) has to be the fact that one of her arms is made out of glass and re-breaks constantly. It may be that she just didn't let it heal properly because she jumped back into training or had bad luck with the recovery, but it could also be a significant limiting factor on her career longevity and potential, and it's probably at least somewhat of a liability against anyone with an active kicking game.

I don't know anything about Calvillo's hands but Botelho has pretty fragile hands - hits too hard for her own good, regular hand injuries.