UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

[Dianabol]

He came forward more against Santos, but it was kind of a... desperate pressure, I felt like. He got tired since he forced a bunch of ugly shots, which I don't think is necessarily even going to win him the fight against Theodorou.

How many improvements can he realistically have made in 10 weeks? He was suspended for 45 days no contact after Santos by the commission (Which probably wasn't followed as soon as he got a second opinion) https://www.mmamania.com/2018/9/25/...cal-suspensions-released-santos-vs-anders-mma so that cut even further into his training time.

Those commission medical suspensions are always over the top, I think Anders just got the standard suspension for a TKO loss. Anders said he went on a 10 day vacation after the fight then got right back to training.

Anders got tired because he was implementing a gameplan that was very physically taxing and he had 6 days to prepare, he also came into fight week about 220 lbs. Besides that fight I've never seen Anders really gas out, his cardio is solid, highly doubt he'll gas vs Theodorou.

Yeah I don't really think Ander's is going to come into this fight looking improved but I'm not interested in that. What I am interested is his ability to perform. Anders has the skills and athleticism to win this fight but he needs to be on point, he can't have anything less than a good performance.

Watching that Machida fight again, it's so bad. Anders just waits and waits and waits. There were moments in the fight were Anders would just stare at him for like 2 minutes and do nothing. His output and urgency was pathetic in that fight. Anders just seemed like he wanted to counter the whole fight.

Just knowing that Anders is capable of having a performance like he did against Machida really lowers his stock in my eyes. The fight was very close, the rounds were very close, it could of gone either way, IDK how to score it. Should have been an easy KO win for Anders, just needed more aggression.

Theodorou's striking is probably more similar to Machida's than any other of Anders opponents. One of the things I do like about Theodorou is he's consistent, he doesn't have bad performances, if he loses its because his opponent is better.

Anders vs Theodorou all comes down to how Anders performs, I know what Theodorou is going to do but I can't be sure about Anders, he's saying all the right things though.

 

[Xuh]

A first time lurker clicking through this thread must think Ortega is some kind of second-coming, demi-god. To those people, if you're out there: he isn't.

I mean, are you sure he's not the second coming?

Spoiler

 

[Xuh]

I like the odds on Ansaroff. Will win the striking for sure and much better cardio so will improve as the fight goes on. Reasonably mobile so (hopefully) won't give up TD's to easy all the time, especially as the fight goes on and Gadelha gasses. Has looked better every fight since being with ATT (who've trained fighters to beat Gadelha before), hasn't lost since 2014 (Kish fight was a robbery). Last fight was also vs a grappler so has been preparing for TD threat for a while (she handled it well and got stronger as the fight went on - perfect for this bout?). Drinks the essence of Nunes right from the cup.

Meanwhile Gadelha has terrible carido, looked not so great in her last two fights, seems a little unfocused: running her own camp, talked about wanting a 'break' after the Android fight (not a great sign IMO), getting fake boobs, thirsting for Ortega, etc. So I feel it's a good time to try and catch the fade. Am hoping Ansaroff gets up as high as 4.0 if the degen #elite #locksonly parlay money starts rolling in on Gadelha. Looking to bet 0.5u-1u on her.

 

[Dianabol]

Who wouldn't be desperate fighting Santos? You know you can't sit back because he will chop you to pieces with those kicks, and he's scary as fuck. Elias is the opposite of scary

Do you think Anders will beat Theodorou?

 

[Card]

Picks Ortega and Shev

 

[Gugabe]

Who wouldn't be desperate fighting Santos? You know you can't sit back because he will chop you to pieces with those kicks, and he's scary as fuck. Elias is the opposite of scary

I'm not saying there wasn't a reason for Anders selling out for the TDs, just that I really didn't like what he was doing from a technical POV. He's still incredibly raw in both his striking and his wrestling, and I don't think he's enough of an athletic talent to make up for it consistently.

 

[TrueAscension]

$1057 on the line. Fucking pissed off last night playing poker, was a 90% favorite in a $4600 pot and lost. Said fuck it. Betting the rest of my bal on these fights. And added the patriots giving 8 points.

Let me win gamble gods. Please sherdog pray for me.

From one degenerate to another, there are legit 20 other NFL plays I would have made on this parlay than the Pats who opened as like a 10 point favorite I believe.

 

[Kyle Stephens]

One of the things I do like about Theodorou is he's consistent, he doesn't have bad performances, if he loses its because his opponent is better.

True

Anders vs Theodorou all comes down to how Anders performs, I know what Theodorou is going to do but I can't be sure about Anders, he's saying all the right things though

I''ve burned myself before with Anders's smart talk and other young fighters (he is not young but young in MMA years) like him talking the right things. Talking right ≠ fighting right.

getting fake boobs

Always a bad sign.

 

[harikari]

I like the odds on Ansaroff. Will win the striking for sure and much better cardio so will improve as the fight goes on. Reasonably mobile so (hopefully) won't give up TD's to easy all the time, especially as the fight goes on and Gadelha gasses. Has looked better every fight since being with ATT (who've trained fighters to beat Gadelha before), hasn't lost since 2014 (Kish fight was a robbery). Last fight was also vs a grappler so has been preparing for TD threat for a while (she handled it well and got stronger as the fight went on - perfect for this bout?). Drinks the essence of Nunes right from the cup.

Meanwhile Gadelha has terrible cardio.

Yeah. Her decision line is already 4/1. Her KO line is 9/1.

 

[Card]

No stress in this camp, I'm at peace, I'm going to get a finish, I don't go to the judges score card

 

[Card]

 

[theTKDguy]

Picks Ortega and Shev

Jimmy knows

 

[theTKDguy]

Ortega vs holloway over/under line set at 3.5 fuuuuck. That's tricky af

Shev vs jj set at 4.5, I like the under but not completely sure. It's either shev by dec or sub

 

[Oblivian]

Jimmy knows

I hope his prediction ability is a lot better than his ability to score a fight.

 

[Deleted member 448575]

So the fact the line drops makes you more confident that Ortega wins?

I placed my bet when he was 2.10. Now Ortega is the favorite on 5dimes and Pinnacle. I'm not saying it makes me more confident but I'm not surprised about the line movement either considering how good Ortega is and how many question marks there are about Holloway.

 

[theTKDguy]

I hope his prediction ability is a lot better than his ability to score a fight.

Lol I don't watch the english broadcast as much as spanish. Jimmy sounds fairly knowledgeable when I hear him tho

 

[Oblivian]

Lol I don't watch the english broadcast as much as spanish. Jimmy sounds fairly knowledgeable when I hear him tho

He is knowledgeable, but honestly, he's probably the worst that I've ever heard at scoring a fight. The UFC has pulled him back on this quite a bit. In Bellator, he'd have to give his score after every round. I don't know if he was trying to play devil's advocate too much, but it wouldn't be uncommon for him to have a 30-27 going 29-28 the other way.

 

[ViolenceFight]

Bro...some people made 100 folds their initial investments here. In fact, guys like pig live off of gambling. I dunno bro. Stats plus my own judgement tells me its holloway. Best of luck man.

I’ll be back after Saturday, & we’ll see who’s right. And I only gamble because it was recently legalized in my home state & it makes watching more fun. Tripling my initial deposit over the course of about 3 months isn’t the worst start in the world. I’ve been an mma fan for over 15 years, I’ll trust my own judgement over stats. Just wondering- how long have you been following mma?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Under 1.5 +100 for BC/Gunni is awful tempting. Cowboys aggressive blitz either gets him the ko or gets him counter punched to a sub n' club.

 

[Gugabe]

I’ll be back after Saturday, & we’ll see who’s right. And I only gamble because it was recently legalized in my home state & it makes watching more fun. Tripling my initial deposit over the course of about 3 months isn’t the worst start in the world. I’ve been an mma fan for over 15 years, I’ll trust my own judgement over stats. Just wondering- how long have you been following mma?

Sounds like you haven't learned bankroll management. TIme spent watching MMA rarely turns into good capping by itself. I've known a range of guys who've had extensive experience in the sport (A few long-term UFC refs), and yet were both crap gamblers and not good at predicting anything much.

Under 1.5 +100 for BC/Gunni is awful tempting. Cowboys aggressive blitz either gets him the ko or gets him counter punched to a sub n' club.

Yeah. Fully agreed. Oli'll probably have the aggression to clonk Gunni upside the head, or walk into a counter and get dropped for a choke.