UFN 146 on ESPN+ 4 Lewis vs Dos Santos

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quite surprised to see dos santos as the heavy favourite. i was expecting him to be the underdog and i was going to put money on him but now i'm unsure.
 
Throwing a hefty amount on Lewis @ +180 because I feel like as we get closer to the fight it'll become a pick'em.
 
I like Lewis a lot in this fight against this version of Dos Santos. Unlike Tuivasa, Lewis just needs to land once.
 
Bets on Lewis usually look extraordinarily square until they don't. JDS looked super in shape against Ivanov and proved he's still got fight ending power as well. -245 though sheesh.
 
Ivanov should beat Rothwell whos been out since forever? I havent looked at it too deeply yet but my initial thought was ivanov slight fav rather than pick em as it is now
 
burge13 said:
Ivanov should beat Rothwell whos been out since forever? I havent looked at it too deeply yet but my initial thought was ivanov slight fav rather than pick em as it is now
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I like Ivanov too, long lay off for Rothwell who was never that great to begin with. I think Ivanov picks him apart in a rather lackluster fashion, looks like Ivanov losing a one sided fight to JDS is probably shifting the odds even though Rothwell did exactly in his last fight.
 
The line movement on Schnell/Smolka is insane IMO. Definitely playing Smolka at + odds. He'll probably be my biggest play for the night.
 
Schnell is my boy cashing against Mizukis brother but he's vastly outmached on the ground even if it is Smolka. Hope he's got his drinking problem in order...
 
Will be on Millender as well. I think he's the better striker and Zaleski isn't much of a wrestling threat. Expecting a kickboxing match where Curtis should have some more weapons.

Fading Niko Price is a good idea but Dirty Bird -190? <{1-17}>

Taking my chances on Reneau as well.

Will be looking to be on Hughes in some way.

Is Dan Moret pretty bad? Alex White be burning me lately. Maybe it's that gasoline he drank...
 
Tempted by Dan Moret but need to check more tape. In theory he could outgrapple White but he didn't look great vs Burns. Of course any grappler outside the top 10 will look bad against Burns so it means little. Stunned Burns in the first and made him wrestle but the KO was brutal at the end.

It might just be me wanting to fade White hard after he got wrecked by Jim Miller. He gave Krause a tough fight though which I like as I rate Krause pretty highly.
 
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After millender's last performance i will fade him. I don't know about zaleski's wrestling, but I have seen him do a few takedowns at least. I think he should be able to mix up his striking with his wrestling and trouble Millender. Zaleski has got a better gastank as well. Will look at more tape, but leaning zaleski.
 
burge13 said:
Ivanov should beat Rothwell whos been out since forever? I havent looked at it too deeply yet but my initial thought was ivanov slight fav rather than pick em as it is now
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Yeah Rothwell been out 3 years and coming off a USADA suspension. I don't think a 37 year old Rothwell does well in the USADA era. Blagoy is nothing special but he's a solid competitor, well rounded, much younger and he's in a must win position.

Rothwell probably looks the worst you've ever seen him, tell me why I should expect anything different.

Fading Rothwell, he's throwing up red flags.
 
Naught2Sixty said:
Schnell is my boy cashing against Mizukis brother but he's vastly outmached on the ground even if it is Smolka. Hope he's got his drinking problem in order...
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Schnell isn't bad on the ground, he's tapped BJJ black belts. I think he can hang with Smolka on the mat. This fight is a hard one to predict but I lean Schnell because of the style match up. Schnell's weakness is his chin, Smolka can't punch.
 
I like Ivanov here.

Card is pretty weak, especially compared to yesterday

I like some things kunitskaya does but Marion is probably better than her just about everywhere. Took the +135, think the line closes a bit closer

Also bet millender just because of where the odds were

Need to do some taping here for sure

You almost have to play beast rd 3

Not really interested in paying over -200 for jds or means

I’m always interested in fading juicy j but wasn’t into paying -185 for grant

These prices suck
 
Tough card for sure

I like Means and Grant Dawson but you're paying a lot of juice right now.

Should Alex Morono be -240 against anyone in the UFC?
 
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