UFC 238 Cejudo vs Moraes

[mkess101]

I know I was just messing with him cuz of the big betting strategy discussion I'd been reading earlier in the thread.

Ahh I get it now LOL.

I'll ahh...see myself out...

 

[mkess101]

The Quintessential Guide to Cerrone vs Ferguson - at least my take on it anyway

We pretty much know exactly what Ferguson is going to do to a degree, he’ll have a slowish half a round or so before steadily applying pressure walking forward throwing a variety of kicks, punches, elbows etc. His defence won’t be great and contrary to what some believe I think its incredibly unlikely he uses his wrestling offensively. Cerrone has great TDD and the last time Ferguson actually hit a legit TD was a bodylock slam on a rocked Kikuno in 2014.

The first question is how, or can, Cerrone deal with that pressure, fortunately he too is quite predictable. Looking at many of Cerrone’s recent fights people have tried similar gameplans to what Ferguson most likely will, marching forward swinging and trying to overwhelm Cerrone. In different fights Cerrone has used different tactics individually or combined to counter this. Against Yancy, Cerrone kept his composure and countered with hard straight shots up the middle landing his right hand repeatedly and getting a R1 TKO. Against Hernandez he did similar but actively pushed Hernandez onto the backfoot and additionally hit a reactive double leg, he also threw knees up the middle as Hernandez ducked in. With Lawler he got into a clinch battle (which Lawler happily got into) before timing another reactive shot and getting Lawler down for half a round later into the second he also aggressively came forward putting Lawler on the backfoot especially in the second round. So essentially Cerrone’s counters to pressure are reactive TD’s, linear strikes (knees and punches mainly) and then clinching.

Then the question is how Tony deal with all those counters. Tony does have good wrestling, but he has tendencies that make me think Cerrone should have success getting him down and racking up top control time. Tony overextends often and has a narrow stance leaving himself open to reactive shots that Cerrone goes for heavily. He also throws teeps and low kicks that can easily be countered (Barboza got him down twice like this) leaving him open for a Frankie Edgar style kneetap TD which is what Cerrone used to get down Lawler. Then comes the second issue of Tony being far too happy off his back, he’s played guard often, doing it against Lee, Thomson, Pettis, Trujillo and others. Against Thomson especially he rocked him badly only to attempt some sort of awkward flying triangle. Cerrone has excellent BJJ and a solid top game, I can easily see him passing Tony’s guard (Lee mounted him) and having success on top enough to win rounds.

As for the striking we’ve seen Tony rocked or dropped how many times now? Pettis made the fight with Tony very competitive by mostly just throwing right hands over and over up the middle. Even guys like Kikuno had very early success doing similar. Johnson, Trujillo and Vannata also notably dropped him. And of course if Tony leaves himself open for it like he did with Vannata, Cerrone has a very quick high kicks from either leg that’ll drop anybody. I know a lot of people support Tony’s unorthodox striking and its certainly entertaining, but poor defence catches up to everyone eventually and Tony’s come close multiple times to getting finished.

Finally in the clinch I think it is quite even although I do favour slightly Cerrone. Both guys have good strikes, and Tony’s elbows are nasty but Cerrone is better positionally with underhooks, collar ties etc. and Cerrone’s slight height advantage will help. I’d think Cerrone likely avoids this, so he doesn’t get cut up as past opponents have vs Tony, although it is an option for him to tie up Tony as he comes in or off of failed or faked TD’s like he did vs Lawler. These faked shots are somewhat risky as Tony has a great front headlock which he will likely try and snatch if Cerrone is too slow.

Overall, I think it’s a fairly even fight, I feel Cerrone is more likely to finish as Tony is more open to being finished grappling and striking. Cerrone getting subbed from guard would be very surprising and, on the feet, Tony is unlikely to rock Cerrone or overwhelm him late as Cerrone has excellent cardio. Overall, I’d favour Tony slightly but would only cap him around -125 putting the value on Cerrone. I'm also interested in Cerrone NSC and Tony Dec lines as these could have a lot of value.

This is actually a good breakdown. Well thought out with some some solid points.

The only think I'd say is that there is a big difference in "how does Cowboy deal with pressure" and "how does Cowboy deal with Tony Ferguson type pressure".

I'm reading here about how Tony doesn't have power, and while I'd agree he probably doesn't have huge one shot KO power, he still hurts almost everyone he fights. He had Tibau rocked early before taking him down and choking him out. Same as Trujillo. Both early, so it wasn't an "accumulation of shots" type thing. He battered Thomson and Lando. Dropped Lee. And if you look at the way he dug to the body vs Pettis and how Cerrone has had issues absorbing body shots, that would be something that would give me huge pause if backing Cowboy.

Tony's 4" reach advantage may come into play as well if he decides to fight long as he did vs RDA.

 

[DevilsAvocado]

You can say that about any fighter in any fight, any fighter can do just about anything.. It doesn't mean it's likely. Bet Cowboy, what do I care?

It's one thing to be a happy mongoloid who proudly dismisses maths. It's another to be aggressive and arrogant. What Steve said is that he finds these outcomes likely. I also disagree and will be huge on ferg, but there's no need for the attitude, just state your arguments in a civil way, you'll gain a lot more from it.

 

[ApplesVild]

It's one thing to be a happy mongoloid who proudly dismisses maths. It's another to be aggressive and arrogant. What Steve said is that he finds these outcomes likely. I also disagree and will be huge on ferg, but there's no need for the attitude, just state your arguments in a civil way, you'll gain a lot more from it.

Give it a rest.

 

[jrleclerc88]

I honestly don't know why I'm responding, but fine.

If I believe in my ability to cap a fight and the probability of an outcome, of course I'd bet it.

Let's say I bet 9 similar fights and have capped them correctly for the probability of the outcomes (I give the dog a 33% chance to win, and they are +350). So in those 9 fights, my underdogs go 3-6. Dammit, I lost twice as many bets as I won! Now I'm poorer! Oh wait....

I bet $100 on each fight. So in winning my 3 bets I profited $1050. In losing my 6 bets I lost $600. So wait...you mean I went 3-6 on my picks but am $450 ahead???? How...can...no...what? Is this possible? What kind of funny math and sorcery are we dealing with here???

I basically bet this way, but to see it broken down like that with numbers is really helpl

I like Rivera alot at the price hes at, think he has a decent chance. I think he will be pushing for his best performance after his last fight.

 

[Soccer Steve]

I basically bet this way, but to see it broken down like that with numbers is really helpl

I like Rivera alot at the price hes at, think he has a decent chance. I think he will be pushing for his best performance after his last fight.

Don't blame you for liking the price but he'll need better than a best performance to beat Yan.

 

[Jordan3399]

Petr Yan should wreck Rivera a lot of the time. If you like Rivera at least wait for his Dec line as thats his almost only path to victory. Its boxer vs boxer except Yan has a better chin, better boxing and a lot more power.

Itw not that Rivera is bad, but this is a very bad match up for him. Not sure how. He wins a dec at all and he doesn't have much finishing ability at all.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

out of sheer curiosity dude how's your bankroll doing?

Im happy

 

[Deleted member 316645]

More than happy to slam Moraes @ -120.

What's Cejudo's path to victory, holding down a big 135er his first time fighting at the weight class?

Moraes has good BJJ, way better standup than Cejudo, and I believe people are putting way too much stock in his wrestling. He barely held down DJ, Tim Elliott was able to mount DJ.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Where is the value in betting someone who's going yo lose?

Im with You on that, this is so funny about this whole value thing but to be devils advocate I favour Donald in this fight. Not because value (LOL on that, fuck value, bet winners) but I think he can win this. Ferg doesnt have ko Power , gets rocked in fights and Im not worried if it goes to The ground because Donald Has legit bjj. Cardio wise Donald is ok too

 

[kevinramsdell]

Oddsmakers finally wising up to the Cerrone bet (unfortunately). I cashed out heavy at +320 against Mike Perry and then at +200 against Hernandez. Didn't put a bet down on him against Al because I really didn't know what was gonna go down but currently Cerrone is sitting at +145 against Ferguson and I'm tempted. Typically odds tend to shrink towards fight night so I don't see anything better happening on a Cerrone bet but I'd be tempted to put a bit on him in this fight.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

I basically bet this way, but to see it broken down like that with numbers is really helpl

I like Rivera alot at the price hes at, think he has a decent chance. I think he will be pushing for his best performance after his last fight.

Riviera will lose , dont bet him lol

 

[joenewbie]

Oddsmakers finally wising up to the Cerrone bet (unfortunately). I cashed out heavy at +320 against Mike Perry and then at +200 against Hernandez. Didn't put a bet down on him against Al because I really didn't know what was gonna go down but currently Cerrone is sitting at +145 against Ferguson and I'm tempted. Typically odds tend to shrink towards fight night so I don't see anything better happening on a Cerrone bet but I'd be tempted to put a bit on him in this fight.

I'm not sure what you mean by "oddsmakers wising up to the Cerrone bet". Do you think it should be a pick 'em fight or Cerrone even being the favorite? If so, then oddsmakers haven't wised up to anything since they had Cerrone at +170.

 

[Deleted member 316645]

I think everyone is overlooking Ferguson because of how impressive Cerrone has been as of recent.

He hasn't fought a monster like Tony, though. I think Tony wins this fight wherever it takes place and absolutely demolishes Cowboy.

Tony beat Pettis 6 months after tearing apart his knee. He'll be even better during this fight.

 

[kevinramsdell]

It means that Cerrone was a 3-1 dog to Mike fucking Perry and a 2-1 dog to Alexander Hernandez both of of whom he destroyed. Not to mention he also just beat the piss out of Iaquinta who hasn’t had a legit loss in years and was a top 5 fighter in the division.

Now oddsmakers are catching on and dropping his numbers down. This fight certainly deserves to be a pick em. Ferguson is a high volume fighter, but Cerrone can push the pace just as long and has excellent BJJ, the fight won’t be decided on the ground anyway. Tony gets caught in every fight he’s in but if he gets caught by a head kick it’s gonna be harder to recover from.

I'm not sure what you mean by "oddsmakers wising up to the Cerrone bet". Do you think it should be a pick 'em fight or Cerrone even being the favorite? If so, then oddsmakers haven't wised up to anything since they had Cerrone at +170.

 

[mkess101]

It means that Cerrone was a 3-1 dog to Mike fucking Perry and a 2-1 dog to Alexander Hernandez both of of whom he destroyed. Not to mention he also just beat the piss out of Iaquinta who hasn’t had a legit loss in years and was a top 5 fighter in the division.

Now oddsmakers are catching on and dropping his numbers down. This fight certainly deserves to be a pick em. Ferguson is a high volume fighter, but Cerrone can push the pace just as long and has excellent BJJ, the fight won’t be decided on the ground anyway. Tony gets caught in every fight he’s in but if he gets caught by a head kick it’s gonna be harder to recover from.

A few things:

Odds actually opened with Tony well over 2-1, he was -230. It's the betting public that's (according to you) "wising up" more than it is the books. And it's not uncommon for the books to at least put SOME stock into fighters who performed well in their last couple fights (although Perry really gift wrapped that win for Cowboy by diving into his guard not once, but twice LOL---really great fight IQ when you have blue belt level bjj at best and you are fighting a guy with elite MMA submissions). But then yeah, two impressive performances against good competition after that.

Second, Cowboy can't push the pace like Ferguson. Not a knock on him, nobody can. Cowboy has a good gas tank, but he conserves energy at times. Did it vs Lawler, Bendo, Matt Brown. Those are just the ones I specifically remember. Probably other times too. Tony never conserves energy, because he doesn't need to. He doesn't get tired, even at a crazy high pace for 25 minutes at elevation. There's a difference between a veteran who has a good gas tank and the fight IQ to mete out his energy efficiently over 3 or 5 rounds (Cowboy) and an ultra high pressure fighter with arguable the GOAT gas tank in the history of the sport (Tony).

Agree about it being unlikely this has much grappling. Maybe Cowboy hits a reactive TD (as @Jordan3399 mentioned) which could steal him a round? But even Pettis, who is an INSANELY underrated grappler (ask Benson Henderson, Chiesa, Charles Oliveira) wanted nothing to do with Tony's guard after being in it for about 30 seconds.

Tony doesn't "get caught" in every fight. At least if you mean he actually gets hurt. He did vs Pettis and Lando. That's it really. Lee knocked him down but that was a balance shot and it was obvious to everyone Tony wasn't hurt (he then dropped Lee seconds later). That said, I agree Tony does not want a repeat of that Lando fight where he gets caught flush with a head kick. You're right in that Cowboy is WAY more capable of finishing if that were to happen.

 

[Naught2Sixty]

If I can add something about Ferg vs Lando. You gotta give Tony a little bit of credit. Lando was a very short notice replacement for...Chiesa I think? Also coming off of training for Khabib that year so two completely different styles trained into him over the past few months. Also the setup to that kick was extremely unorthodox. Who's attempting counter headkicks off of a caught kick? You get your leg caught and your usually expecting to be taken down not having a shin to your dome. That kick kills other dudes 9x out of 10.

 

[mkess101]

If I can add something about Ferg vs Lando. You gotta give Tony a little bit of credit. Lando was a very short notice replacement for...Chiesa I think? Also coming off of training for Khabib that year so two completely different styles trained into him over the past few months. Also the setup to that kick was extremely unorthodox. Who's attempting counter headkicks off of a caught kick? You get your leg caught and your usually expecting to be taken down not having a shin to your dome. That kick kills other dudes 9x out of 10.

For sure. And it's funny that somehow people look at Lando as being some sort of average striker. The reality is that when he's fresh, he's dangerous as hell on the feet. His problem is his gas tank and inability to wisely use energy. That head kick flatlines most guys, yes. Flush, and right behind the ear.

I also think it's funny that people try to act like it's a negative that the couple of times that Tony has been actually hurt, he goes into those summersaults and stuff and is rolling around the cage. It's pretty obvious that he's recovering WHILE he does that crazy stuff. So while most guys get hurt and stay stationary and try to cover up (or just bite down on their mouthguard and blindly wing wild haymakers, praying one lands), Tony makes himself a moving target during the time he's recovering. How many follow up shots did Lando hit him with after that head kick? How many did Pettis land after he clipped him with that overhand?

 

[Naught2Sixty]

Lane change here but...I think theres a decent chance JoJo 2.0 gets Chooked

 

[mkess101]

Lane change here but...I think theres a decent chance JoJo 2.0 gets Chooked

(No tape watched here, this is just going on memory so huge grain of salt).

I wouldn't TOUCH this fight near evens. Jojo has moments of brilliance and times where she looks disinterested. (Honestly, maybe it's an unfair stereotype but I end up feeling that way about a ton of WMMA fighters). Chook...IDK. Would need to watch her fights to remember, and not interested in this fight enough to do it LOL. Maybe someone gets some helium and you can grab a +135 or something on one of them. Otherwise my gut instinct says pass, or just look to bet it live.