UFC Vegas 61: Dern vs. Yan, Sat, October 1

mkess101 said:
You guys are all diving in head first on Jotko? Have fun. I may not bet Allen but I damn sure want no part of a guy who has finished one opponent in the last DECADE. And that lone finish was SIX YEARS ago. Let that sink in: he has one finish, six years ago, in the past decade.

Can Jotko win a decision here? Absolutely. But even if his lone PTV is a solid one, it's still a LONE path to victory. Sure if he was +160 or whatever then hell yes. But as a slight favorite? No way.
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It only matters how likely his path to victory is, not how numerous they are. He's probably winning by decision. If I get plus odds for that I'll be thrilled.
 
B.Goetz said:
It only matters how likely his path to victory is, not how numerous they are. He's probably winning by decision. If I get plus odds for that I'll be thrilled.
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Sure, if thats how you cap it. There are super top heavy grapplers with little finishing ability that I don't mind betting as favorites even in knowing they likely have a singular PTV. Because I'm confident they'll secure TD's and control rounds from top position while being in little danger throughout the fight. But capping a guy who's the worse grappler and has little ability to finish fights standing as a solid favorite because he's won decisions in stand up fights previously seems flawed to me. At least against a guy who sometimes looks very good (and to be fair sometimes not so much).

I can so easily see a round 1 where Allen comes out blazing and wins it with aggression and by backing Jotko up. Then Jotko finds his rhythm and wins rd 2, only to have Allen find a TD in rd 3 and control from top to win the fight.

To each their own. Easy pass pre fight for me.
 
mkess101 said:
Allen hasn't dropped a decision in the UFC. Last one was 4+ years ago vs Fluffy in LFA.

I think 7/10 for Jotko is extremely generous. The more I look, the less I want to do with this fight as a bettor. @Oblivian is right. Allen is too hot and cold, and Jotko only has one PTV. There are bound to be way better spots on the card to bet.
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and the other was eryk anders who jotko beat. look and compare the level of opponents, Soriano, Daukus, and Maulkon are all guys who lack experience, they had less than 10 fights when they fought allen, jotko is beating guys who are ufc veterans Misha, Anders, Gerald, Leites back in the day. his resume for beating top tier by decisions out shines allen. Its not outside the chance for allen to win, but its only if jotko doesn't show up and comes in sick or injured and gives up rounds, i just side with the guy who is more defensively sound.
 
mkess101 said:
Sure, if thats how you cap it. There are super top heavy grapplers with little finishing ability that I don't mind betting as favorites even in knowing they likely have a singular PTV. Because I'm confident they'll secure TD's and control rounds from top position while being in little danger throughout the fight. But capping a guy who's the worse grappler and has little ability to finish fights standing as a solid favorite because he's won decisions in stand up fights previously seems flawed to me. At least against a guy who sometimes looks very good (and to be fair sometimes not so much).

I can so easily see a round 1 where Allen comes out blazing and wins it with aggression and by backing Jotko up. Then Jotko finds his rhythm and wins rd 2, only to have Allen find a TD in rd 3 and control from top to win the fight.

To each their own. Easy pass pre fight for me.
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I don't consider jotko the worst grappler, he is defensively better grappler than Allen.

No difference in saying Chuck is worse than Tito grappling because tito uses grappling offensively but could not take chuck down. Allen might be better offensively, but Jotko knows how to stuff those takedowns better and scramble for top position, rewatch the Gm3 fight if you don't think he can stuff Allen. Allen is a bjj guy too, not some high level wrestler.
 
Stat_Collector said:
I don't consider jotko the worst grappler, he is defensively better grappler than Allen.

No difference in saying Chuck is worse than Tito grappling because tito uses grappling offensively but could not take chuck down. Allen might be better offensively, but Jotko knows how to stuff those takedowns better and scramble for top position, rewatch the Gm3 fight if you don't think he can stuff Allen. Allen is a bjj guy too, not some high level wrestler.
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Allen has better TD's than GM3 by far. I agree he's not some sort of wrestling whiz, but he's far better at taking guys down than someone like Gerald.

But anyway, unlike with Gillian/Agapova where I had $ on Robertson and said if she could get her down she'd show she was levels better with her grappling (which was spot on, I tried to tell ya haha!) this time I'll be happy to be wrong (maybe not "wrong" but at least not convinced on value for Jotko). Because I'm not betting it either way so if most of this forum is on Jotko, I'll be rooting for all of you cash!
 
Daukaus called Dana's cell and whimpered begging for his execution to be delayed, and thus fight is rescheduled for a while from now it won't be this card anymore.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Daukaus called Dana's cell and whimpered begging for his execution to be delayed, and thus fight is rescheduled for a while from now it won't be this card anymore.
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Was a very odd fight for Daukaus to take. He has nice quick hands but he's been brutally KO'D twice in less than a year and he's fighting another guy that has nukes for hands. Maybe he's just starting to realize it.
 
Kamais_Ookin said:
Daukaus called Dana's cell and whimpered begging for his execution to be delayed, and thus fight is rescheduled for a while from now it won't be this card anymore.
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Yeah would have paid juice even on Rozenstruik KO. Tailor made matchup for him.
 
Man....I feel like every time Oleinik fights it's some sort of trap haha. Like, there's no way this old statue doesn't get KO'd. And then half the time he pulls some ridiculous Ezekiel choke out his ass and I'm like "The old fucker did it again..."
 
Joonc said:
I was hoping he would be playable. I capped Ji Liang against tony ferguson the same way and he was -240. -700 is garbage.
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Tony is a known quantity that people would want to bet on though. Nobody outside of hardcores knows who Don Shainis is. He's a very good top grappler, but I doubt he can get Sodiq there.
 
mkess101 said:
Man....I feel like every time Oleinik fights it's some sort of trap haha. Like, there's no way this old statue doesn't get KO'd. And then half the time he pulls some ridiculous Ezekiel choke out his ass and I'm like "The old fucker did it again..."
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Latifi is thick as fuck and has no neck. vanderaa would have beaten oleinik too but showed terrible fight IQ.

I think oleinik's run ends here.
 
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