Werdum is a lock

He's not going to get bullied against the fence like Junior, Kongo, or Rothwell. He will simply fall to his guard if Cain try's to grind against the fence negating Cain's biggest strength. He's deadly off his back so Cain won't want to fight him on the ground.

He has superior reach, greater 1 shot KO power, and better Muay Thai. Most importantly Cain is coming back from a 20 month layoff.

Honestly Werdum is a lock and I'm surprised more people don't see that. I'll bump this after the fight.

Im putting my V Cash on Cain big time
 
Fight will be over by the 3rd round - Cain wins

Yep that's the way I see it also.....Cain will wear him down with constant pressure...and when Werdum runs out of gas (somewhere in the 3rd) Cain will drop the hammer.....
 
Werdum will get destroyed, it wont be even close.. It's sad that Cain again has to prove he's way above everyone else in HW.
 
I'm getting a kick out of how many people are saying "but if he wins it wasn't a lock".

Lol, hedging your bets already? Werdum is winning and he is absolutely a lock.

Saying that someone "is a lock" isn't a statement that is validated by the outcome of the fight; it's a statement validated based on the circumstances preceding the bout itself. Ie - we can say you're being an idiot now and be right regardless of what happens on Saturday. Simply put - because you haven't seemed to grasp this already - given the two combatants and the circumstances surrounding the fight, it is incredibly unwise to call this fight a lock, and any reasoning used to justify that is suspect.
 
I'm getting a kick out of how many people are saying "but if he wins it wasn't a lock".

Lol, hedging your bets already? Werdum is winning and he is absolutely a lock.

Sure just ask the guys that were saying JDS was a lock the second time him and Cain fought. Which to me actually makes more sense because Junior had already knocked him out once. We all know what happened there and the third fight. You can say any fights a lock but you dont and will never know the condition of the fighters going in nor their mentality.
 
He's not going to get bullied against the fence like Junior, Kongo, or Rothwell. He will simply fall to his guard if Cain try's to grind against the fence negating Cain's biggest strength. He's deadly off his back so Cain won't want to fight him on the ground.

He has superior reach, greater 1 shot KO power, and better Muay Thai. Most importantly Cain is coming back from a 20 month layoff.

Honestly Werdum is a lock and I'm surprised more people don't see that. I'll bump this after the fight.
I suggest you place your life savings on Werdum then cause he's around +450. Cain is better than him everywhere but off his back (where he will not be in this fight).
 
I think +400 is a bit much, but a lock?! Preposterone
 
Werdum has the skills to beat any HW. That said, Cain is probably going to beat his ass until he gasses then Cain will TKO him.
 
He's not going to get bullied against the fence like Junior, Kongo, or Rothwell. He will simply fall to his guard if Cain try's to grind against the fence negating Cain's biggest strength. He's deadly off his back so Cain won't want to fight him on the ground.

He has superior reach, greater 1 shot KO power, and better Muay Thai. Most importantly Cain is coming back from a 20 month layoff.

Honestly Werdum is a lock and I'm surprised more people don't see that. I'll bump this after the fight.

huh?
 
I'm getting a kick out of how many people are saying "but if he wins it wasn't a lock".

Lol, hedging your bets already? Werdum is winning and he is absolutely a lock.

So how big a bet are you making? You can almost quadruple your money if he wins, and if there is a 100% chance of that, you should be betting literally all the money you have and can raise on it.
 
Your analysis sounds like it's based on MMA from ten years ago when guys could dominate opponents in their guard and such. In modern MMA, guys like Travis Browne and Mark Hunt can survive with Werdum on the ground.
 
Dropping to guard worked well for him against Overeem didn't it? If he does that he will only gas himself out and then will be in real trouble. He needs to keep the fight standing and maintain distance, which will be hard to do considering Cain's pressure, but it's possible he can catch Cain with something. If the fight does go to the ground, expect Cain to transition immediately to half guard or get up; that is until later in the fight where Cain will unleash fury . Although Werdum is a legitimate threat, I don't see him winning the fight. At heavyweight, Cain's not so secret weapon is his cardio, which seems to be Werdum's weakness.
 
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BTW, I will be betting on Werdum. The odds seem very strange to me. The way I look at it, you have two kinds of uncertainty when you make a pick: Outcome uncertainty (think GSP vs. Serra--we were all pretty sure that GSP was better and would win a vast majority of them time they fought but shit happens) and analysis uncertainty (think Brock vs. Overeem--we were pretty sure that one of them was a lot more likely to win than the other, but we didn't really know which one until they fought--this also applies to guys you know nothing about).

I think Cain's layoff, the fact that the fight is in a foreign country (just a hunch) and especially the elevation add a lot of analysis uncertainty. So I'm saying that those things kind of randomize the results more than they usually would be, or at least make it unusually difficult to predict (because Cain could come in really flat relative to his previous performances, for example). That means I think the odds should be pulled more toward even.

And even if we knew that both guys would be exactly like they've been in their last few fights, I don't see it as *that* much of a sure thing (where Werdum has only an 18% chance of winning).

At heavyweight, Cain's not so secret weapon is his cardio, which seems to be Werdum's weakness.

What if that fails him at the extreme altitude? That's one of my fears (as a Cain fan, though I like Werdum a lot, too).
 
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