UFN 122 - Silva vs Gastelum - China

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Bisping insnt a big middle weight SO I dont care about się. Gastelum wins this
 
Way too many red flags around Bisping IMO

-got knocked down, hellbowed and choked unconscious 3 weeks ago
-apparently got injured in the last day of camp
-taking the fight to get over his loss to GSP
 
Way too many red flags around Bisping IMO

-got knocked down, hellbowed and choked unconscious 3 weeks ago
-apparently got injured in the last day of camp
-taking the fight to get over his loss to GSP

-38 years old
-on the verge of retirement
-was in the process of drinking away his sorrows when he got the call
 
I am not sure why but i can`t lay the juice on Gastelum. Bisping is tough and i think he can surprise when you least expect like in the Rockhold fight.
I puted 1.5u at the over already.
 
I just finished watching some tape on Wang Guan, the line between him and Alex Caceres is about right.

Wang Guan, pretty good striker, good gnp and he has heart and will fight for your money, really padded record, he is going
to have a lot of problems with anybody with a strong wrestling based attack which Caceres isn't fortunately. Even though Caceres is a gatekeeper at this point in his career, he is still a big step up in competition for Wang Guan. If Wang Guan doesn't knock him out, I could see Caceres winning a decision on the scorecards. If I was to bet Wang Guan, I wouldn't go crazy on the units or amount I would bet on him, probably keep it small.

Really curious to see how training at ATT will improve his overall game.

Just finished tape as well and agree with most of your points. I think the line should probably be a bit tighter tho, especially in China. On the feet this should be very competetive, cacaeres more varied in his attacks, wang with the power advantage and most likely forward pressure. His tdd leaves some to be desired but don't see that being a big issue here and his sub defense has looked pretty decent. To be fair he was fighting some decent wrestlers (magomedov - Dagestani beast and Sakerov - Russian tank) and was still able to push off the hips and explode up. I expect his tdd and overall game to show some improvements after spending camp at ATT. I see this mainly playing out on the feet where Wang will absolutely have opportunities as Bruce Leroy is hittable in exchanges. At +155 I think Wang is the right side.
 
Salikhov's striking is elite. Wrestling may be an issue but he has an arm triangle win over a 0-1 fighter so he's an #elite complete mma fighter and I'm playing him
 
Gastelum has a rock solid chin, speed advantage, power advantage, youth, and all intangibles except size. I was fine with putting 5u on the -230 opener.
 
Early tape watch on Ottow. Got a gift decision vs kunimoto

Throws naked kicks

Throws kicks in a fight where he knows the other guy is looking for takedowns.

Continues to throw kicks after being taken down because of said kicks

Indicates low fight iq

He’s a tough guy. Strong. Decent striking and power. Flat footed and fights in a straight line. Stalks the other fighter. Jiu jitsu looks serviceable.

I was already on leech just confirming my lean here. Looking at his record he has trouble with guys who can wrestle

Back to the tape
 
Early tape watch on Ottow. Got a gift decision vs kunimoto

Throws naked kicks

Throws kicks in a fight where he knows the other guy is looking for takedowns.

Continues to throw kicks after being taken down because of said kicks

Indicates low fight iq

He’s a tough guy. Strong. Decent striking and power. Flat footed and fights in a straight line. Stalks the other fighter. Jiu jitsu looks serviceable.

I was already on leech just confirming my lean here. Looking at his record he has trouble with guys who can wrestle

Back to the tape

FWIW Ottow's main background is in BJJ, started showcasing his striking more recently. Thought the Kunimoto fight was a pretty clean 29-28 for him as well.
 
I'm not liking any of the favs here besides Gastelum.
 
lol @ some of these undercard fighters

Yaozong Hu - the combined record of his opponents is 1-6. can't find any other background as far as kickboxing or grappling goes

Wuliji Buren - recently got choked out by a 1-time fighter only named "Yuri"

Really hype to see Zabit fight again though, and main card should be entertaining. Might be rough to find good plays when the full lines come out though
 
FWIW Ottow's main background is in BJJ, started showcasing his striking more recently. Thought the Kunimoto fight was a pretty clean 29-28 for him as well.
Yea he did a good job of taking the back and getting his hooks in. Pretty good rnc
 
How do you see Bisping winning this? I'm looking for reasons to play him here but I'm just not finding any. The only argument I've seen so far is that Bisping is bigger.

I won't be playing Gastelum's ML at this price either, fwiw.
I think bisping has some advantages that are not quantifiable on paper so much these might sound 'lame' but experience i think could play a factor here. Kelvin is a ww who ate his way out of the division do we trust him to make the proper preparations fighting in china main event with jet lag etc with short notice different opponent...also lets not forget kelvin lost to a MW that almost everyone in the forum considers shot. And are still looking to fade him in the future..also bisping seems to thrive on the underdog role.. I think he can implement a stick n move strategy to a UD or maybe split dec and lastly his price hes almost +300
All in all i give bisping advantages in
- size
- experience
- toughness
- cardio
I simply cannot trust the overweight WW at -3××
I cap this around kelvin -160 ish
 
Really want to do Gastelum ITD. But every time I go for an ITD or under I lose.

Didn't want to admit that I did a last minute u4 bet for Werdum-Tybura with half my winnings from the event, but yeah I did
 
Passing Gastelum ITD -161 for now, hope KO line is better. Did take a bit of Garcia dec +505, as I see him getting his wrestling going or getting put to sleep.

Edit - Could actually see Gastelum dropping and subbing him like GSP, KO line might be getting greedy.
 
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