UFN 123 - Swanson vs Ortega - Fresno, CA

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I'm normally not much of an over/under guy, but I'm REALLY feeling under on Knight/Benitez

First, Benitez has terrible takedown defense and gives up his back regularly, so this fight has quick Knight submission written all over it. But even if that doesn't happen, both guys have hittable faces, crackable chins, and a bit of pop to their strikes. Throw in Benitez guillotine, and there are all sorts of ways for this to end early. Really would be surprised if it goes the distance.

Doesn't go distance is 1 of my biggest bets of the night. And I don't usually go large on over unders
Yep. One of my main plays is that fight not going the distance. Got the opener on BM at -110. Still a lot of value on it. I think it should be at least -200. Probably ends ITD at least 70% of the time
 
Markus Perez up to +375 in some places? Makes no sense to me. Anders should be no higher than -200
 
Sanders-soukhamthath - I like Souk NSC around +200, he throws kill shots and has never been finished, Sanders has had trouble putting guys away after hurting them

Why do you say that? Sanders has only gone to decision 3 times so far in his career and finished his debut. Iuri is just tough, he's never been knocked out and only been finished twice in 44 fights. Souk hasn't been finished yet but Sanders will easily be the toughest opponent he's faced. Sanders handles him easily imo
 
anyone playing neto/giles?
Was considering playing Neto, not based on tape study or anything, purely because there's usually a dog or two nobody itt considers that comes through and wins. ie Janes last week. So prob Neto, Gruetz, or de Tomas tonight.
 
Why do you say that? Sanders has only gone to decision 3 times so far in his career and finished his debut. Iuri is just tough, he's never been knocked out and only been finished twice in 44 fights. Souk hasn't been finished yet but Sanders will easily be the toughest opponent he's faced. Sanders handles him easily imo

Been a while since I watched it but in one of his pre UFC fights he hurt his opponent a couple times but couldn't put him away
 
I'm on Benito. Longer, more athletic, smarter, better technique. His weakness is meh wrestling which Morales is not ideal to exploit.

Of course Benito is unproven in certain ways, but for tiny juice it's worth gambling on the clearly superior talent who has been training as a fighter for longer. Morales isn't good and can easily get cut from the UFC in the near future.

Why are people acting like Benito has been fighting longer just because he said he started when he was 12 lol

Morales has been boxing since he was a kid too (source: I know him and the guy who taught him)
 
Was considering playing Neto, not based on tape study or anything, purely because there's usually a dog or two nobody itt considers that comes through and wins. ie Janes last week. So prob Neto, Gruetz, or de Tomas tonight.

If you want to go for Neto get his ITD line, because how would he ever win a decision.
on bet365 his ML is 3.25, while his ITD line is 5.50

btw I give Alejandro Perez and Horcher a better chance than the 3 guys you mentioned

IMO Gruetz is the most unlikely fighter to win at UFN 123 (in before he knocks Ramos out in the first round haha)

Davis, Saenz, Sterling,.. was there even an unanimous agreement on any dog? I can't remember. Davis maybe?
 
Davis, Saenz, Sterling,.. was there even an unanimous agreement on any dog? I can't remember. Davis maybe?

Oddly it seems like 80%+ here are on Carmouche. I feel good about throwing money on Davis
 
@Jamah i cant bless you with a dog that no one is talking about today. havent researched
 
I'm normally not much of an over/under guy, but I'm REALLY feeling under on Knight/Benitez

First, Benitez has terrible takedown defense and gives up his back regularly, so this fight has quick Knight submission written all over it. But even if that doesn't happen, both guys have hittable faces, crackable chins, and a bit of pop to their strikes. Throw in Benitez guillotine, and there are all sorts of ways for this to end early. Really would be surprised if it goes the distance.
Ive got fight to end in sub at +210 for these exact reasons
 
For those wondering, I will not be providing free picks for the card tonight. Can't jip my subscribers by constantly giving free money to non-subscribers.

Also, PLEASE I need my Alabamians to vote Doug Jones. I hate getting political, but we as Americans must #resist. Our country is being run by a lunatic out of a looney toons cartoon.

- Barry
 
For those wondering, I will not be providing free picks for the card tonight. Can't jip my subscribers by constantly giving free money to non-subscribers.

Also, PLEASE I need my Alabamians to vote Doug Jones. I hate getting political, but we as Americans must #resist. Our country is being run by a lunatic out of a looney toons cartoon.

- Barry

Is this a gimmick or something?
 
For those wondering, I will not be providing free picks for the card tonight. Can't jip my subscribers by constantly giving free money to non-subscribers.

Also, PLEASE I need my Alabamians to vote Doug Jones. I hate getting political, but we as Americans must #resist. Our country is being run by a lunatic out of a looney toons cartoon.

- Barry

you never break character, i'll give you that.
 
For those wondering, I will not be providing free picks for the card tonight. Can't jip my subscribers by constantly giving free money to non-subscribers.

Also, PLEASE I need my Alabamians to vote Doug Jones. I hate getting political, but we as Americans must #resist. Our country is being run by a lunatic out of a looney toons cartoon.

- Barry
Very dissapointing news this is, been anxiously waiting all week the barry free pick. Guess I will have to subscribe then
 
Bought out of most of my Hotzman bet. Just not feeling it

i still think he's the side, but i hedged a lil just now, too. still a solid bet for me, tho.
 
ok, i know i said this last week on piccolotti. (tho i thought he freakin won rd 2 and 3 but whatever).

alcantara is the better striker, wrestler, and bjj'er. yes, he's wildly inconsistent but he has every freakin advantage here besides age? lol. -175 i'm taking it, f it. 1.75u
 
Yeah i definitely can see alcantara winning this easily, his opponent is a weasel who likes to sneak in those decisions tho but im still confident in alcantara

anyone think that fight doesnt go distance -130 for giles/neto is a good bet? fight going distance is -110 but i can see giles stopping neto or neto pulling off a sub
 
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