UFC FOX 26 - RDA vs Lawler - Winnipeg

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Gugabe said:
Where do you sell your picks? I've never seen anything resembling a record off you, aside from that time you put like 20u on GSP ML.
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Its a high end service, invitation only
 
I don't see the Jan love personally. He is at a big disadvantage on the feet and yeah there is a possible wrestling threat but i don't think Jan can wrestle over three rounds with his horrid cardio. He also likes fighting in Europe this will be his third trip to north America where he is 0-2 and has gassed horribly on both trips. Also, are the refs going to be under instruction like last week to basically stand fighters up instantly?! Really like Cannon's line.
 
I think Blachowicz got himself in great shape for the home town fight and he could also still be carrying a lot of motivation and momentum from that win. It was only two months ago.
 
Yotsuya said:
I think Blachowicz got himself in great shape for the home town fight and he could also still be carrying a lot of motivation and momentum from that win. It was only two months ago.
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Jan's predisposed to gassing he's just one of them fighters like Skelly and Sanchez who will always gas. The Devin fight was pretty low volume not a great deal happened. He's also had a nice flight to Canada to deal with this time rather than fighting in his backyard. Jan's only path is by wrestling and if Cannon can stuff or standup he's going to make Jan have to work and he's going to gas. Devin kept Jan on the back foot for the whole fight good luck backing up against Cannon.
 
Sham5916910 said:
Jan's predisposed to gassing he's just one of them fighters like Skelly and Sanchez who will always gas. The Devin fight was pretty low volume not a great deal happened. He's also had a nice flight to Canada to deal with this time rather than fighting in his backyard. Jan's only path is by wrestling and if Cannon can stuff or standup he's going to make Jan have to work and he's going to gas. Devin kept Jan on the back foot for the whole fight good luck backing up against Cannon.
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I have to watch that again. I just remember, that everyone expected Devin to take over in second round, and it went the other way around. Stats indicate a very low output fight for sure.
 
Yotsuya said:
I have to watch that again. I just remember, that everyone expected Devin to take over in second round, and it went the other way around. Stats indicate a very low output fight for sure.
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Yeah Jan looked ok cardio wise but it just wasn't a taxing fight. I wouldn't say Jan took over either he just caught a weird arse standing rnc when Devin shot in.
 
Rapidryan88 said:
Laprise O1.5 at 1.8 with marathon bet is significantly higher than any other euro book (all around 1.5-1.58) may have a go at that. Hopefully laprise plays it smart
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Yeah there's a reason why the overs at Marathonbet are priced better than anywhere else. It's because they only count completed rounds so O1.5 really means O2.0, O2.5 really means FGTD (in a 3 round fight) and so on.

I found this out the hard way the other week lol http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-218-pbp-discussion.3668675/page-57
 
I bet the GT Misha over the other day and someone then pointed this out to me re Marathonbet. Dogs!
 
Zee's MMA Subscriber said:
Makdessi +180 is an elite bet, line should be flipped

34 year old Trujillo is devolving, he's no longer the super aggressive wrestler/brawler, now he's far more passive and he's lost his killer instinct. All the guy talks about is going vegan and how it's benefited his so much but I don't see it. His cardio still sucks, he's only got one good round in him and after that he slows down and breaks mentally, like always.

Trujillo has fought some high level fighters in the UFC but he couldn't beat them, his only wins in the UFC are over low level competition, no one even worth mentioning.

Makdessi got wheel kicked last December, it was the first KO loss of his career even though he didn't go out completely. Makdessi also has a TKO loss to Cerrone but that has due to a broken jaw.

Makdessi has been at Rofus Sport for the last few months and he seems like he's in a good place mentally. I really like that camp and they're getting good results lately. Plenty of high level fighters around Makdessi's weight and it's a striking based gym.

Makdessi is a much better technical striker than Trujillo. Makessi is faster, more techniques, higher output, good head movement. Trujillo just loads up and throw telegraphed shots, Makdessi will slip that garbage. Trujillo has a punchers chance but not a great one, his power is overrated, only 5 KO/TKO wins

Against Trujillo, Makdessi won't be at height disadvantage and he's only at a 2 inch reach disadvantage which is insignificant. Usually Makdessi is at a significant height and reach disadvantage

Goodluck trying to wrestle Makdessi too, he's shown very solid TDD 87%, only been taken down 4 times in his UFC career. Trujillo might be able to get an early TD but he'll just tire himself out trying.

I love that this fight is in Canada, you know the Canadian judges support their countrymen. Trujillo usually has a good 1st round but after that he slows down. Makdessi has the much better conditioning and likes to pick the pace up as the fight progresses. Makdessi's striking, cardio and higher output will get him the win here and most likely by decision.

Makdessi is 13-2 in Canada
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Zee's, we agree again man! I finished tape on this and agree lines should be flipped. I have a total of 3u on Mak ml and dec....dec line of +415 is best value prop I have seen in a loooonnng time. Most likely outcome imo.

Abel struggles with technical strikers and Mak will be the most technical striker he has faced, by far. Varner was absolutely giving him the business before engaging in rock em sock em battle after rocking abel. Sims was winning the exchanges before diving into a guillotine. Abel will try to wrestle but Mak's footwork, tdd and get-ups will make that a failed path or make Abel gas faster than normal. Mak's tdd and footwork looked great vs a better wrestler/grappler in alan patrick. I see abel getting frustrated on the feet and start headhunting like he has been known to do, making it even easier for Mak to counter. Stick and move clinic for 3 rounds is how I see this playing out. Mak is this card's Benetiz.
 
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Why the over 1.5 rounds in the Bamgbose - Di Chirico fight is at +145?
What am I missing?
 
NinjaCat456 said:
Yeah there's a reason why the overs at Marathonbet are priced better than anywhere else. It's because they only count completed rounds so O1.5 really means O2.0, O2.5 really means FGTD (in a 3 round fight) and so on.

I found this out the hard way the other week lol http://forums.sherdog.com/threads/ufc-218-pbp-discussion.3668675/page-57
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this isn't right. if over 2.5 means 3 completed rds, what does under 2.5 rds mean? less than 2 rds completed? because under 2.5 cannot mean under 3 completed rds coz that just doesn't make sense. you would win any dispute on this if they tried not to pay. the bookie cant win all bets that finish in a whole rd. i had to explain all this to a noob at betfred when he tried this stunt on me. the juice on the over under in the lamas fight at marathon bet is 5%. now if they had a whole rd to win our money you would see fights with + money on both sides of the line and they could still make a profit. o2.5 at marathon bet has to be the same as all other bookies. any errors on grading this can just be corrected as its just a noob grading who doesn't understand and is used to grading football goals totals
 
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Jamah said:
Why the over 1.5 rounds in the Bamgbose - Di Chirico fight is at +145?
What am I missing?
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Bamgbose has only been over 1.5 rounds once in his career when Mutante used a wrestling heavy game plan.
 
vkram said:
Bamgbose has only been over 1.5 rounds once in his career when Mutante used a wrestling heavy game plan.
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True, but to bet the under you might as well bet Bangbus KO or R1 instead. Di Chirco hasn't shown shit for finishing ability. iirc Mclellan was gassed to shit and he hung in.
 
vkram said:
Bamgbose has only been over 1.5 rounds once in his career when Mutante used a wrestling heavy game plan.
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Because he was finishing fighters with negative records in the 1st round before coming into the UFC.
 
I'm playing Blach as a Cannonier-fade, as I feel the dude's been a tad overrated in the rush to crown random LHWs as being the next big thing.
 
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