2017 Recap & Analytics

Great year for me, was able to by a nice car and remodel my kitchen with betting money, sadly things will propably get harder 2018 as these euro bookies keep limiting me giving me less options to work with
 
Honestly I have't bet that much this year. I bet up until early February and then stopped because it distracted me from studying way too much and I had my final exams coming up in the summer. I also found that I tend to enjoy watching fights more if I don't have anything riding on them, much more relaxing and fun for me.

I still browse the forum daily and love reading different opinions. I actually think that this is the best place to discuss MMA since everyone is so knowledgeable.

Also, I still play Pick 'Em and one somewhat interesting thing I found is that favourites won roughly 68% of the time, since thats around my pick rate and I mostly pick favourites with a few exceptions.

Looking forward to discussing MMA and breaking down fights with you guys!
 
Start: UFC Fight Night 115 - Volkov vs. Struve
End: UFC 219 - Cyborg vs. Holm

2017: +13,12un

Top 3 Profit Events
UFC 216 - Ferguson vs. Lee (Ferguson ITD, Draw Dariush x Dunham, DJ ITD, Moraga)
UFC 217 - Bisping vs. St. Pierre (TJ, Rose x Joanna Under Rounds, Wonderboy DEC, Borrachinha ITD, James Vick, OSP TKO, Randy Brown)
UFC 218 - Holloway vs. Aldo 2 (Holloway ITD, Cejudo DEC, Alvarez, Tecia Torres, Yancy Medeiros)

Top 3 Worst Events
UFC 215 - Nunes vs. Shevchenko 2 (Shevchenko, Cejudo DEC, Adriano Martins, Latifi TKO)
UFC Fight Night 119 - Brunson vs. Machida (Machida, Maia, Hacran Dias, Niko Price, Rob Font)
UFC Fight Night 120 - Poirier vs. Pettis (Poirier x Pettis Rounds, Brown x Sanchez Over Rounds, Clay Guida DEC, John Dodson)

Biggest Win
Bet on the draw even in the second round, when Evan Dunham began to grow in the fight against Beneil Dariush.

Biggest Loss
Stay betting on a win by knockout of Valentina Shevchenko against Amanda Nunes during the fight. I bet on her every round and at the end for a decision win. I lost good units there.
 
2017 Recap

Total Units: +186.59 (689 fights)

event summary:

LFA 1: +100
Invicta 21: +308.50
UFN 103: +18
LFA 2: -185
Bella 170: +479.45
Titan 43: +149.50
Bella 171: -105
UFC FOX 23: -540.96
UFN 104: -601.98
UFC 208: -413.97
LFA 4: +94
Bella 172: +295
UFN 105: +1,412.36
LFA 5: +225
Bella 173: +102
Bella 174: -200
UFC 209: +409.81
UFN 106: +1,521.58
UFN 107: +1,051.81
WSOF 35: -462.50
invicta 22: -2.57
Bella 175: -107.86
Bella 176: +325
UFC 210: +35.49
Bella 177: +352
UFC Fox 24: -740.23
Rizin 5: +140
LFA 10: -20
Bella 178: +263.75
UFN 108: +2,602.44
CES 44: +70
UFC 211: +1,464.96
Bella 179: -153.50
Titan 44: +50
Invicta 23: +89.50
KSW 39: 0
UFN 109: +1,376.41
UFC 212: -672.76 <----- summer slump hit again
UFN 110: -1,243.94
UFN 111: -805.78
Bella 180: +509.67
UFN 112: -856.70
LFA 15: -47.52 <----- summer slump ended (net of -3,117.03)
PFL 1: +351.48
TUF 25: -88.84
UFC 213: +176.14
DW1: +340
bella 181: +265.20
invicta 24: +92.50
ufn 113: +1,122.83
DW2: +248.01
UFC Fox 25: +1,808.50
DW3: +51.39
PFL 2: +2
UFC 214: +1,792.65
Rizin 6: -20
DW4: +113.50
LFA 18: -95.50
UFN 114: -1,105.65
DW 5: -125.90
DW 6: +466.32
Titan 45: -60
LFA 19: -205
DW 7: +469.94
Bella 182: +688.75
LFA 20: +102.50
DW 8: +350.75
Invicta 25: -63.75
UFN 115: +312.60
LFA 22: +237.50,
UFC 215: -169.46
UFN 116: -609.57
UFN 117: +97.95
LFA 23: -70
ACB 70: +99
Bella 183: +490.08
Bella 184: +118.34
UFC 216: +78.02
LFA 24: -92
Bella 185: -224
LFA 25: -70
UFN 118: +548.08
UFN 119: +619.06
PFL 3: -357.50
Bella 186: -304.60
UFC 217: +3,242.15 <----- best event of 2017
Bella 187: -50
UFN 120: +455.75
Bella 188: +90
Titan 46: +115
UFN 121: -2,108.75 <----- worst event of 2017 (man i get killed on aussie cards)
UFN 122: -561.84
Bella 189: -333
TUF 26: +1,009.84
UFC 218: +870.23
Invicta 26: +347.50
Bella 190: +194.50
UFN 123: +428.23
Bella 191: +78
UFC Fox 26: +382.65
Rizin 8: -31.67
UFC 219: +863.35

-------------

By Promotion:
UFC: +150.94 units (525 fights)
Bellator: +27.94 units (87 fights)
Japanese MMA (Rizin): +0.88 units (5 fights)
Invicta: +7.72 units (21 fights)
WSOF/PFL: -4.67 units (16 fights)
Titan: +2.55 units (7 fights)
Others: +1.23 units (28 fights)

-------------

By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. grey area #2: my longshot event props fall under +401 and up dog slot

FAVORITES: +91.62 units (269 fights)
UNDERDOGS: +94.97 units (420 fights)

---
-101 to -200 favorites: +52.35 units (157 fights)
-201 to -400 favorites: +33.97 units (85 fights)
-401 & up favorites: +5.31 units (27 fights)

dogs up to +200: +93.09 units (232 fights)
+201 to +400 dogs: +3.46 units (107 fights)
+401 and up dogs: -1.58 units (81 fights)

-------------

By Weightclass (and event-wide):

Women: ((( +62.91 units total )))
145: +1.27 units
135: +10.33 units
125: +11.06 units
115: +40.55 units
105: -0.31 units

men: ((( +127.09 units total )))
265: +6.73 units
205: +20.54 units
185: +5.38 units
170: +22.04 units
155: +14.80 units
145: +16.36 units
135: +39.28 units
125: +1.96 units

---

event-wide props: ((( -3.40 units total )))

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -0.90 units

Fastest KO/SUB: -1.25 units

OVER decisions: +0.37 units
UNDER decisions: -0.40 units
OVER KO/SUBS: +0.58 units
UNDER KO/SUBS: -0.21 units

Draws: -1.6 units

-------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +145.64 units
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +40.96 units

-------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-5u or worse):
7/22/17: -543.50: bermudez vs elkins
2/20/17: -582.00: marshman vs santos <-- 9 seconds from profit, too
11/11/17: -643.45: lauzon vs guida


huge wins (+5.99u or better... too many wins of 4-5.98u to list)

6/24/17: +599.00: douglas lima vs larkin
4/22/17: +602.55: wineland vs dodson (via O2.5 and dodson dec)
10/28/17: +641.00: munhoz vs font
6/3/17: +648.50: holloway vs aldo
8/22/17: +707.95: nzechukwu vs berzin <-- lol how'd i win so much here
12/9/17: +719.50: saenz vs dvalishvili
7/7/17: +721.00: gaethje vs johnson
5/28/17: +797.90: velickovic vs musoke
9/22/17: +885.05: andrade vs gadelha
7/22/17: +897.50: zaleski vs good
5/28/17: +916.70: akhmedov vs al hassan
11/4/17: +1,224.27: dillashaw vs garbrandt
4/22/17: +1,323.75: moreno vs ortiz
11/4/17: +1,328.93: namajunas vs jedrzejczyk
7/29/17: +1,445.48: ortega vs moicano
2/20/17: +1,786.50: markos vs esparza

-------------

my key takeaways:
-WOW. almost a 50/50 split on profits from favorites and dogs for me. 2016 was all about dogs. interesting.
-event props continue to bleed some profit again this year
-wmma got WAY better for me (largely cause of namajunas and andrade wins)

2017: +187u
2016: +113u
2015: +175u
2014: +125u
2013: +115u
2012: +137u
2011: +97u
2010: +94u


i'm finally raising my units for the first time in a few years. long overdue, i know. 100/unit is now 150/unit.
Bro your the p4p champ! We should call you mighty mouse
 
This is my first year capping and think I've done a ok job. I love marital art and have previous years betting just to spice the exciement up a bit on fighters that I like/don' like.
I've tested some different ways of capping during this year and done so many wrongs along the way but I've also learned a lot from those wrongs (hopefully)
I'm going in to a new year of capping and leaving my rookie season behind me and hoping to improve my results.

http://www.betmma.tips/Philosopher
Here is most of my capping this year If anyone have some spare minutes to eye through it and give me some critique both good and bad it would be appreciated.
Happy New year
 
After many years of betting on MMA and lurking on sherdog, I finally decided to start posting my bets here. Next year I'll intend to be a more active contributor on the forum instead of just posting my bets. I posted my first bets here on 10/29/17 and these are the results so far:

UFC FN 119 +7.22u
UFC 217 +12.115u
UFC FN 120 +12.304u
UFC FN 121 -6.01u
UFC FN 122 +4.585u
UFC 218 -1.585u
UFC FN 123 +3.667u
Titan FC 47 +0.423u
UFC on FOX 26 +9.532u
UFC 219 +11.774u

Total profit: +54.025u

These are only the pre-event bets that I posted in the bet-threads. Bets after the event started or live-bets are not included.

A big thank you to everybody contributing on the betting section of the forum and a happy new year to all of you!
 
+162u on mma this year. Lost a ton on lb tennis.
Sticking to mma, soccer and basketball only, from now.
 
+162u on mma this year. Lost a ton on lb tennis.
Sticking to mma, soccer and basketball only, from now.
Live betting tennis is nuts from my experience very -EV

This is my first year capping and think I've done a ok job. I love marital art and have previous years betting just to spice the exciement up a bit on fighters that I like/don' like.
I've tested some different ways of capping during this year and done so many wrongs along the way but I've also learned a lot from those wrongs (hopefully)
I'm going in to a new year of capping and leaving my rookie season behind me and hoping to improve my results.

http://www.betmma.tips/Philosopher
Here is most of my capping this year If anyone have some spare minutes to eye through it and give me some critique both good and bad it would be appreciated.
Happy New year

Nice bud looks good. I’m a few spots behind you there keep up the good capping!
 
Guys something just came to my mind, might well be that it's lame and stupid, so please give me your thoughts about it.

I will try to succeed with a gigantic 'parlay' in 2018:

At the next event (Stephens vs Choi) I will put 1unit on the ML that I am most confident in, totally ignoring the odds.
In case of me winning, I will put that 1unit + the winnings all on the ML that I am most confident in for the following event.
And so on, and so on. I am sure you get the idea already.

I would call this the 'L-Challenge'.
What does the L stand for?
It's obvious isn't it - on one hand it will stand for 'Lock', on the other hand it will stand for 'Luca' (since I will probably end up on heavily favorited fighters most of the time).
Could also be that I am done after 2 events already, who knows.

Would anybody be interested in joining me with this?
I could make an own thread for it, and it would be kind of a tournament.

The winner would be the guy who survives the longest.
This year there have been around 40 UFC events, I doubt that anybody will be able to last that long.
In case that the two last man standing last for the same event, the one with the higher stack wins.

On top of my head the rules would be:
-you have to make your choice for every event, if you skip one you are out!
-you have to be on board for the first event of the year already, joining later won't be possible!
-you are only allowed to bet a ML, no props!
-you are not out if the fight ends in a draw or a no contest

There would be no prize pool, it would just be for glory and honor and fun, so you could theoretically also join if you don't bet the whole thing for real (although that makes it less interesting, I feel).
You don't have to make screencaps for your actual bet or so.

Sounds fun? Sounds stupid? Please gimme your feedback.
This literally came to my mind a few minutes ago, so I might be totally off about it. But in my head it sounds like a fun community thing to do.
I will personally do this anyway, the only question is if others are interested in it as well.

Thank you for your attention for now :cool:
 
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I used to meticulously track my bets. And lost in the long term.

I stopped tracking and suddenly started to win. Odd... But I've worked myself slowly, surely out of the red and finally hit black this fall.

Like piglord, some of the others, I spread myself over too many sports: hockey, soccer, tennis, american sports. And some I know nothing about. I am quite certain had I left those sports alone and stuck to MMA only I'd be much more profitable than I currently am.

In 2018 I will restart my tracking methods for MMA/fighting and tweak my approach. Discipline and not giving in to free dopamine hits are key...

This was useful...just to get it out of my brain and into words. Cathartic-ish. Thanks for reading.


And I would like to thank this community and hard work many of you do and share. Your knowledge is immensely useful. Happy new year.
 
2017 Recap

Total Units: +186.59 (689 fights)

event summary:

LFA 1: +100
Invicta 21: +308.50
UFN 103: +18
LFA 2: -185
Bella 170: +479.45
Titan 43: +149.50
Bella 171: -105
UFC FOX 23: -540.96
UFN 104: -601.98
UFC 208: -413.97
LFA 4: +94
Bella 172: +295
UFN 105: +1,412.36
LFA 5: +225
Bella 173: +102
Bella 174: -200
UFC 209: +409.81
UFN 106: +1,521.58
UFN 107: +1,051.81
WSOF 35: -462.50
invicta 22: -2.57
Bella 175: -107.86
Bella 176: +325
UFC 210: +35.49
Bella 177: +352
UFC Fox 24: -740.23
Rizin 5: +140
LFA 10: -20
Bella 178: +263.75
UFN 108: +2,602.44
CES 44: +70
UFC 211: +1,464.96
Bella 179: -153.50
Titan 44: +50
Invicta 23: +89.50
KSW 39: 0
UFN 109: +1,376.41
UFC 212: -672.76 <----- summer slump hit again
UFN 110: -1,243.94
UFN 111: -805.78
Bella 180: +509.67
UFN 112: -856.70
LFA 15: -47.52 <----- summer slump ended (net of -3,117.03)
PFL 1: +351.48
TUF 25: -88.84
UFC 213: +176.14
DW1: +340
bella 181: +265.20
invicta 24: +92.50
ufn 113: +1,122.83
DW2: +248.01
UFC Fox 25: +1,808.50
DW3: +51.39
PFL 2: +2
UFC 214: +1,792.65
Rizin 6: -20
DW4: +113.50
LFA 18: -95.50
UFN 114: -1,105.65
DW 5: -125.90
DW 6: +466.32
Titan 45: -60
LFA 19: -205
DW 7: +469.94
Bella 182: +688.75
LFA 20: +102.50
DW 8: +350.75
Invicta 25: -63.75
UFN 115: +312.60
LFA 22: +237.50,
UFC 215: -169.46
UFN 116: -609.57
UFN 117: +97.95
LFA 23: -70
ACB 70: +99
Bella 183: +490.08
Bella 184: +118.34
UFC 216: +78.02
LFA 24: -92
Bella 185: -224
LFA 25: -70
UFN 118: +548.08
UFN 119: +619.06
PFL 3: -357.50
Bella 186: -304.60
UFC 217: +3,242.15 <----- best event of 2017
Bella 187: -50
UFN 120: +455.75
Bella 188: +90
Titan 46: +115
UFN 121: -2,108.75 <----- worst event of 2017 (man i get killed on aussie cards)
UFN 122: -561.84
Bella 189: -333
TUF 26: +1,009.84
UFC 218: +870.23
Invicta 26: +347.50
Bella 190: +194.50
UFN 123: +428.23
Bella 191: +78
UFC Fox 26: +382.65
Rizin 8: -31.67
UFC 219: +863.35

-------------

By Promotion:
UFC: +150.94 units (525 fights)
Bellator: +27.94 units (87 fights)
Japanese MMA (Rizin): +0.88 units (5 fights)
Invicta: +7.72 units (21 fights)
WSOF/PFL: -4.67 units (16 fights)
Titan: +2.55 units (7 fights)
Others: +1.23 units (28 fights)

-------------

By Price of the Fighter (this is a somewhat gray area, because if I bet on a -600 fighter but do it as "gaethje ITD -186" it counts for me as a bet on a fight with a -600 fighter, so to speak. grey area #2: my longshot event props fall under +401 and up dog slot

FAVORITES: +91.62 units (269 fights)
UNDERDOGS: +94.97 units (420 fights)

---
-101 to -200 favorites: +52.35 units (157 fights)
-201 to -400 favorites: +33.97 units (85 fights)
-401 & up favorites: +5.31 units (27 fights)

dogs up to +200: +93.09 units (232 fights)
+201 to +400 dogs: +3.46 units (107 fights)
+401 and up dogs: -1.58 units (81 fights)

-------------

By Weightclass (and event-wide):

Women: ((( +62.91 units total )))
145: +1.27 units
135: +10.33 units
125: +11.06 units
115: +40.55 units
105: -0.31 units

men: ((( +127.09 units total )))
265: +6.73 units
205: +20.54 units
185: +5.38 units
170: +22.04 units
155: +14.80 units
145: +16.36 units
135: +39.28 units
125: +1.96 units

---

event-wide props: ((( -3.40 units total )))

FIGHT OF THE NIGHT: -0.90 units

Fastest KO/SUB: -1.25 units

OVER decisions: +0.37 units
UNDER decisions: -0.40 units
OVER KO/SUBS: +0.58 units
UNDER KO/SUBS: -0.21 units

Draws: -1.6 units

-------------

bets where i KNEW both fighters and had seen them live previously: +145.64 units
bets where i was just going off of tape and wiki capping and what not: +40.96 units

-------------

the following are fight results, not necessarily moneylines (it's all bets on one fight) -- the fighter i bet is listed first in each.

huge losses (-5u or worse):
7/22/17: -543.50: bermudez vs elkins
2/20/17: -582.00: marshman vs santos <-- 9 seconds from profit, too
11/11/17: -643.45: lauzon vs guida


huge wins (+5.99u or better... too many wins of 4-5.98u to list)

6/24/17: +599.00: douglas lima vs larkin
4/22/17: +602.55: wineland vs dodson (via O2.5 and dodson dec)
10/28/17: +641.00: munhoz vs font
6/3/17: +648.50: holloway vs aldo
8/22/17: +707.95: nzechukwu vs berzin <-- lol how'd i win so much here
12/9/17: +719.50: saenz vs dvalishvili
7/7/17: +721.00: gaethje vs johnson
5/28/17: +797.90: velickovic vs musoke
9/22/17: +885.05: andrade vs gadelha
7/22/17: +897.50: zaleski vs good
5/28/17: +916.70: akhmedov vs al hassan
11/4/17: +1,224.27: dillashaw vs garbrandt
4/22/17: +1,323.75: moreno vs ortiz
11/4/17: +1,328.93: namajunas vs jedrzejczyk
7/29/17: +1,445.48: ortega vs moicano
2/20/17: +1,786.50: markos vs esparza

-------------

my key takeaways:
-WOW. almost a 50/50 split on profits from favorites and dogs for me. 2016 was all about dogs. interesting.
-event props continue to bleed some profit again this year
-wmma got WAY better for me (largely cause of namajunas and andrade wins)

2017: +187u
2016: +113u
2015: +175u
2014: +125u
2013: +115u
2012: +137u
2011: +97u
2010: +94u


i'm finally raising my units for the first time in a few years. long overdue, i know. 100/unit is now 150/unit.


Nice job man! I think it's awesome the way you keep your detailed stats. It definitely gives perspective on things like underdogs/parlays. It's interesting that the results are almost identical. I remember I did that with singles vs. parlays and was shocked how my profit was almost a 50/50 split between the two.
 
2017 was great for me. Started betting in 2015 and honestly I didn't know what the f--k I was doing. Was betting a lot on soccer, rugby, darts etc lol. The bookies love people staking on these kind of sports and I found out why.

Being the pedantic bastard I am I've tracked every single bet I've ever placed, so no one's asking but here are my life-long betting results:

2015: -£94.25
2016: -£127.76
2017: +£1,914.23

Lovely turnaround. Now obviously with a smaller unit size you can hide a little behind hedges & arbitrage and I absolutely do this. Nevertheless I still feel like I've learned a lot with my betting style and to an extent cured my phobia of betting on large dogs on a consistent basis.

One exception was the Soldic/Mankowski fight in KSW last week. I capped Soldic as a -200 favourite and couldn't believe the +200 odds we got on him (closed at something like +260!). But.. pretty much the whole forum/thread insisted he was outmatched, even @JimGunn laid crazy juice on his opponent. This completely discouraged me from making the big play I felt was warranted and ended up just doing a silly free bet on him. That gnawed away at me for a few days, felt like I'd lost money, no UFC that week made it even worse.

With that in mind I'll be increasing not just my unit size in the new year but also my ball size regarding steep dogs I feel are live.

Onwards and upwards.
 
I really haven't been able to track since I started school. I was up around 70 units in UFC wagers at that point and I suspect my overall yearly MMA count would fall somewhere in between 70 and 80 units.

biggest wins of the year were on RDA (versus Magny), Masvidal (versus Cowboy), Holloway ITD (vs Aldo II), Ferg ITD (versus Lee), and Whittaker (vs Jacare)

biggest losses were on Yair (versus Edgar), Jones DEC (versus DC II) [this one really hurt], Masvidal (versus WB), and Lewis (vs Hunt)

if you look at my biggest winners, you can tell that i like to fade aging fighters against good, up and comers. obviously they lose from time to time (see: Yair versus Edgar) but i think we get amazing line value on these fights and it's what i like to exploit the most in these lines
 
Dont know how to count it in units, raised my unit size quite a bit since the beginning of the year
Started of with a 2200$ BR in January. Never bet on any other sport ever before I started watching/betting on UFC in May/July 2016, barely ever watched any sport, so can't complain

UFC +15 930$
DWCS +1 770$
Bellator +950$
ACB +867$
Titan FC +90$
Glory +130$
Rizin +125$
CW +151$
Invicta -70$
Boxing -2 028$ (GGG/Canelo...)

UFC stats
2351 bets, 949 wins, 1402 losses
ROI 107.83%. Also including freerolls so that lowers the ROI quite a bit¨
Looking forward to new Dana Whites Contender Series, had 39 wins and 12 losses and 165% ROI there only wiki/sherdogcapping
Had some rough ufc events during the summer and was down to around what I started with this year but rebounded nice in autumn/winter.
Picked every main event right since Nunes/Shevchenko2 also, and that decision was questionable imo
SEK is the currency in my spreadsheet, only including ufc fights
upload_2018-1-2_8-33-43.png


And I like to take a moment to thank Max Holloway for this past year,
not including multiple parlays with him
upload_2018-1-2_8-30-34.png
 
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I finished the year winning 270u, (5400 € with 1u = 20 €) (I'm raising my unit size constantly so I didn't win so many units speaking properly, I will do a better job next year with the numbers lol). I'm happy considering my goal was to make a good bankroll this year. But there is a lot of room for improvement, my previous bets were not very good compared to 2016 (I had a very good run) and some months I was somewhat frustrated and didn't have the correct mind for a daily grind. On the other hand I have not stopped winning livebetting, especially the last two months: I won a lot livebetting on Rose Clark (vs. Rawlings) Muhammad (vs. Means) Guan (vs. Caceres), Teymur (vs. Klose) Davis (vs. Carmouche), Benitez (vs Knight), Makdessi (vs Trujillo) and finally yesterday won a lot betting Hooker (vs Diakese) and Holm / Cyborg goes DEC +137 and a bit less livebetting Michal vs. (Khalil bumtree)

The first months of the year were bad, I remember starting the year losing 10u livebetting Held vs Lauzon (wtf) and I had a terrible event where I ended up full tilt and lost a good amount of units (the event where Barboza won vs. Dariush by flying knee and Formiga lost vs Borg in the last minute lol). The biggest win of the year was yesterday (UFC 219-Holm-Cyborg) with a total profit of 1170€.

I began playing cents 27-28 months ago with a 100€ bankroll and now I have 7.2K. So yeah, I'm happy :D.

I have not participated much in the discussions of the fighting this year partly because English is not my language and for lack of time but as someone has said before, this is the best MMA forum and you learn a lot from the community. You guys are a nightmare for the bookies. good job !!
 
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This is my first year capping and think I've done a ok job. I love marital art and have previous years betting just to spice the exciement up a bit on fighters that I like/don' like.
I've tested some different ways of capping during this year and done so many wrongs along the way but I've also learned a lot from those wrongs (hopefully)
I'm going in to a new year of capping and leaving my rookie season behind me and hoping to improve my results.

http://www.betmma.tips/Philosopher
Here is most of my capping this year If anyone have some spare minutes to eye through it and give me some critique both good and bad it would be appreciated.
Happy New year

You are doing great, you are winning with a good ROI. Very good numbers considering this is your 1 year betting. Just be careful with the parlays, you are losing in that regard. Don't go big with parlays, parlays have a lot of variance and the bookies love the multiparlay bettors. I know some ppl in real life who can't stop doing parlays( even worst: livebetting parlays on australian soccer and shit like that. that's pure gambling) and they think that they do not win by bad luck and not by a terrible long-term strategy lol. But that's my opinion, there are people who know his shit and can be very successful with parlays.
 
Guys something just came to my mind, might well be that it's lame and stupid, so please give me your thoughts about it.

I will try to succeed with a gigantic 'parlay' in 2018:

At the next event (Stephens vs Choi) I will put 1unit on the ML that I am most confident in, totally ignoring the odds.
In case of me winning, I will put that 1unit + the winnings all on the ML that I am most confident in for the following event.
And so on, and so on. I am sure you get the idea already.

I would call this the 'L-Challenge'.
What does the L stand for?
It's obvious isn't it - on one hand it will stand for 'Lock', on the other hand it will stand for 'Luca' (since I will probably end up on heavily favorited fighters most of the time).
Could also be that I am done after 2 events already, who knows.

Would anybody be interested in joining me with this?
I could make an own thread for it, and it would be kind of a tournament.

The winner would be the guy who survives the longest.
This year there have been around 40 UFC events, I doubt that anybody will be able to last that long.
In case that the two last man standing last for the same event, the one with the higher stack wins.

On top of my head the rules would be:
-you have to make your choice for every event, if you skip one you are out!
-you have to be on board for the first event of the year already, joining later won't be possible!
-you are only allowed to bet a ML, no props!
-you are not out if the fight ends in a draw or a no contest

There would be no prize pool, it would just be for glory and honor and fun, so you could theoretically also join if you don't bet the whole thing for real (although that makes it less interesting, I feel).
You don't have to make screencaps for your actual bet or so.

Sounds fun? Sounds stupid? Please gimme your feedback.
This literally came to my mind a few minutes ago, so I might be totally off about it. But in my head it sounds like a fun community thing to do.
I will personally do this anyway, the only question is if others are interested in it as well.

Thank you for your attention for now :cool:
Sounds fun count me in bro!
 
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