Non-MMA Sports Betting Discussion - January, 2018

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nick foles filled in for the injured smith last year and in two games put up a rating of 86 and 135 throwing three tds 0 picks and completed roughly 65 percent of his passes.

he could have a bad game today just the same as he could easily go 16 for 24,1 td and 0 picks.

i think whoever wins the to battle wins the game today.
you conveniently leave out the point that the 135 quarterback rating came against one of the worst defenses in the league lol
 
you conveniently leave out the point that the 135 quarterback rating came against one of the worst defenses in the league lol

rodgers played against indy the same year, at home, and put up a 95 rating.

i just think its bizarre to assume that a former pro bowl mvp qb cant put up a 90 rating day today at home in which the eagles are probably going to win if he does so if philly does not turn over the ball
 
rodgers played against indy the same year, at home, and put up a 95 rating.

i just think its bizarre to assume that a former pro bowl mvp qb cant put up a 90 rating day today at home in which the eagles are probably going to win if he does so if philly does not turn over the ball
You have to take it in context. The year that Foles was a pro bowler was the year Chip Kelly's offense was brought into the league and teams had a hard time figuring it out/keeping up w their pace. Foles has proven to be a crap quarterback. After leaving that Eagles team, Foles is only 4-11 ATS as a starter. You're literally only looking 10 of his 40 career starts and making it seem like that's his "norm" as opposed to it being an outlier. Take that season away for a second, and he owns a 34:27 td to int ratio, which is pretty pathetic
 
Falcons ml (-137) risk 2u.

I flat out think they are the better team. I don’t think the competition they played this year is even close with the falcons division being absolutely stacked.
 
I heard today the eagles are gonna play up tempo
 
Falcons ml (-137) risk 2u.

I flat out think they are the better team. I don’t think the competition they played this year is even close with the falcons division being absolutely stacked.
Just curious do you think they are better even if the eagles have wentz?
 
i think the best way to play the atlanta/philly game is to tease the eagles to +8.5. here is my reasoning:

1. the falcons offense wasn't doing well last week until Michael Brockers got hurt. when he left the game, they were able to run the ball effectively as the Rams dont have much depth behind Brockers. Conversely, the Eagles have a very stout defense (7th versus pass, 3rd versus run in terms of DVOA) and they have good depth as well. i can see the Falcons offense having trouble moving the ball

2. the eagles have had an extra week to prep for this game, which maximizes the prep they have for Foles in this tough situation

3. in addition to getting Foles in a good situation, the Falcons have not been good against the run this year. Gurley absolutely shredded them and i expect the Eagles to do much of the same. With the running game going, Foles is going to have an even easier time throwing the ball

4. the weather in Philly is going to be in the mid 30s with 15+ mph winds. guess which team that benefits- yup, the home team that likes to run the ball and play smash mouth

5. this will be the Falcons 4th road game in 5 weeks, all of which have been extremely important games. one has to wonder how much gas they have left in their tank

6. if you tease from +2.5 to +8.5, you go through all the key numbers of 3, 4, 6, and 7. the game also has a very low total of 40, which means that points come at a premium and 8.5 points is more significant than it would be in a higher total game


now to play devil's advocate

1. one has to wonder how the eagles feel after losing their MVP QB. they might just mail it in and not care considering the Eagles barely got by the Raiders and now they play a much better Falcons team. motivation could be a big deal here

2. foles has shown to be a pretty bad quarterback. as listed above, i do think that this game sets up well for his chances to not play like shit, but talent is talent and Foles is definitely lacking in that department. do not be fooled by Foles' stats in his first stint with the Eagles. this was the new up-tempo offense that chip kelly brought to the NFL, which NFL teams had issues with initially. they definitely "fluffed" Foles' stats that year

3. the Falcons are reigning NFC champions, have a former MVP quarterback behind center, and their head coach is one of the top coaches in the league in terms of accomplishments in recent history as he's been a part of a SB team in 3 of the last 4 seasons (twice as the defensive coordinator for the seahawks and once as the head coach of the falcons)

-------------------------------------------------------

personally, im throwing Eagles +8.5 in a 2-team, open teaser (hoping to pair it w a game tomorrow) for 3u at -110. I dont particularly like Eagles +2.5 because of the latter three reasons that I listed but I'd probably bet them small at +3. for what its worth, i think the team that gets going early will have a lot easier time winning this game as both teams seem to be poised to play with the lead as opposed to come from behind.
Good BD..bovada still has eagles +3 btw
 
Just won 86 units in my football pool finishing in 9th out of 250! The Browns losing to the Packers a few weeks ago cost me thousands in the pool.

I had a bet on Goffin today vs Zverev which I thought I posted but guess not. Anyways, adding these for the Australian:

Dimitrov (+1400) risk .75u to win 10.5u
Goffin (+4000) risk .25u to win 10u

Is Feds back gonna hold up, are Nadal and Djoker going to even play?, hows Andy’s hip?, how’s Stanimal doing? These two quietly finished 2017 on a tear and with Goffin cruising past Zverev in straights this morning I’m hoping he’s going to open up the season in solid form.

man i'm gonna just take it easy on the aussie, dude -- the hours are so brutal.. it was much more feasible at my old job

i like both of your futures, why the heck not.. but no strong opinions
 
You have to take it in context. The year that Foles was a pro bowler was the year Chip Kelly's offense was brought into the league and teams had a hard time figuring it out/keeping up w their pace. Foles has proven to be a crap quarterback. After leaving that Eagles team, Foles is only 4-11 ATS as a starter. You're literally only looking 10 of his 40 career starts and making it seem like that's his "norm" as opposed to it being an outlier. Take that season away for a second, and he owns a 34:27 td to int ratio, which is pretty pathetic

https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/new...ainst_Atlanta_s_Cover-3_scheme-468334193.html

i like the eagles today for some of the reasons that you mentioned(road 4 out of last 5 and how much do they have left) as well as the fact that all six of the games that the falcons lost they also lost the t/o battle which i think they lose today. their recent wins, other than the no game, they all won the t/o ratio. some other weird stat on road favorite dome teams doing terrible outdoors in the playoffs.

that, and i have an blatant addiction to plus money bets.
 
https://www.nbcphiladelphia.com/new...ainst_Atlanta_s_Cover-3_scheme-468334193.html

i like the eagles today for some of the reasons that you mentioned(road 4 out of last 5 and how much do they have left) as well as the fact that all six of the games that the falcons lost they also lost the t/o battle which i think they lose today. some other weird stat on road favorite dome teams doing terrible outdoors in the playoffs

that, and i have an blatant addiction to plus money bets.
i am also on the eagles at +8.5. the weather is gonna be big here imo because it discourages throwing. if that's the case, the Eagles should have a decent advantage

edit: great start. a TERRRIBLE throw by Foles which was bailed out by a PI then a fumble. awesome
 
ATL getting these special teams blunders lol
 
Just curious do you think they are better even if the eagles have wentz?

Pretty equal to be quite honest. If you were to look at them position by position I don’t think Philly has to many advantages other than D-line maybe. Wentz has no post season experience.
 
man i'm gonna just take it easy on the aussie, dude -- the hours are so brutal.. it was much more feasible at my old job

i like both of your futures, why the heck not.. but no strong opinions

My wife and I just had twins last week so we’ll see how much time I have too.

I also own a CrossFit gym and bought out my partner a few months ago so I’m swamped there too.
 
My wife and I just had twins last week so we’ll see how much time I have too.

I also own a CrossFit gym and bought out my partner a few months ago so I’m swamped there too.

Oh man. You will have no life the next year bro.

But my daughters first years while plenty stressful are looked back on with much fondness
 
Oh man. You will have no life the next year bro.

But my daughters first years while plenty stressful are looked back on with much fondness
My daughter is 1 and im loving it...how did you get a yellow card?
 
My wife and I just had twins last week so we’ll see how much time I have too.

I also own a CrossFit gym and bought out my partner a few months ago so I’m swamped there too.
Congratulations bro thats exciting
 
My daughter is 1 and im loving it...how did you get a yellow card?

Politics for the yellow card

Yea. My wife and I really are starting to miss those first years. My only advice to a new dad of a daughter is do everything with her. Volunteer at her school. Show her and the teachers you are there and that you care
 
Politics for the yellow card

Yea. My wife and I really are starting to miss those first years. My only advice to a new dad of a daughter is do everything with her. Volunteer at her school. Show her and the teachers you are there and that you care
I know better than to go to that thread lol. Thats my plan thanks for the advice bro
 
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