My initial thought on Vick vs Trinaldo was that it would open close to a pick em, with Vick maybe a very small favorite coming off what was the best performance of his career against Duffy. After looking into it some more, I still feel the same way. I can't see any justification for Vick being a -230 favorite here.
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@Stunna77 already mentioned, Vick has shown himself to be vulnerable against southpaws, getting dropped twice in the first round against both Hein and Dariush, the only two southpaws he's faced. Vick's defense isn't great, he often leaves himself open for counters, which could be a major issue for him in this fight. Trinaldo throws a hard left hand counter and Vick's chin is a bit of a question mark. Also, the last time that Vick stepped up to this level of competition, it went very badly for him. Another concern for me is that Vick at times has been a slow starter, where as Trin typically comes out strong.
All that said, I can't be overly confident in Trinaldo either. I think we're starting to see improvements from fight to fight with Vick. He's become more effective at utilizing his reach, particularly using his jab. I think it's possible that this could wear on Trinaldo as the fight moves along, as it did with Duffy. Which brings me to my main concern here, which is Trin's gas tank. As he fatigues he starts to hold his hands lower and lower and his strikes become much more telegraphed. But, even when he's visibly gassed, his footwork does remain pretty solid and he still seems to carry a lot of his power. Another worry is that Trin has a tendency to shoot when he gets hurt and Vick is dangerous at locking up chokes with those long arms. Lastly, and this might be stupid, but eye pokes could be an issue here. I don't remember all the exact fights off the top of my head, but Vick constantly sticks his fingers straight out and has eye poked a high percentage of his opponents. It happened twice in the first round against Dariush.
There's going to be a few props that I'll be looking for but as of now I have 2u Trinaldo at +180 in what I see as close to a coin flip. I also expect Trinaldo to have a good first round, maybe even get a finish, so I'll be watching live bet closely if he seems to slowing down.