How surprised are you gonna be if Ferguson dominates Khabib for 5 rounds?

[GreatSaintGuillotine]

Not too many people take the time to break down fighting styles like you just did and I find myself agreeing with pretty much all of it. I see this fight being a bloody war that is probably determined in the 5th round. I feel like if either fighter adrenaline dumps or punches themselves out by dominating the 1st they will regret it in the 5th.

Oh for sure. I really think the Barboza fight was Khabib experimenting with his cardio. Seeing how much damage he could reasonably deal in 3 rounds while being fresh enough to go 2 more. Tony has proven that he can push out 5 rounds and still look fresh. Both guys can push out crazy volume without breaking a sweat. It'll be a wild ride.

 

[Paynebringer]

Wouldn't be surprised at all, it's not like we haven't seen Khabib wobbled and we know he pressure strikes & fights to take you down. Tony needz to devise a good fight plan to keep standing & distance even on the ground Tony is a wiry fighter...

 

[chinarice]

I don't care how Tony wins, as long as he does. It will be god damn glorious.

 

[Sturmgeshutz]

I'm not even going to predict the fight until Bruce Buffer is announcing it. Alot can happen between now and then.

 

[bambammccoy]

True. Tony is a very slow starter and fucks around a lot in early rounds. Still, when that engine starts going things get crazy reeeeeal quick.

He fights at a quick pace from the get go he isn't a slow starter.

He doesn't start having success until his opponents slow down. If his opponent is fresh in the 2nd he will still struggle, assuming he is fighting top comp.

He relies heavily on chin and cardio.

 

[Fatal Catro]

Surprised, but less surprised than most here.

 

[mkess101]

I see many people here still like to pick Tony to win fights through such insightful analysis like “he’s tough man” instead of actually listing what he apparently does better than his opponent, and how he’ll implement it against what his opponent brings to the table.

Tony is on a long streak. But he easily could’ve lost a fair few of them. Relying on toughness to overcome skill deficits has never been a good game plan, and I’m shocked how often people make fight predictions based on it.

So I don't post in the heavies much, mostly in the MMA betting section is where I am. Because I'm putting my $ on these fights, and so are the other guys there. And a lot of us do very well. So I'm going to address the point you are attempting to make. A recent fight that I won $ on is a great example as to why you are ignoring something very important.

The fight was Paul Felder vs Charles Oliveira. If you remember that fight, Oliveira got Felder's back and was close to sinking in the RNC. But Felder fought and gutted it out, and managed to escape a spot where a lot of guys panic or quit. Oliveira is a slick submission fighter with great chokes. Felder eventually escaped and ended up winning by TKO. After the fight, one theme that we talked about in the MMA betting section was: TOUGHNESS MATTERS.

Ferguson has a lot of skills, but to act like his toughness is not an important attribute is dumb. Barboza was broken early vs Khabib. That won't happen with Tony. Part of it is his cardio. Elite cardio allows guys like Tony to weather storms and still be fresh when the next round starts to attack and bring the fight to their opponent. He might have the best cardio in MMA. In Mexico City, where EVERYONE was gassing (even the smaller guys), he INCREASED his output as the fight went on vs RDA and left RDA in the dust.

I'm not saying Tony necessarily beats Khabib. I don't have a crystal ball. And I'm not saying his toughness is the only thing he brings to the table. (I'd hope everyone has seen his skillset if they are posting here). But you also can't act like his toughness isn't a factor. The guy THRIVES on winning wars of attrition. And in a 5 round fight, that matters even more.

 

[Oboeplata]

I would be more surprised if Tony dominates Khabib for 5 rounds than to see Tony knocking out Khabib in the 1st or 2nd.

 

[markg171]

Mostly because people are aware that being tough and having tons of heart many times is the decisive factor despite the technical aspects of the fight. And Tony has shown both, whilst we haven't seen it from Khabib, since he hasn´t been in any real danger. But some people have said it here and before, that Ferguson is a very good wrestler himself and phisically strong so he can stop the takedowns, just like Tibal did. And on the feet he is much better than Khabib.
Is that enough for you, or should I continue?
I´ll continue.... Tony's ground game is extremely dangerous, and he knows how to use elbows from the bottom, ask Lee. So although Khabib has a very strong top game, Tony can catch him with a slick submission.

This is the kind of vague "analysis" I was complaining about in the first place...

That's fair. People put far too much weight in it tho. Being tough is good and an important quality but it's not something you can rely on to win you a fight at the top of the game.


Tony could not be more different from Tibau and has been taken down plenty across his UFC career. Eddie Bravo has even stated that he and Tony's camp expect to be taken down. Just being strong doesn't stop TDs. Edson and RDA are extremely strong and it did not help them at all. Everything in this is just inaccurate comparison.


Tony can use elbows on the ground from 1 postion. Full guard. So if Khabib tripods and lays in GnP (which he does in every fight), passes guard (which he is very capable of doing), or traps an arm (which he always does) then it will be extremely difficult for him to do significant damage from bottom. Khabib just does not spend enough time in vulnerable positions in people's guard.

Tony's best submission is a D'arce choke, which requires him to allow Khabib into top position in half guard. This is extremely dangerous and has backfired on Tony in other fights. The other submission that Tony is likely to attempt is a triangle choke. This requires Tony to keep Khabib in guard and unable to break the choke. Lee was able to do both of these on Tony's first triangle attempt but gassed and proceeded to stay in guard eat elbows until he got subbed.

Tony has the tools to win and a better chance at beating Khabib then anyone else in LW BUT doing so is nowhere near as simple as you make it out to be.

Tony is a very aggressive fighter and willingly leaves himself open to deal more damage with wild strikes. He is unorthodox and very well rounded. However, he often relies on his toughness to carry him through the mistakes that he makes. Against Khabib that could be a bad mentality. It could also save his ass. there is no way to know for sure, making it unreliable in formulating a game plan.

Ideally, Tony takes this into championship rounds, deals significant damage on the feet for 3-4 rounds and manages to scramble into a favorable position allowing to lock up a sub.

This fight is very close to a coin flip. Nether fighter will have an easy time implementing their game plan. I give Khabib a very very slight edge as Tony's cockiness could very well help Khabib jump start his game plan. 55-45 Khabib

And this is the type of analysis with specific examples of how fighters' skills actually matchup that you should be doing.

 

[GreatSaintGuillotine]

He fights at a quick pace from the get go he isn't a slow starter.

He doesn't start having success until his opponents slow down. If his opponent is fresh in the 2nd he will still struggle, assuming he is fighting top comp.

He relies heavily on chin and cardio.

I disagree. He's not Cowboy levels of slow starting but he does ease into that first round. His slow is just other people's mid pace. He rarely goes in hard off the bell.

I agree with the second part mostly. Tony will be competitive against any fresh fighter but he may not win the round.

 

[GBcrazy]

Either one getting a finish is more likely than a 5 rounds domination.

 

[Chok Sok Te]

Never again will I ever say ‘
This fight is a sure win for X’
It’s been my downfall more often than I care to share in the past year or so

 

[GreatSaintGuillotine]

So I don't post in the heavies much, mostly in the MMA betting section is where I am. Because I'm putting my $ on these fights, and so are the other guys there. And a lot of us do very well. So I'm going to address the point you are attempting to make. A recent fight that I won $ on is a great example as to why you are ignoring something very important.

The fight was Paul Felder vs Charles Oliveira. If you remember that fight, Oliveira got Felder's back and was close to sinking in the RNC. But Felder fought and gutted it out, and managed to escape a spot where a lot of guys panic or quit. Oliveira is a slick submission fighter with great chokes. Felder eventually escaped and ended up winning by TKO. After the fight, one theme that we talked about in the MMA betting section was: TOUGHNESS MATTERS.

Ferguson has a lot of skills, but to act like his toughness is not an important attribute is dumb. Barboza was broken early vs Khabib. That won't happen with Tony. Part of it is his cardio. Elite cardio allows guys like Tony to weather storms and still be fresh when the next round starts to attack and bring the fight to their opponent. He might have the best cardio in MMA. In Mexico City, where EVERYONE was gassing (even the smaller guys), he INCREASED his output as the fight went on vs RDA and left RDA in the dust.

I'm not saying Tony necessarily beats Khabib. I don't have a crystal ball. And I'm not saying his toughness is the only thing he brings to the table. (I'd hope everyone has seen his skillset if they are posting here). But you also can't act like his toughness isn't a factor. The guy THRIVES on winning wars of attrition. And in a 5 round fight, that matters even more.

I think the poster isn't trying to say toughness doesn't matter. Just that you can't put a lot of faith in toughness at the highest level of the sport.

In the case of Felder vs Olivera, I believe that was less of toughing out the choke and more of staying calm enough under pressure to properly adjust and defend.

You make a very good point and I agree on many accounts but the counter argument is also solid. Toughness is important and a must have but you can't have that be your road to victory. It is always a supplementary factor.

 

[Tylerl90]

Pretty damn surprised. Tony has a sneaky BJJ game off his back, but I just don't think it'll be enough to stop Khabib. I actually think Khabib wins by GNP TKO.

 

[OnMcGregorNutz]

400k pesos right??

400 cents

 

[Mixedfights]

I dont get the hard on for him on this forum. His fights are boring, he hardly finishes anybody and he's always injured.

 

[Makani]

Very shocked, but I think we'll know pretty quickly which way this fight will go. If Khabib can't get the early takedowns, he might get pieced up by the time Ferguson is tired enough to go down. I am still so angry this fight fell apart last year, I hope both guys are 100%.

 

[Sparkie]

pretty fucking surprised

 

[mkess101]

I think the poster isn't trying to say toughness doesn't matter. Just that you can't put a lot of faith in toughness at the highest level of the sport.

In the case of Felder vs Olivera, I believe that was less of toughing out the choke and more of staying calm enough under pressure to properly adjust and defend.

You make a very good point and I agree on many accounts but the counter argument is also solid. Toughness is important and a must have but you can't have that be your road to victory. It is always a supplementary factor.

Generally I'd agree. But Tony is a different type of fighter. That doesn't mean he doesn't have skills. I can breakdown how his front headlock to snapdown is maybe the best in the sport. Or how his unpredictable striking makes him so hard to train for. Etc. etc. But with Tony his cardio and toughness are attributes that he ACTIVELY utilizes in his gameplans. He's overly aggressive from the start, and forces guys to match it. This makes them expend energy. And he just knows his chin will hold up and that his gas tank is bigger than theirs. It's by design that he comes forward so aggressively. He forces guys into wars of attrition, whether they want one or not.

So in Tony's case, toughness (and cardio) aren't necessarily supplementary. They are vital, intrical skills that he blends with his other skills to form his total package.

Rewatch Felder too. That choke was pretty tight, even he said it. A lot of guys tap. Was it also staying calm? Sure. But no doubt it was toughness too.

 

[Russ82]

I'd be very surprised, but at the same time, Khabib is very one dimensional and when he loses it's gonna resemble Ronda's beating from Holm.

Only person with a chance is someone with crisp boxing who can KO him before he gets that first takedown. Conor has the best chance out of anyone.