UFC 223 - Ferguson vs. Nurmagomedov

[t6p]

No question Felder is more durable than those guys. I'll just argue against any "real" play that involves questions. I have no doubts Al hits hard, chins hes cracked aside. And I have no doubts Felder has never eaten a punch with the power behind it that Al possesses. So that's immediate risk in play that I can't mitigate without having to hope. Hope that Felder can take the biggest punch hes ever eaten cause he seems durable otherwise.

Do I see value on Al dec? Sure, for something small-ish. As I started getting at in my previous post though, I wouldn't risk any money on 'goes distance' with the further questions that come up when looking at things on the opposite end. Seems quite a few are OK with the risks involved though

Fair enough. Both guys being more than capable of finishing combined with the fact that if this does hit the cards I favor Al to get the nod pushed me away from playing fight goes to decision.

IMO Al decision is the most likely scenario by a small margain, so I went bigger on it than I normally would on a prop. It also pays better than Felder decision which doesn't make sense to me at all. Felder's volume is an issue and he's 2-2 in his UFC fights that have gone the distance. One of those wins was a split that many scored for Saggo and the other was a close fight with Burkman that he was losing until Burkman gassed badly. Meanwhile, Al has never lost a fight on the scorecards, although to be fair the Masvidal decision probably shouldn't have gone his way.

 

[Sham5916910]

Wasnt felder rocked at end of r3 by saggo?

 

[t6p]

Wasnt felder rocked at end of r3 by saggo?

He got caught with a flying knee and Saggo had him in trouble when the bell rang. I think it was partially exhaustion but he was definitely hurt too.

 

[lefontes]

Love all dogs for this event

 

[zeckdo]

Reminder for everyone who wanna play Ferguson.

Don’t.

Livebet him after round 2.

I will be super surprised if he wins r1. I’ll be pretty surprised if he wins r2. After that, if he makes Khabib work, it’s Tony Time.

Tony by dec is +650, tony Round 4 and 5 are all good pre fight bets imo. I would not bet his ML though.

 

[null]

I like stabs at Tony Ferguson in round 4 and Tony Ferguson in round 5 at nice odds.

 

[zeckdo]

Kattar vs Moicano is such a good match up. two high volume accurate strikers. Moicano made a terrible decision by shooting on T city 13 min into their fight, that's a little concerning, Kattar's finish of Burgos was super impressive. God this fight is hard to pick. I cap it even, maybe 55% Kattar, so Moicano line might have some value. don't think I'm gonna bet this one.

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Love all dogs for this event

Even Bochniak?

 

[Wiktoruspro]

Kattar vs Moicano is such a good match up. two high volume accurate strikers. Moicano made a terrible decision by shooting on T city 13 min into their fight, that's a little concerning, Kattar's finish of Burgos was super impressive. God this fight is hard to pick. I cap it even, maybe 55% Kattar, so Moicano line might have some value. don't think I'm gonna bet this one.

Kattar will win

 

[Jamah]

Even Bochniak?

He will probably be the underdog, but there aren't odds yet.

 

[NorthernLights]

Kattar will win

Can you do one of those for every fight on the card? It would save us all a lot of trouble.

 

[Jamah]

Kattar vs Moicano is such a good match up. two high volume accurate strikers. Moicano made a terrible decision by shooting on T city 13 min into their fight, that's a little concerning, Kattar's finish of Burgos was super impressive. God this fight is hard to pick. I cap it even, maybe 55% Kattar, so Moicano line might have some value. don't think I'm gonna bet this one.

Moicano was going to lose by decision against Ortega anyway, it wasn't a brainfart takedown that costed him the fight.
Kattar was able to box comfortably against Burgos and Fili, but Moicano will mix in some takedowns and that's going to help him win this fight a lot.

 

[t6p]

Moicano was going to lose by decision against Ortega anyway, it wasn't a brainfart takedown that costed him the fight.
Kattar was able to box comfortably against Burgos and Fili, but Moicano will mix in some takedowns and that's going to help him win this fight a lot.

I think he’ll try to mix in takedowns but I’m not sure how successful he’s going to be. Kattar’s tdd has looked good and he stays balanced/rarely overextends. But, worst case, it gives Kattar something else to think about.

Where I really see Moicano having success is with his leg kicks. Kattar hardly ever checks them and his lead leg is right there to be kicked. Moicano throws nice low kicks from both stances. I like him quite a bit here at his current price.

 

[Jamah]

I think he’ll try to mix in takedowns but I’m not sure how successful he’s going to be. Kattar’s tdd has looked good and he stays balanced/rarely overextends. But, worst case, it gives Kattar something else to think about.

Where I really see Moicano having success is with his leg kicks. Kattar hardly ever checks them and his lead leg is right there to be kicked. Moicano throws nice low kicks from both stances. I like him quite a bit here at his current price.

That's what I meant. Even if Moicano doesn't get the takedowns, Kattar won't be as confortable as in his previous fights when his opponents didn't even attempt one.
And yes, the kicks are definetly going to be a big factor.
I cap Moicano at -120, so I'll be on him too because there's value at the current odds.

 

[zeckdo]

Moicano was going to lose by decision against Ortega anyway, it wasn't a brainfart takedown that costed him the fight.
Kattar was able to box comfortably against Burgos and Fili, but Moicano will mix in some takedowns and that's going to help him win this fight a lot.

I thought Moicano was winning before the TD but it was razor close.

 

[MixedMartialFarts]

I'm confident in Felder here. He has more diverse striking and is getting more patient in the octagon. If he can keep it on the feet I think he can possibly tko Al late in the fight.

I have a small bet @ 2.0 but I'm interested to see where the line moves.

 

[null]

Money came in everywhere on Chiesa this evening, he's now a favorite at every book I see.

 

[Shoulder]

Money came in everywhere on Chiesa this evening, he's now a favorite at every book I see.

Nice, feel good about my 1U at 1.95 then.

I just don’t trust Pettis AT ALL at this point. He has taken so much punishment in all his losses I’m surprised they didn’t give him a easy win this time.

 

[raketmannen]

Money came in everywhere on Chiesa this evening, he's now a favorite at every book I see.

Great, I got 4u on Chiesa +140, anticipated the line movement but seemed to turn back to Pettis being a bigger favorite for a while

 

[piglord]

brandon moreno sub +1000? i think borg dec is the most likely outcome but this is moreno's best chance to win.