UFC FN 128 - Barboza vs Lee - Atlantic City

My official FN 128 bets Fights 50$ each

Cummins+120
Bahdruzda+110
Simon wins by dec+171
Garcia+132
Hooker wins inside+290
John wins by dec+161
Branch+145
Barboza+135

Prop bets 50$ each
9 fights end in a dec+1187
10 fights end in a dec+3975
4 fights end in a dec+866

0 fights end in KO+2525
1 fight ends in KO+585
5 fights end in KO+749

4 fights end in sub+1262
5 fights end in sub+4150
6 fights end in sub+22000

Last event I won 695$ lets make this 2 winning events in a row!!!!!!!!
 
Somebody sell me on Nakamura please.
 
OutRun said:
Somebody sell me on Nakamura please.
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Tony Martin is younger + more athletic but doesn't have any signature wins to suggest he is reliable as a -200 fave vs soild opponent like Nakamura.

Nakamura never loses that badly-- even when he was a +700 dog against Breese he held his own. And he beat Morono + arguably beat Zaleski-- is there strong reason to believe Tony Martin is significantly better than these guys?

Nakamura is the better finisher and much higher fight IQ. This is a good pair of traits to have to pull off an upset against somebody who isn't THAT much more talented.
 
mrbaapt said:
Lee has been on a recent campaign of lambasting the top guys in his division for all things including "missing weight" and "not looking championship level". I don't see how showing up and being exposed as a giant hypocrite won't affect his performance.
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I have nothing to add I just want to say thank you for the truly wonderful Morrissey profile pic.
 
lifeisgood12345 said:
Tony Martin is younger + more athletic but doesn't have any signature wins to suggest he is reliable as a -200 fave vs soild opponent like Nakamura.

Nakamura never loses that badly-- even when he was a +700 dog against Breese he held his own. And he beat Morono + arguably beat Zaleski-- is there strong reason to believe Tony Martin is significantly better than these guys?

Nakamura is the better finisher and much higher fight IQ. This is a good pair of traits to have to pull off an upset against somebody who isn't THAT much more talented.
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Sound reasoning so far, but it's not very specific. Is Nakamura markedly better at any mode of combat? How does he actually match up in style? Takedowns, TDD, counterpunching, leg kicks, cardio, power, chin, pressure, combos, cagewrestling, et cetera?

What does Nakamura's ideal night look like?
 
Levels said:
I just watched the staredown between AfghanKilla and Chagas at unofficial weigh in

AfghanKilla gangster af

Chagas looked away, couldn't handle the stare of a real G

Thats the mind game, Chagas already broke

Now that AfghanKilla is +money, maybe its time to do business

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True story. When a guy won't look his opponent in the eye you damn well he's shaken and is about to get starched. Can't argue this line of thinking really...

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mkess101 said:
True story. When a guy won't look his opponent in the eye you damn well he's shaken and is about to get starched. Can't argue this line of thinking really...

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Nah it wasn't like that though, Jones never initiates eye contact at all

Chagas initiated eye contact and then broke contact for a second cause he was shook af looking into the eyes of a real hitta
 
Levels said:
Nah it wasn't like that though, Jones never initiates eye contact at all

Chagas initiated eye contact and then broke contact for a second cause he was shook af looking into the eyes of a real hitta
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Yes I'm sure he's petrified. Professional cage fighters often get "shook" at weigh ins and staredowns. We should see if we can find odds that Chagas doesn't even show up because he's so scared. Make some real $.
 
mkess101 said:
Yes I'm sure he's petrified. Professional cage fighters often get "shook" at weigh ins and staredowns. We should see if we can find odds that Chagas doesn't even show up because he's so scared. Make some real $.
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Chagas, yeah he shook 100%

Look, you don't really understand the situation and I cbf explaining it to you but let me tell you that AfghanKilla is a real hitta, grew up on the streets of Afganistan.

But now I'm about the get that #ArabMoney
 
The best kind of comedy is unintentional comedy.
 
Levels said:
Chagas, yeah he shook 100%

Look, you don't really understand the situation and I cbf explaining it to you but let me tell you that AfghanKilla is a real hitta, grew up on the streets of Afganistan.

But now I'm about the get that #ArabMoney
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Fo sho I don't understand yo. I know nothin' 'bout no real hittas. You right, you right.

(And...evidently this is my life. A 40 year old man sipping Jameson on ice and posting this shit at 1 am out of boredom. @Levels isn't the pathetic one here. Sadly, he's just being who he is. I'm the dumbass feeding into it. Shame on me I guess.)
 
Not sure if line error by 5d but fights to end in KO/TKO jumps from +7000 for o6.5 to +46200 for o7.5.

I put a few bucks on that, why not? Of course I don't expect it to hit or even come close to hitting, but 462-1 that at least 8 of the 11 fights end in KO/TKO? And no WMMA fights on the card anymore? Damn right I'll toss a couple bucks on it at those insane odds.
 
I'm debating putting money on Chase. Willis looks like an absolute slob.
 
TITS said:
I'm debating putting money on Chase. Willis looks like an absolute slob.
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He is surprisingly athletic for his body shape, he also went 3 rounds in his debut so his cardio isn't terrible.
 
vkram said:
He is surprisingly athletic for his body shape, he also went 3 rounds in his debut so his cardio isn't terrible.
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The seed has been sown.
 
Shame that Ladd vs Smith got canceled, really liked Smith @~2.4 for a few reasons. 1) I like money and 2.) Ladd needs to get slapped.

Also Branch as a heavy underdog is puzzling to me, althought he tends to always get underrated. Branch is such a good grappler and Santos always looks so lost on the ground.

Also love Nakamura @~3 and to a lesser extent Miller @~3.8. Both have heart for days, and especially Keitaro is always dangerous with his RNC. Took Sterling @1.95 too. I used to bet against him religiously, but I really think he has made some huge improvements lately. People are overreacting to him getting KTFO by Moraes.

Small on Garcia @2.35 and Anderson @1.9 too.
 
onC said:
Shame that Ladd vs Smith got canceled, really liked Smith @~2.4 for a few reasons. 1) I like money and 2.) Ladd needs to get slapped.

Also Branch as a heavy underdog is puzzling to me, althought he tends to always get underrated. Branch is such a good grappler and Santos always looks so lost on the ground.

Also love Nakamura @~3 and to a lesser extent Miller @~3.8. Both have heart for days, and especially Keitaro is always dangerous with his RNC. Took Sterling @1.95 too. I used to bet against him religiously, but I really think he has made some huge improvements lately. People are overreacting to him getting KTFO by Moraes.

Small on Garcia @2.35 and Anderson @1.9 too.
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With you on every bet you named.
 
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