TUF 27 Finale bets

Tavares +335 .15u

Trizano +152 1.7u
Trizano DEC +280 .26u
Trizano ITD +700 .3u

Caceres +108 2u
Caceres SUB +750 .13u

Marquez -127 1.5u

Honchak -140 .5u

Ostovich +191 .5u
Ostovich SUB +625 .13u

Bessette -138 .5u
Bessette NSC +100 .33u

Pena -158 4.5u (Combination of +145, +105, -120, -160, -210, and -222)

Piechota -133 1.33u
Piechota SUB +565 .25u

Mitchell NSC -134 .9u
Diamond DEC +185 .13u

Planned to switch over to Adesanya, but can't do it with the small cage, bought out most of my Tavares action. Wanted to be on Mitchell as a big dog but the public is giving him his deserved respect. Will be on Katona if I can get near -200
 
Pena -158 4.5u (Combination of +145, +105, -120, -160, -210, and -222)

Niiiiice.
 
0.4u Tavares DEC +330
0.1u Tavares SUB +955

1u Piechota +155
0.5u Meerchaert +205

Tiny card for me. Couldn't even bring myself to leave the 1u on Piechota alone. Hoping for some decent live betting opportunities.
 
I have a disgusting amount of units on Trizano what is bankroll management boys i'm either buying a ferrari or burning newspaper under a bridge to stay warm after this one
 
1.5u Peña + Brazier(win) @2.10
1u Bravo @2.15

1u Trizano @2.50
0.3u Trizano ITD @8.00

1u Tavares @2.25
 
$62.51/$102.97
Honchak/Modafarri st round 3 -585
Whitmire/Moyle st round 3 -467
Raphael Assuncao -170
Mighty Mouse -580

$10/$140
No extras Miami/wash win
Texas/Detroit win
Pena -3.5 -260
Brad Katona -240
Assuncao by decision +100
Daniel Cormier +190
Mighty Mouse -580

$20/$59
Atlanta first 5 -130 win
Brazil wins group -225 win
Joey Chestnut -750 win
Luis Pena -285

$20/$350
Joe Giannetti -135
Font/Assuncao starts rd 3 -320
Costa inside distance -190
Cormier by decision +425
 
Diamond -155 1u
Zuniga -135 0.7u
Marquez -160 1.5u
Trizano +145 1.2u
Tavares +155 1u
Katona ITD +190 0.3u
Honchak DEC -122 1.3u
Pena + Katona -120 1u

Good luck fellas!
 
3.2u Tavares +150
0.5u Tavares itd +285
2u Piechota +110
1.45u Ostovich +155
1.4u Bessette -135

Got a couple of more small bets I tailed that I haven't added to my spreadsheet yet, will post them in the pbp thread if I'm still awake then
 
Last edited:
1u = 20$

TUF27bets.jpg

Working a bunch of overtime so not a lot of tape study. Made some bets that were "safer" lol and tailed BB @ Sad on Triz there. BOL everyone.
 
6,67u Marquez - Chirico Under 2.5 @1,96
Freeroll Piechota to win 4,15u
3u Ostovich @2,75 (might hedge with de la Rosa SUB)

Will probably add some more small plays and depending on how the night is going I'll bet the ME
 
TUF 27 Finale Risk $5134.80

Brad Tavares (+150) vs Israel Adesanya $200.00 for $300.00
Not Israel Adesanya inside distance (-140) $140.00 for $100.00
Brad Tavares wins by submission (+745) $30.00 for $223.50
Brad Tavares wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+425) $25.00 for $106.25
Brad Tavares/Israel Adesanya time out in fight (+210) ~$26.00 for ~$54.60

Joe Giannetti (-155) vs Mike Trizano $155.00 for $100.00
Joe Giannetti wins by submission (+145) $30.00 for $43.50

Brad Katona/Jay Cucciniello Over 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00

Alex Caceres (-120) vs Martín Bravo $120.00 for $100.00
Alex Caceres wins by submission (+570) $20.00 for $114.00

Barb Honchak (-166) vs Roxanne Modafferi $332.00 for $200.00
Barb Honchak wins by 3 round decision (-120) $60.00 for $50.00
Roxanne Modafferi wins by TKO/KO (+1665) $30.00 for $499.50

Julian Marquez (-155) vs Alessio Di Chirico $465.00 for $300.00
Alessio Di Chirico (+145) vs Julian Marquez $200.00 for $290.00
Julian Marquez wins by TKO/KO (+170) $30.00 for $51.00
Julian Marquez/Alessio Di Chirico won’t start round 3 (-122) $48.80 for $40.00

Rachael Ostovich (+155) vs Montana De La Rosa $100.00 for $155.00
Rachael Ostovich wins inside distance (+405) $25.00 for $101.25
Rachael Ostovich wins in round 3 (+1600) $10.00 for $160.00
Rachael Osotovich wins by submission in round 3 (+1900) ~$13.00 for ~$247.00
Rachael Osotovich/Montana De La Rosa fight ends in submission (+188) ~$32.50 for ~$61.10

Luis Pena (-336) vs Richie Smullen $1,008.00 for $300.00
Luis Pena (-230) vs Richie Smullen $230.00 for $100.00
Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-140) $42.00 for $30.00
Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-143) ~$84.50 for ~$59.09
Luis Pena wins by TKO/KO (+150) $40.00 for $60.00
Luis Pena wins in round 1 (+145) $40.00 for $58.00
Luis Pena wins in round 3 (+900) $15.00 for $135.00
Luis Pena/Richie Smullen Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00

John Gunther (-105) vs Allan Zuniga $105.00 for $100.00

Tyler Diamond (-155) vs Bryce Mitchell $155.00 for $100.00

Matt Bessette (-160) vs Steven Peterson $160.00 for $100.00
Matt Bessette wins inside distance (+300) $35.00 for $105.00

Oskar Piechota (-165) vs Gerald Meerschaert $165.00 for $100.00
Oskar Piechota (-185) vs Gerald Meerschaert $185.00 for $100.00
Oskar Piechota wins in round 1 (+195) $30.00 for $58.50
Oskar Piechota wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+320) ~$26.00 for ~$83.20
Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00
Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert won’t start round 3 (-174) $87.00 for $50.00

Parlay:
Oskar Piechota (-220) vs Gerald Meerschaert + Luis Pena (-327) vs Richie Smullen $250.00 for $224.84
 
Added some last minute event props right before they pulled them:

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (+137) $40.00 for $54.80
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+385) $25.00 for $96.25
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+1137) $15.00 for $170.55
 
Added: John Gunther (-125) vs Allan Zuniga $250.00 for $200.00
 
A great number of bets to end up almost back to break even. Luis Pena was my big pre-fight winner along with the Roxanne Modafferi by TKO/KO prop. But I had to dig some big losers like Barb Honchak and Brad Tavares out of a hole with live betting to finish near to where I started. Have to conclude that Israel Adesanya is for real based on this performance. Very small loss of 0.32 units so little harm done.

TUF 27 Finale Results


Brad Tavares (+150) vs Israel Adesanya $200.00 for $300.00= -$200.00
Not Israel Adesanya inside distance (-140) $140.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Brad Tavares wins by submission (+745) $30.00 for $223.50= -$30.00
Brad Tavares wins by 5 round unanimous decision (+425) $25.00 for $106.25= -$25.00
Brad Tavares/Israel Adesanya time out in fight (+210) ~$26.00 for ~$54.60= ~$54.60
Live In-Play Israel Adesanya (-420) vs Brad Tavares $840.00 for $200.00= $200.00

Joe Giannetti (-155) vs Mike Trizano $155.00 for $100.00= -$155.00
Joe Giannetti wins by submission (+145) $30.00 for $43.50= -$30.00
Live In-Play Joe Giannetti (-160) vs Mike Trizano $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00

Brad Katona/Jay Cucciniello Over 2½ (-135) $135.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Alex Caceres (-120) vs Martín Bravo $120.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Alex Caceres wins by submission (+570) $20.00 for $114.00= -$20.00
Live In-Play Alex Caceres (+135) vs Martín Bravo $100.00 for $135.00= $135.00
Live In-Play Alex Caceres (-170) vs Martín Bravo $170.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Barb Honchak (-166) vs Roxanne Modafferi $332.00 for $200.00= -$332.00
Barb Honchak wins by 3 round decision (-120) $60.00 for $50.00= -$60.00
Roxanne Modafferi wins by TKO/KO (+1665) $30.00 for $499.50= $499.50
Live In-Play Roxanne Modafferi (-195) vs Barb Honchak $585.00 for $300.00= $300.00

Julian Marquez (-155) vs Alessio Di Chirico $465.00 for $300.00= -$465.00
Alessio Di Chirico (+145) vs Julian Marquez $200.00 for $290.00= $290.00
Julian Marquez wins by TKO/KO (+170) $30.00 for $51.00= -$30.00
Julian Marquez/Alessio Di Chirico won’t start round 3 (-122) $48.80 for $40.00= -$48.80

Rachael Ostovich (+155) vs Montana De La Rosa $100.00 for $155.00= -$100.00
Rachael Ostovich wins inside distance (+405) $25.00 for $101.25= -$25.00
Rachael Ostovich wins in round 3 (+1600) $10.00 for $160.00= -$10.00
Rachael Osotovich wins by submission in round 3 (+1900) ~$13.00 for ~$247.00= -~$13.00
Rachael Osotovich/Montana De La Rosa fight ends in submission (+188) ~$32.50 for ~$61.10= ~$61.10

Luis Pena (-336) vs Richie Smullen $1,008.00 for $300.00= $300.00
Luis Pena (-230) vs Richie Smullen $230.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-140) $42.00 for $30.00= $30.00
Luis Pena wins inside the distance (-143) ~$84.50 for ~$59.09= ~$59.09
Luis Pena wins by TKO/KO (+150) $40.00 for $60.00= -$40.00
Luis Pena wins in round 1 (+145) $40.00 for $58.00= $58.00
Luis Pena wins in round 3 (+900) $15.00 for $135.00= -$15.00
Luis Pena/Richie Smullen Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00= $100.00

John Gunther (-105) vs Allan Zuniga $105.00 for $100.00= $100.00
John Gunther (-125) vs Allan Zuniga $250.00 for $200.00= $200.00

Tyler Diamond (-155) vs Bryce Mitchell $155.00 for $100.00= -$155.00

Matt Bessette (-160) vs Steven Peterson $160.00 for $100.00= -$160.00
Matt Bessette wins inside distance (+300) $35.00 for $105.00= -$35.00

Oskar Piechota (-165) vs Gerald Meerschaert $165.00 for $100.00= -$165.00
Oskar Piechota (-185) vs Gerald Meerschaert $185.00 for $100.00= -$185.00
Oskar Piechota wins in round 1 (+195) $30.00 for $58.50= -$30.00
Oskar Piechota wins by KO/TKO/DQ in round 1 (+320) ~$26.00 for ~$83.20= -~$26.00
Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert Under 1½ (-125) $125.00 for $100.00= -$125.00
Oskar Piechota/Gerald Meerschaert won’t start round 3 (-174) $87.00 for $50.00= $50.00

Fights to end in KO/TKO over 3½ (+137) $40.00 for $54.80= -$40.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 4½ (+385) $25.00 for $96.25= -$25.00
Fights to end in KO/TKO over 5½ (+1137) $15.00 for $170.55= -$15.00

Parlay:
Oskar Piechota (-220) vs Gerald Meerschaert + Luis Pena (-327) vs Richie Smullen $250.00 for $224.84= -$250.00
-----
Sub-Total= -$168.30
Sub-Total= ~$135.79

Total Loss= -$32.51
 
0.4u Tavares DEC +330 -0.4u
0.1u Tavares SUB +955 -0.1u

1u Piechota +155 -1u
0.5u Meerchaert +205 +1.025u

NET: -0.475u

Went back and forth for days on whether I wanted to freeroll Piechota or Meerchaert. I picked the wrong guy lol. Also resisted the urge to place a real bet on Tavares thankfully. Insane performance by Isreal.
 
6,67u Marquez - Chirico Under 2.5 @1,96
Freeroll Piechota to win 4,15u
3u Ostovich @2,75 (might hedge with de la Rosa SUB)

Will probably add some more small plays and depending on how the night is going I'll bet the ME
Lol went -9,67u on my pre bets.

I added these bets inbetween and during the fights and posted all of them in the PBP discussion as well and still ended up with a nice 4,95u profit:

3u Roxanne @2,35
2,33u Roxanne @2,18
1,5u Gunther @1,57
1,75u Mitchell @2,0

1u Cucciniello @4,25
0,5u Peterson DEC @4,5 (Thanks to @wack3d for this one!)
1,25u Trizano @2,61
2,5u Adesanya @1,98
2u Adesanya-Tavares Goes the distance @1,5


When the odds came out I was thinking about betting Tavares at 2,75 or so, but I didn't want to get burned by Israel again, so I decided to wait and thought I could get Adesanya at about evens or maybe even as a dog just before the fight and that's exactly what happened and I happily took him at 1,98. What I regret the most is my 3u bet on Ostovich, the bet didn't feel right and I was thinking about cashing it out just before the fight started, but because of my stubbornness I didn't.

Hope everyone had a profitable event and BOL with your UFC 226 bets!
 
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