UFC 226

Well the circle jerk is Felder by decision, so throw a few units on Perry by KO.
Don't forget the Vannata circlejerk, I'm the only one who thinks he's going to get killed by pressure pace and leg kicks so toss a dime on Klose and thank me later.
 
Does Stylebenders performance last night give anyone some confidence in Dan Hooker's ability to stuff the TD?
 
Does Stylebenders performance last night give anyone some confidence in Dan Hooker's ability to stuff the TD?
No, Tavares is not a great offensive takedown artist - Durinho is a thick 155er fighting a gangly Hooker... Durinho has so many techniques to employ that he doesnt even need a takedown to get a sub, can snag an assortment of leg/foot locks.
 
I actually think this is a fairly difficult card to bet.

I was going to be heavy on Max.

I see value in Cormier.

I actually see value in Emily Whitmire, which is terrifying. Moyle should be fighting at 105 and whitmire is coming down from 125.

If I knew Lando corrected his cardio issues I'd really like him in this spot.

What's everyone's "lock" of the night???

Agreed. Very tricky.

I see value on DC as well.

With Whitmire, she only went back up to 125 for the show, where she got womanhandled, so I don't think she will be a gigantic force at 115. I really struggle to think of what she does well, and she doesn't seem athletic. Moyle, you can at least say she is a solid ground fighter, and Emily has losses on the ground..
 
Don't forget the Vannata circlejerk, I'm the only one who thinks he's going to get killed by pressure pace and leg kicks so toss a dime on Klose and thank me later.

I bet Holloway, Burns, Klose, Griffin and Cormier with no reservations.

I think Klose should be the favorite but I dont think Vannata bout to get killed lol. Sounds like Vannata wants to pace himself, he say cardio isnt the problem(lol), pace is. If thats the case then maybe he wont blowout Klose in rd1 to pace himself then still be gassed going into rd3.
 
Unibet has Miocic to finish via KO/TKO/sub +175, tiny bit better than most books
 
Perry/Felder o1.5 at -172 has value for sure.
 
If anybody is feeling FOMO for not betting Izzy last night, Gokhan Saki is like the same thing

--Both obviously talented kickboxers
--Both saw adversity adjusting to MMA in early fight (Izzy = ground, Saki = cardio)
--Both opened as solid faves and the market relentelessly bet them to tiny faves bc recent performance

Izzy more physical talented, but Saki is more proven. He held his own kickboxing vs prime Ubereem and regularly fought bigger dudes. And the big difference is that Izzy had a solid opponent whereas Saki is fighting a bum who has just as bad ground game and cardio as himself.

I don't get how anybody believes Rountree has anything close to a 50% chance here. It's going to be a standup fight and he is going to be significantly worse.
 
If anybody is feeling FOMO for not betting Izzy last night, Gokhan Saki is like the same thing

--Both obviously talented kickboxers
--Both saw adversity adjusting to MMA in early fight (Izzy = ground, Saki = cardio)
--Both opened as solid faves and the market relentelessly bet them to tiny faves bc recent performance

Izzy more physical talented, but Saki is more proven. He held his own kickboxing vs prime Ubereem and regularly fought bigger dudes. And the big difference is that Izzy had a solid opponent whereas Saki is fighting a bum who has just as bad ground game and cardio as himself.

I don't get how anybody believes Rountree has anything close to a 50% chance here. It's going to be a standup fight and he is going to be significantly worse.

I ended up taking Saki at -130 and now every tme I thnk about ths fight I want to add more.
 
If anybody is feeling FOMO for not betting Izzy last night, Gokhan Saki is like the same thing

--Both obviously talented kickboxers
--Both saw adversity adjusting to MMA in early fight (Izzy = ground, Saki = cardio)
--Both opened as solid faves and the market relentelessly bet them to tiny faves bc recent performance

Izzy more physical talented, but Saki is more proven. He held his own kickboxing vs prime Ubereem and regularly fought bigger dudes. And the big difference is that Izzy had a solid opponent whereas Saki is fighting a bum who has just as bad ground game and cardio as himself.

I don't get how anybody believes Rountree has anything close to a 50% chance here. It's going to be a standup fight and he is going to be significantly worse.

Agree. I'm pretty big on Saki too and glad I waited. He should be -180 to -200 here.
 
I was leaning Chiesa anyway, but on the Luke Thomas show just now he said Pettis was moving kinda sluggish AND that Pettis had BADLY chapped lips. This is a LW so kinda weird that Pettis would have to dehydrate himself so badly to make weight (unlike when he was at FW) but it looks like there's at least a chance it's true. I hit Chiesa ML for 2u and Chiesa sub for .5u.
Haven’t been able to decide which side of this fight I like. Gonna tail you I think. Good luck! I’m also having a tough time picking Klose/Vanatta
 
Haven’t been able to decide which side of this fight I like. Gonna tail you I think. Good luck! I’m also having a tough time picking Klose/Vanatta

Chiesa's weight miss and him looking a bit bad has me a bit nervous. I still like him to win, but can't go big on Mike now. I'm 2u and wish it was 1 or 1.5. I'll live with it but he looked pretty drained yesterday.

I think value is on Klose at current odds. Fight is close to a pick 'em to me maybe VERY slightly favor Lando but Klose at +165 was worth 1u to me.
 
For those who like Ngannou:

I'd look at his rd 2 prop at +500. I think slimmed down Francis may take his time a bit and not go all out to start. He's done it before and I think it's likely he's conscious of pace here after his last fight. Lewis doesn't generally go ballistic right away either.

Yeah more likely Francis finds the KO in rd 1 but I think rd 2 at +500 has WAY more value than rd 1 at -105.
 
If anybody is feeling FOMO for not betting Izzy last night, Gokhan Saki is like the same thing

--Both obviously talented kickboxers
--Both saw adversity adjusting to MMA in early fight (Izzy = ground, Saki = cardio)
--Both opened as solid faves and the market relentelessly bet them to tiny faves bc recent performance

Izzy more physical talented, but Saki is more proven. He held his own kickboxing vs prime Ubereem and regularly fought bigger dudes. And the big difference is that Izzy had a solid opponent whereas Saki is fighting a bum who has just as bad ground game and cardio as himself.

I don't get how anybody believes Rountree has anything close to a 50% chance here. It's going to be a standup fight and he is going to be significantly worse.
Before his UFC debut Saki didn't fight for over 2 and a half years, now without the ringrust and hopefully with better cardio we could see a much better performance from Saki here. I just hope the injury and operation he had isn't going to play a factor.

I've seen Saki fight since I was a kid and he fought the best heavyweight kickboxers for over 10 years. He fought Bad Hari (multiple times), Spong, Peter Aerts, Overeem, Bonjasky, Schilt, Verhoeven and a lot more of the best heavyweights in the world.

If Saki is in shape and hasn't grown old overnight he's going to completely destroy Rountree here. Or Rountree magically needs to learn how to wrestle, because otherwise he's going night night.

Already got a total of 6 units on Saki's ML, KO and RD1 and I'm thinking about adding more.
 
I know the line has moved some but Hall +335 strikes me as kind of an insane price
 
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