UFN 135 - Gaethje vs. Vick - Lincoln, NE

Barbarena is crazy at those odds.

I know Jake is shot and has the worst UFC record in the last 5 years.. but he was somehow competitive in some of his losses too (like when he knocked down Wonderboy)
Honestly the only loss that concerns me is against Saunders. Everybody else he has fought (win or lose) was several levels above Barbarena.
Damn... Rory, Lawler, Kelvin, Wonderboy, Saff, Masvidal and even Perry. That is a murders row. Not much shame in losing to those guys.

I know the counter-argument is the way he loses lately (KTFO left and right) but I dont think Barbarena should be that juiced at all.

I see value in Ellenberger as a dog.
LoL what value ? this guy shoudlnt fight anymore. Barb will win
 
Honestly a well-placed body shot can shut down pretty much any man. He did eat a couple to the head with no issue.

Jake can still throw some hands, and I don't trust Barb's striking. Worth a few bucks
That's why i said it may have just got him in the wrong spot. I don't think his body is up to it anymore however. Barb is nothing special but if you can't beat a washed Saunders you aren't beating many on the roster
 
LoL what value ? this guy shoudlnt fight anymore. Barb will win

Yo man, I'm gonna stop with the hate towards to you and try to do it again as others did.

Betting Barbarena at -550 has no value. To have any profit on these kind of odds, you have to win at least 6 out of 7 bets at -550.
Betting someone at +450 would require you to win only 1 out of 5 bets at those odds to get profit.

Trust me, too many people fucked up by playing -500 "locks", even on this forum. Trying to get find value especially on big dogs works a lot better than playing juiced dogs. This is my long term strategy on boxing and it works like magic, anyone that follows my tips around here and on discord knows that.

BOL man
 
Yo man, I'm gonna stop with the hate towards to you and try to do it again as others did.

Betting Barbarena at -550 has no value. To have any profit on these kind of odds, you have to win at least 6 out of 7 bets at -550.
Betting someone at +450 would require you to win only 1 out of 5 bets at those odds to get profit.

Trust me, too many people fucked up by playing -500 "locks", even on this forum. Trying to get find value especially on big dogs works a lot better than playing juiced dogs. This is my long term strategy on boxing and it works like magic, anyone that follows my tips around here and on discord knows that.

BOL man

The odds don't dictate whether something is a value bet. A -500 bet can be so much value that it's an absolute max bet. Betting -550 shots could be what someone is comfortable with. There are guys on betfair that exclusively lay 1000/1 shots and win quite a lot. That would be the same as backing a -100000. This is max bet value in certain situations.
 
Very confident in Gall

Confident in Dober

Rest of the card is a crap shoot from my stand point
 
Very confident in Gall

Confident in Dober

Rest of the card is a crap shoot from my stand point

I felt like the Dober line was a little steep last I saw. -210 I believe? I feel good about him too, just not at that price
 
Barbarena is crazy at those odds.

I know Jake is shot and has the worst UFC record in the last 5 years.. but he was somehow competitive in some of his losses too (like when he knocked down Wonderboy)
Honestly the only loss that concerns me is against Saunders. Everybody else he has fought (win or lose) was several levels above Barbarena.
Damn... Rory, Lawler, Kelvin, Wonderboy, Saff, Masvidal and even Perry. That is a murders row. Not much shame in losing to those guys.

I know the counter-argument is the way he loses lately (KTFO left and right) but I dont think Barbarena should be that juiced at all.

I see value in Ellenberger as a dog.

I mentioned earlier, but Barb is favored over Ellenberger so much higher than some really solid fighters were. Furthermore, Barb has higher odds than he had over any of his opponents, including someone like Proctor. I can't imagine the people who were betting Barb pushing him above -500.
 
I mentioned earlier, but Barb is favored over Ellenberger so much higher than some really solid fighters were. Furthermore, Barb has higher odds than he had over any of his opponents, including someone like Proctor. I can't imagine the people who were betting Barb pushing him above -500.

Those other fighters weren't fighting the Ellenberger of today. The argument that Barberena is higher than any other opponent is a bad argument. At this point, if it was Perry going in there with Ellenberger, Perry would be around -1000.
 
Those other fighters weren't fighting the Ellenberger of today. The argument that Barberena is higher than any other opponent is a bad argument. At this point, if it was Perry going in there with Ellenberger, Perry would be around -1000.

I highly doubt that.
 
You missed my point completely
Your point was silly, essentially all you were dooing is appealing to the 'consistency' of name-brand fighters like Jon Jones. This is the sort of crap that had Cejudo priced @ +400 where he probably should have been around +150.
 
Am I throwing away $$ with this bet?

I never bet sports (play ALOT of poker)
But I like to gamble and like parlays


Right now I got
George Sullivan over gall
Andre fili over Michael johnson
Vick over Gaethje
Warlley Alves Over James Krause
And Jake Ellenberger (lol) over Barberena


$249 nets me 20k lol

Worth it?
Or should I do $125 and switch Jake and Barberena for a lesser payday
 
I highly doubt that.

Yeah not that high. But...

It is honestly to the point where Jake shouldn't be getting sanctioned to fight. He seems to slur so much more than he ever did and is just obviously a physical shell of what he was.

Also, stylistically Barbarena is tough as nails and has shown a damn good chin. And Jake's volume sucks. So now we are looking at Jake most likely needing to stop a guy with strikes that's never been KO'd or TKO'd because Jake isn't busy enough to win a decision.

I just think Jake is straight up done. No way would I bet Barb at -500 or whatever, but not gonna throw away $ on Jake either. Pass for me.
 
Am I throwing away $$ with this bet?

I never bet sports (play ALOT of poker)
But I like to gamble and like parlays


Right now I got
George Sullivan over gall
Andre fili over Michael johnson
Vick over Gaethje
Warlley Alves Over James Krause
And Jake Ellenberger (lol) over Barberena


$249 nets me 20k lol

Worth it?
Or should I do $125 and switch Jake and Barberena for a lesser payday

If you can waste $249 you can do what you want lol. But no. The odds on a parlay like that are so high for good reason. 4/5 hit and you get $0, and you have major tossups and major dogs in there.
 
Anyone like Perez over Sanchez? Perez striking ain't special at all but he did he some hard shots from Anders. Seems like he might the kind of guy to outlast Sanchez's onslaught and take over when he tires.
 
Trust me, too many people fucked up by playing -500 "locks", even on this forum.

I remember when I parlayed almost all my bets with Adriano Martins when he fought Kajan Johnson for "a free extra few $$". Afterwards had to scramble to throw more money in so I could try to break even.
 
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