UFC 231 Holloway vs Ortega

I like the odds on Ansaroff. Will win the striking for sure and much better cardio so will improve as the fight goes on. Reasonably mobile so (hopefully) won't give up TD's to easy all the time, especially as the fight goes on and Gadelha gasses. Has looked better every fight since being with ATT (who've trained fighters to beat Gadelha before), hasn't lost since 2014 (Kish fight was a robbery). Last fight was also vs a grappler so has been preparing for TD threat for a while (she handled it well and got stronger as the fight went on - perfect for this bout?). Drinks the essence of Nunes right from the cup.

Meanwhile Gadelha has terrible carido, looked not so great in her last two fights, seems a little unfocused: running her own camp, talked about wanting a 'break' after the Android fight (not a great sign IMO), getting fake boobs, thirsting for Ortega, etc. So I feel it's a good time to try and catch the fade. Am hoping Ansaroff gets up as high as 4.0 if the degen #elite #locksonly parlay money starts rolling in on Gadelha. Looking to bet 0.5u-1u on her.

I was trying to justify a bet on Ansaroff for a long while as well but the strength of Gadelhas grappling is a major concern, she took Joann down 11 times between their two fights and attempted 29 takedwons, 16 in the 3 round fight. Obv Joanna is much harder to takedown than Ansaroff(Andrade went 2/10), Gadelha is a much better grappler than Markos and Markos got a hook in. Gadelha might even get the SUB. Ansaroff threw 300 strikes aganst Hill but only 130 against Markos. Hill wasnt trying to grapple but Markos attempted 11 takedowns, Ansaroffs ability to strike will be even more limited here imo. Ansaroff also loves to kick a lot which ma play against her staying upright. Gadelha getting rocked by Esparza was def not a good look but I'mma say that was an outlier, not something to be expected. Gadelhas cardio is the biggest concern for me as far as her weaknesses go.

When Max looks fine at weigh he'll go bigger fav imo, I imagine a lot of folks who're putting big money down want to see him weigh in before they bet on him.
 
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Sounds like you haven't learned bankroll management. TIme spent watching MMA rarely turns into good capping by itself. I've known a range of guys who've had extensive experience in the sport (A few long-term UFC refs), and yet were both crap gamblers and not good at predicting anything much.


Yeah. Fully agreed. Oli'll probably have the aggression to clonk Gunni upside the head, or walk into a counter and get dropped for a choke.
It's god given ability
 
Bigfoot Silva never had to worry about strikes in his career after the shots he withstood from Hunt in their fight that went to a draw

I do think that a 100% Max should be more like -200 rather than -100 though
Except that was at HW where KO rates are far higher and more importantly Bigfoot had been KO'd in 4 of his 5 losses before that plus in the Hunt fight rocked badly repeatedly.

In comparison the worst we've seen Max is perhaps lightly stunned once or twice.

Max clearly has a great chin and I really don't see how you can consider it in the favour of Ortega at all.
 
Under 1.5 +100 for BC/Gunni is awful tempting. Cowboys aggressive blitz either gets him the ko or gets him counter punched to a sub n' club.
It's a nice prop, already on it, small tho
 
Anyone who talks about Frankie Edgar like he’s a journeyman is clueless. Ive been following mma for over 15 years, I just placed my first bet for Khabib beating Mcgregor, & have gone on to triple my money since then (hit big with Anthony Smith, Yair, Ngannou, Overeem, & a few parlays that worked out for me, & of course lost a few too). I’m big on Ortega this fight, most confident I’ve been since Khabib destroying Conor. Holloway doesn’t look right, mark these words, I’ll come back & rub it in your face after Saturday.
Edgar was way past his prime in that fight and fought pretty badly. Repetitive combinations and afraid to grapple.

Anyone who has to say stuff like 'mark these words' is just trying to add some additional dramatic weight to what they are saying cause their actual argument is so weak. If all you can say is 'Max doesn't look right' then you clearly haven't got decent justification for your opinion.
 
I don't, I've seen the fight over 5 times and don't agree at all with that he was getting soundly outstruck. Frankie landed a couple more strikes than him but Ortega was slipping and deflecting a lot of them on the gloves, his defense looked a lot better than it did in the Moicano/Swanson fights. Ortega is also a slow starter and takes a while for him to get his groove going, the fight only lasted 4 minutes and he was able to find his opening, which was a complete fluke according to the Ortega haters

Yeah can't really read too much into Edgar outstriking him for round 1. I don't think Ortega has ever won the first round of any UFC fights
 
It's god given ability
Yep. I've gotten to the point where I just kneejerk on hot takes, opinions and messages from god (Smith Sub3) and do like 20 mins of tape a card.
 
I was trying to justify a bet on Ansaroff for a long while as well but the strength of Gadelhas grappling is a major concern, she took Joann down 11 times between their two fights and attempted 29 takedwons, 16 in the 3 round fight. Obv Joanna is much harder to takedown than Ansaroff(Andrade went 2/10), Gadelha is a much better grappler than Markos and Markos got a hook in. Gadelha might even get the SUB. Ansaroff threw 300 strikes aganst Hill but only 130 against Markos. Hill wasnt trying to grapple but Markos attempted 11 takedowns, Ansaroffs ability to strike will be even more limited here imo. Ansaroff also loves to kick a lot which ma play against her staying upright. Gadelha getting rocked by Esparza was def not a good look but I'mma say that was an outlier, not something to be expected. Gadelhas cardio is the biggest concern for me as far as her weaknesses go.

When Max looks fine at weigh he'll go bigger fav imo, I imagine a lot of folks who're putting big money down want to see him weigh in before they bet on him.

Yeah Gadelha may well go out and plough her but we're talking about someone starting to close towards being a 4.0 underdog so obviously it's 'risky'. I just think the odds justify the risk, for a smallish bet at least.

"Ansaroff threw 300 strikes aganst Hill but only 130 against Markos" - I like that, it suggests deliberate restraint vs a grappler to minimise the takedown risk. (very small) confidence increase ;)
 
I enjoyed Barry's posts a lot more than I enjoy Kyle's verbal diarrhea :( I'd take a good troll over a very low quality poster any day.

He posts way too much and way too long agreed. Would be a good poster if he reduced the volume of posts in terms of amount and size
 
Yeah Gadelha may well go out and plough her but we're talking about someone starting to close towards being a 4.0 underdog so obviously it's 'risky'. I just think the odds justify the risk, for a smallish bet at least.

"Ansaroff threw 300 strikes aganst Hill but only 130 against Markos" - I like that, it suggests deliberate restraint vs a grappler to minimise the takedown risk. (very small) confidence increase ;)

I have no bet on this fight but I would reconsider if Ansaroff price gets better.
 
I'll try to add the other side here:
Ortega fights a lot like boxers do. Meaning that he fucking does nothing for the first half of the fight on purpose.

In boxing they have a lot of rounds to study each other and even the average boxer is not showing you his hands until the middle rounds. I don't know if you sparred with seasoned boxer or even the average Jo who had been at the boxing gym for years, but as a kickboxer enthusiast myself it was kinda shoking the first couple of times. So we agree to only box with the guy - You know I do my game pushing forward getting into the fight right away. He stays there looking, absorb many of the shots on his guard, slipping the occasional power shot, moving away from some of them. But he is mainly blocking them or checking with the inside if his glove. We agree to spar for how many rounds we can endure, no limits, 80-90% power. First round went well for me. Second round - disaster. Fucking guy learned my timing for 3 minutes, learned my tendencies, how I react, how I block etc etc. He had my number for the rest of the sparring session. I gave up after 6 rounds (3 min rounds). He hit me in my body so many times I did not have anything left... I learned a bit of his moves towards the end and started to counter them but was so winded that it was too little too late.

In MMA it is so rare to se somebody giving up rounds, there are just 3 rounds, you can't do it like if there were 12, too thin margin for error. So we are conditioned to judge somebody that loses rounds regularly that he don't know what to do, we don't think maybe this is his plan all along?
Just offer an opinion.
Thats not uncommon in MMA at all. Aldo, Shevchenko, Anderson Silva etc. They all go slow to get the timing then open up with hard counters. Difference is they do it within one round. Only time Ortega did that was vs Frankie who was throwing the same left to the body and overhand right combination a ridiculous number of times. Its one thing to give up a round but Ortega gives up far more than that regularly and against a competent diverse striker like Max could spend the whole fight giving up rounds and still have no success. If Ortega tries that vs Max he's gonna lose the decision easily.
 
I favor Ortega over 95% of FW in the world.

I favor a healthy Holloway over 100% of FW in the world.

Holloway can win a striking battle here, and Ortega can still be considered a relatively talented striker.

Both can be true and this is how I see the fight playing out.
 
Yea I mean the Ortega vs Halloway arguement has been beaten to death but here’s where I stand. Those in favor of Ortega seem to be primarily basing their confidence On ortega on what they see to be issues with how Max is talking In interviews. Let’s all agree no one knows if there’s any issue or not. People have said cte but that’s just rediculous. Ortega has been hyped for a while and people are really
Overvaluing that Edgar win. Edgar was much smaller than him and got hit clean w a elbow and finished w the uppercut but with all those fights and his age that result was not entirely shocking. Max has eaten some bombs from aldo and smiled through it so I don’t imagine Ortega’s standup can stop him. Now as far as his jui jitsu goes its top notch and he has stayed in fights and finished all of them with the smallest of openings but I just think Halloway is too smart of a fighter to be caught in anything and i don’t think he will get taken down. He has a 83 percent takedown defense and Ortega has a 14 percent success rate on takedowns. It will be interesting and I’m not saying max blows him out or anything I just feel Like most people think Ortega will dominate this fight and just catch max w something easily.
 
Anyone going to take a stab at Shevchenko wins inside distance +178? I think I might...
 


Comment from 6 years ago, "man this guy shouldnt get hit in the head any more..............i mean this guy makes forrest gump look like einstein." Damn Max has had CTE mixed with Alzheimers with a sprinkle of dementia for a while now lol. Dont know how the fuck he survived McGregor and then beat Aldo with brain damage.
 
Those commission medical suspensions are always over the top, I think Anders just got the standard suspension for a TKO loss. Anders said he went on a 10 day vacation after the fight then got right back to training.

Anders got tired because he was implementing a gameplan that was very physically taxing and he had 6 days to prepare, he also came into fight week about 220 lbs. Besides that fight I've never seen Anders really gas out, his cardio is solid, highly doubt he'll gas vs Theodorou.

Yeah I don't really think Ander's is going to come into this fight looking improved but I'm not interested in that. What I am interested is his ability to perform. Anders has the skills and athleticism to win this fight but he needs to be on point, he can't have anything less than a good performance.

Watching that Machida fight again, it's so bad. Anders just waits and waits and waits. There were moments in the fight were Anders would just stare at him for like 2 minutes and do nothing. His output and urgency was pathetic in that fight. Anders just seemed like he wanted to counter the whole fight.

Just knowing that Anders is capable of having a performance like he did against Machida really lowers his stock in my eyes. The fight was very close, the rounds were very close, it could of gone either way, IDK how to score it. Should have been an easy KO win for Anders, just needed more aggression.

Theodorou's striking is probably more similar to Machida's than any other of Anders opponents. One of the things I do like about Theodorou is he's consistent, he doesn't have bad performances, if he loses its because his opponent is better.

Anders vs Theodorou all comes down to how Anders performs, I know what Theodorou is going to do but I can't be sure about Anders, he's saying all the right things though.

I bet on Anders against Santos and appreciated how he fought. He was going for it but just took way too much damage en route to that exhausting stoppage. It was brutal but I was impressed by it, he fought as hard as one could expect from him in that spot. I actually live-bet him again after one of those rounds because he was doing what I had hoped he would do. Not that it worked out that time.. but yeah I don't think he's going to sit back and let Elias run around and pick at him.

I haven't pulled the trigger on Anders yet either but I really want to. I just hate thinking about that crowd/judging (literally a hometown fight for Elias)

Also what was up with Elias in that Trevor Smith fight? He looked a lot worse and seemed to gas quicker than previous fights.
 
Last fight I was too focused on the KO, it's all about experience, we'll see how he does against a natural 205er, we won't be wrestling, we'll bang it out, I've done two camps for him, luckily the hamstring injury didn't take long to heal, the tear was huge

 
Ansaroff dec +365 1.1u

Good enough line for me
 
Got injured, went through surgery, busted my knee, for me it's all about strategy, I couldn't help Conor that camp because of my knee, I will help him next time, I would have accepted any fight, he's wild, chases, reaches and capitalize, I feel like 165 would be great for me

 
He's so basic, it's easy to train for him, last fight the guy was better than me, I need to get better, I'm better in my head, I over trained my last camp

 
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