Bellator 198 - Fedor vs Mir - Rosemont Illinois

I’ll enjoy seeing fedor pulverize sonnen

Please give me good odds on fedor

thats a really bad fight for sonnen. he wont be able to get or keep fedor down and the russians problem is punch resistance and chael cant punch
 
I can't believe Fuddor ended it so quickly. Anyway, made $50 off it. Money to play UFC 224. I feel bad for Mir though.


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Frank has been my favorite fighter since he entered the UFC. I wanted him to win tonight, but it is what it is. Don't feel too bad for him. He was sooooo close to being done and not getting another shot before subbing Hardonk in his "one last shot" fight.

He now has an estimated net worth of $9m and isn't fighting because he needs to at all. Feel bad for the guys busting their ass to fight 4 times per year and make $60k before taxes and expenses LOL.
 
I'm up 85u this year, 22% ROI, I bet a lot of props!

Anyone got a stream for the bellator main card? I have so much action on this epic card I have to see it

The main card bouts should be up on bellator.com tomorrow. Should take no more than 15 minutes to watch all of them.
 
Frank has been my favorite fighter since he entered the UFC. I wanted him to win tonight, but it is what it is. Don't feel too bad for him. He was sooooo close to being done and not getting another shot before subbing Hardonk in his "one last shot" fight.

He now has an estimated net worth of $9m and isn't fighting because he needs to at all. Feel bad for the guys busting their ass to fight 4 times per year and make $60k before taxes and expenses LOL.

I just mean that I like Frank Mir and this was one of those fights where I didn't want to see either guy lose. That whole main card was sick. 4 first round finishes, one 2nd rd finish. And 3 first rd subs in the prelims. I wish there were props for how many fights end in sub on 5d.
 
Did great on the undercard, but really went degen on Frank Mir. Should have stuck with the under 1½ only in the main event like I initially suggested.

Bellator 198
Risk $1448.50

Frank Mir (-137) vs Fedor Emelianenko $685.00 for $500.00= -$685.00
Frank Mir wins in round 1 or 2 (+214) ~$93.50 for ~$200.09= -~$93.50
Frank Mir/Fedor Emelianenko Under 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00= $100.00
Frank Mir wins by 3 round decision (+548) $40.00 for $219.20= -$40.00

Emmanuel Sanchez/Sam Sicilia Under 2½ (+210) $50.00 for $105.00= $105.00

Rafael Lovato Jr. (-300) vs Gerald Harris $300.00 for $100.00= $100.00

Dillon Danis/Kyle Walker Under 1½ (-140) $140.00 for $100.00= $100.00
-----
Sub-Total= -$320.00
Sub-Total= -~$93.50

Total Loss= -$413.50
 
Mir fought like a complete moron, 40 pound weight advantage and just gives it away.

But we have to remember that Fedor basically made his career fighting large guys and one of his biggest advantages has always been his speed over these slow, heavy guys. Couple that with Mir's typical strength not being to grind guys with his weight and being a pretty damn slow fighter. Not to be captain hindsight, but I think this was a very favorable matchup for Fedor.
 
But we have to remember that Fedor basically made his career fighting large guys and one of his biggest advantages has always been his speed over these slow, heavy guys. Couple that with Mir's typical strength not being to grind guys with his weight and being a pretty damn slow fighter. Not to be captain hindsight, but I think this was a very favorable matchup for Fedor.
I was huge on Fedor, and that was one of the most literal coinflips I've seen in this sport. Either guy could have won it and just hammering the +-odds side was probably the better idea.
 
I was huge on Fedor, and that was one of the most literal coinflips I've seen in this sport. Either guy could have won it and just hammering the +-odds side was probably the better idea.

I slightly favored Fedor. If I wasn't concerned with his age and depreciating ability to take a shot, I'd have had him higher. The faster guy is just more likely to land early, and Fedor isn't a stranger to starting fast. I also feel that you pretty much have to put his lights out to where Mir will shell up after taking a good one.
 
I eat my crow, 2u on Mir what kind of an asshole am I? Fuck that was stupid. I ended up okay thanks to Sanchez and another play our two, the under partially bailed me out as well, but that played out exactly like we all knew it would and I still laid the juice on the favorite anyway. I deserve to eat some crow for that.

Btw I've had to eat a lot of crow in my day. Whoever made that saying up could only use crow of an example of something bad to eat? Like there's nothing deeper to that saying other than some dude was like eat the worst thing I can think of and it was a fucking crow? How about eating a beet? What about an owl? How about eating shit? There's so much other stuff that I'd rather not eat than a crow. I'd rather not eat a koala bear, eat koala bear motherfucker.

Ahhh, never mind. Congrats Fedor backers.
 
I slightly favored Fedor. If I wasn't concerned with his age and depreciating ability to take a shot, I'd have had him higher. The faster guy is just more likely to land early, and Fedor isn't a stranger to starting fast. I also feel that you pretty much have to put his lights out to where Mir will shell up after taking a good one.

Mir actually landed first, and the punch he hit Fedor with was literally probably a few centimeters away from being flush and ending Fedor's night. Fedor didn't look noticeably faster than Mir at all imo. I really think that everyone who said it was a coinflip on who landed first clean was spot on, and the coin came up Fedor this time. If these two guys fought 100 times in this state, I'd literally think each one would win about 50, and about 80 times it would be in the first round.
 
I love how you guys act like hammering the + money in a silly heavyweight slug fest is a good idea. Maybe just pass on it? Makes no sense even bet on a fight like that.

I mean they both almost finished each other
 
I love how you guys act like hammering the + money in a silly heavyweight slug fest is a good idea. Maybe just pass on it? Makes no sense even bet on a fight like that.

I mean they both almost finished each other

Betting the u1.5 was the play all along at very marginal juice. It opened -145 and didn't move too much off that. It should have been -400 or worse. I think this thread actually profited a lot more off that than by betting Fedor. Someone, somewhere was betting the o1.5 because normally we move Bellator lines pretty substantially if we are all mostly on the same thing here. And we didn't on this one. It closed I think only -155 or -160.
 
I love how you guys act like hammering the + money in a silly heavyweight slug fest is a good idea. Maybe just pass on it? Makes no sense even bet on a fight like that.

I mean they both almost finished each other
Because in 50/50 fights like that in the long run you will profit if you put money on the underdog
 
I love how you guys act like hammering the + money in a silly heavyweight slug fest is a good idea. Maybe just pass on it? Makes no sense even bet on a fight like that.

I mean they both almost finished each other

Most are calling it a coinflip, yet it doesn't make sense to bet + odds on a coinflip? It's funny how people act high and mighty about betting this fight, yet how many people were going deep on Rampage over Sonnen?

Mir actually landed first, and the punch he hit Fedor with was literally probably a few centimeters away from being flush and ending Fedor's night. Fedor didn't look noticeably faster than Mir at all imo. I really think that everyone who said it was a coinflip on who landed first clean was spot on, and the coin came up Fedor this time. If these two guys fought 100 times in this state, I'd literally think each one would win about 50, and about 80 times it would be in the first round.

Mir was having to bullrush and lunge in. Fedor was able to backup and evade while throwing. Mir always looks slow, sluggish, and telegraphed to me. Fedor obviously gets hit still and always has. He doesn't mind a firefight, but I think his hands are moving much better and he can throw from different angles.

I still think Fedor would win more than 50%. I just think he's more likely to land and follow up. I think we're splitting hairs at this point as I'm calling it more around 60/40.
 
Most are calling it a coinflip, yet it doesn't make sense to bet + odds on a coinflip? It's funny how people act high and mighty about betting this fight, yet how many people were going deep on Rampage over Sonnen?



Mir was having to bullrush and lunge in. Fedor was able to backup and evade while throwing. Mir always looks slow, sluggish, and telegraphed to me. Fedor obviously gets hit still and always has. He doesn't mind a firefight, but I think his hands are moving much better and he can throw from different angles.

I still think Fedor would win more than 50%. I just think he's more likely to land and follow up. I think we're splitting hairs at this point as I'm calling it more around 60/40.
55/45 and we got a deal. I'm pretending to be Rick from Pawnstars rn.
 
Because in 50/50 fights like that in the long run you will profit if you put money on the underdog

Not if you are betting +110 juice on a fight that seems 50/50 and is actually 40/60

The whole dog or pass mentality is super dumb. Just because you cannot discern which side is more likely does not make it a true coinflip
 
Not if you are betting +110 juice on a fight that seems 50/50 and is actually 40/60

The whole dog or pass mentality is super dumb. Just because you cannot discern which side is more likely does not make it a true coinflip

Then it's your capping that's off, not the betting philosophy.
 
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