Bellator 212

Ugh, really agonizing on whether to bet Frank Mir at -130 against Ayala.

Mir is old, has a shot chin, and questionable defense, but he isn't completely shot overall. He still moved around okay versus Fedor and his punches looked good; he didn't have that awful stiffness to his movements fighters that are washed up have.

Ayala is an unskilled brawler who provides huge openings through his reckless forward aggression, reaching straight punches, and amateurish, windmilling overhand right. He also tends to gas out halfway through the second round, although it's questionable the fight will get there.
 
theTKDguy said:
Chandler should kill primus
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Sure, although I'm not betting on him at -450 or whatever ridiculous juice it currently is. (And Chandler is one of my favorite fighters)

Really not sure whether to pull the trigger on old Frankie here or not. Ayala is terrible, but in the heavyweight division, against an old Mir with zero chin and poor defense, just being a mobile, athletic fat dude with an awful but powerful overhand right could be enough.
 
Gust of wind can put Mir down. I hope they don't have the A/C on too high when he makes the walk...
 
burge13 said:
Gust of wind can put Mir down. I hope they don't have the A/C on too high when he makes the walk...
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The flip side is that it isn't terribly hard to knock out Ayala, either. All it took was a simple, short straight right counter by Kongo, not even completely flush or with much of his body weight, and Ayala was out cold.

And as long as you watch out for that crazy windmilling overhand right, what are you left to fear with Ayala? Not much.

I mean, a Roy Nelson with completely shot reactions, ridicuously short arms, and zero defense beyond putting his hands over his head with his face looking down was able to survive for long periods against Ayala standing.

Yeah, he still had a semblance of a chin, but did Nelson absorb any particularly good shot? Not really.

Ugh. This fight feels like a real opportunity, with a juicy line, but there is too much uncertainty.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
The flip side is that it isn't terribly hard to knock out Ayala, either. All it took was a simple, short straight right counter by Kongo, not even completely flush or with much of his body weight, and Ayala was out cold.

And as long as you watch out for that crazy windmilling overhand right, what are you left to fear with Ayala? Not much.

I mean, a Roy Nelson with completely shot reactions, ridicuously short arms, and zero defense beyond putting his hands over his head with his face looking down was able to survive for long periods against Ayala standing.

Yeah, he still had a semblance of a chin, but did Nelson absorb any particularly good shot? Not really.

Ugh. This fight feels like a real opportunity, with a juicy line, but there is too much uncertainty.
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Well I'd prefer to pass on a win than lose but I'm cautious like that so I'll almost certainly pass this fight (lines not even available here yet anyway) but if either get to a decent size underdog I might put 0.5 on but yeah, too much uncertainty, just keep the $ in the pocket.
 
I still don't understand how Mir was favored over Fedor. Lol at him barely being favored over Ayala now. I think I may end up pulling the trigger on Mir in this spot.
 
I can't bet a Mir fight, guy is so far removed from his best years that he's nothing but a liability at this point. This is coming from someone who won their first ever big MMA bet on Mir when he knocked out Bigfoot...

Fight doesn't go distance if available seems like a great bet, though.
 
mir is +120 now on nitrogen, kind of weird his price keeps climbing now
 
On my book he is an underdog 1.90 (EU) against 1.80
 
Mir is that heavyweight who didn't seem to turn the corner like the old farts tend to do - Arlovski reinvented himself (I use reinvented loosely), Werdum held the title, there's other but anyways. HW is an old man's game, I think, because they have to learn how to stay conscious more than learning new technique(s) and strategy like the lighter guys. The game doesn't pass the HW guys by so quickly, that's why Fedor is almost relevant again somehow and why I think JDS could be champ again one day.

And if you look at his win/loss pattern its 4L-2W-3L. Need that next L to make it right.
 
I have learned my lesson. Not betting on Muuuur ever again. Dude should go back to announcing before his brain is totally gone
 
Reign Supreme said:
I have learned my lesson. Not betting on Muuuur ever again. Dude should go back to announcing before his brain is totally gone
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When did you bet on him? Looking at Mir's career lines over the past 10 years or so, he has typically out-performed the odds.
 
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