Bellator 213 Macfarlane vs Letourneau

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It will be cool seeing the Dragon again
 
Wonder what the king mo/ mgreary odds will be.
 
1.03u on Carvalho to win 1u.
My only concern is Machida going back to his "vitamins" and looking super ripped. But at this point he is so passed his prime that is not even fun anymore.
Lyoto has lost his speed, reflexes and chin.

This is Carvalho fight to lose. I know he is not the type of guy that fights for your money tho. He has all the tools to beat 40 years old Machida.
 
Anyone know what book available to Aussies has odds for Bellator? We only get odds on the 'big' Bellator fights that I have seen
 
Is there any reason to believe that Machida won't get very badly beaten?
 
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TITS said:
Is there any reason to believe that Machida won't get very badly beaten.
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Im on Carvalho and I think he has a lot of advantages over Machida but he has a tendency to underperform.
He basically gave up against Mousasi and lacked of activity in both of his fights with Manhoef just to call recent fights.
I know Melvin is a heavy hitter but that could have costed him the first fight and his title (most people scored it for Melvin anyways).

He is too tentative to pull the trigger. I guess it will all come down on what kind of tainted supplements Machida is in and how much Carvalho respects him.
 
Wish my book carried props on these... I'd love to be able to bet on Machida getting slept, again.
 
BetOnline to the rescue with reasonable openers. Had to take value bet on Liam McGeary at +220 vs King Mo, plus Rafael Carvalho as a small favorite at -120 over Lyoto Machida.
 
The thing with Carvahlo is his boxing is pretty poor, against Manhoef most boxing exchanges were 50/50 all of his kos are setup with his kicks, so im not sure if he can actually knockout a guy as experienced as Lyoto with a kick.

Also Carvalho grappling sucks so if Lyoto can catch a kick and take him down he's probably gonna win that round, is gonna be a close decision as always specially with Lyoto being so cautious lately, he's gonna be moving backwards all the time and thats not a good look to the judges, however who are the Bellator judges in hawaii? Are they biased at all?

Carvhalo resume looks pretty poor in hindsight too, wins over Sakara, Schilling, Halsley and Manhoef dont really scream worldclass and in his big step up fight he got smoked, its not like he's training at ATT or anything so we really cant expect him to turn the corner any time soon, he's not gonna be able to pressure Machida with his rudimental boxing so they're just gonna trade kicks all fight and that makes this fight a coinflip. i wanted to bet Raphael at +120 but at -133 im having a hard time pulling the trigger.
Lastly Machida has been fighting very risk averse lately, he knows guys have figured him out so he no longer commits on his predictable counters and just peppers guys with kicks, thats gonna make him hard to knockout, its really a matter of if Carvalho can be smart enough to steal the rounds with his superior athleticism.
 
Letourneau opener at +255 was a great line. Anywhere above +150 is value IMO. Valerie's TDD is a concern but MacFarlane's wrestling not great. If she can make Ilima work for TDs, she'll have a range striking advantage. Other concern is hometown decision. Hawaii hasn't hosted a big mma show in a long time and who knows how bad the judging there is.
 
turbozed said:
Letourneau opener at +255 was a great line. Anywhere above +150 is value IMO. Valerie's TDD is a concern but MacFarlane's wrestling not great. If she can make Ilima work for TDs, she'll have a range striking advantage. Other concern is hometown decision. Hawaii hasn't hosted a big mma show in a long time and who knows how bad the judging there is.
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In what fights was Letourneau taken down? Anywho, I want to bet on the fight, but need to torture myself with a little more tape (ugh) first. The counterpoint to MacFarlane's wrestling being mediocre is that Letourneau's stand-up actually really sucks too, and she couldn't hurt a fly.
 
I see Ilima-Lei getting Valerie down at some point even though Letourneau has decent takedown defense and getting the submission. I think she is going to open some eyes and be considered as one of the best flyweights in the world.
 
PolarBearPaulVarelans said:
In what fights was Letourneau taken down? Anywho, I want to bet on the fight, but need to torture myself with a little more tape (ugh) first. The counterpoint to MacFarlane's wrestling being mediocre is that Letourneau's stand-up actually really sucks too, and she couldn't hurt a fly.
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Letourneau has shown some power in the past. She knocked down and almost finished Moroz in the 1st round. After that fight Moroz turned into a more patient air puncher. She also knocked down Kristina Williams with a punch in her last fight. Letourneau's power comes on the counter, and overall it's looked better in her last few fights.

MacFarlane's striking has gotten better since a few years ago when she just ducked her head and swung blindly in every exchange, but she still can't put together a combination consistently. Val should be able to draw out some punches and counter, and can finish her combos with a kick.

Ilima will need to get Letourneau down early because she will drop rounds at range similar to the last Nina/Claudia if she can't.

Btw, Letourneau was taken down in her fights against Pereira and Kate Jackson (a really telegraphed one too)
 
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