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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 4, 2016.
peer to per betting markets, much better odds than bookmakers. the house takes a small commission on bets, different sites have different structures for commission but in general the odds are still a lot better accounting for this
Thanks. That's really interesting. Is it weird that it somehow sounds less legit than a traditional bookmaker?
New question re: 5dimes. When live betting MMA, what is the difference between live betting "extra" and live betting "ultra" and is it safe to assume that's where you go for MMA live betting?
I'm guessing it's safer because once a bet is matched you've got a guaranteed payout if you win(?). I'm into arbing and I'm always nervous a bet will get refunded if a book doesn't like a price you got on a selection.
I guess it makes sense, most of the public has no idea they exist so there will naturally be some scepticism.
yeah it's a guaranteed payout, books can scrap your bets whenever they want but if you take really good odds they will generally just limit you after the bet is settled rather than cancel the bet, unless it's a line error. and on top of that there is zero limitations imposed on exchanges unlike bookmakers
I always find Live In-Play on the Straight & RIF page on the bottom of the Fighting column below Reduced. It will only appear in the hours before a televised UFC fight card and disappear and re-appear with a refresh during the card itself. I have never once gone to a special live betting page to live bet MMA at 5Dimes.
1BTC = $10000 USD today.
Ok, so, sorry for being thick but I'm just a little fuzzy on this.
Let's say we take Ngannou vs Overeem, and I'm positive (I'm not, but let's say) that either Ngannou wins only by KO or Overeem wins only by decision.
Are "Not N'Gannou by 3 round decision" and "Not Overeem inside distance" equivalent in this scenario?
Edit: More generally, if I choose Not x win by y, does that bar x from winning by w or z?
I'm going to challenge that with this post, methinks.
Is there money to be made from betting favorites? I tend to focus my attention mainly on finding dogs that I think can win, but i'd also like to nickel and dime my way into profits from betting favorites also. Assuming that can be an effective strategy (this mix is how I assume most bettors do it) how do you choose which favorites you're going to wager on?
If you bet NOT Ngannou by decision you win if Ngannou wins inside the distance or Overeem wins by any method. Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you win in the case of a draw as well.
So, to answer your question, no those two options are not equivalent. Essentially:
NOT Ngannou by decision breaks down as:
Ngannou ITD - Win
Ngannou DEC - Loss
Overeem ITD - Win
Overeem DEC - Win
NOT Overeem inside the distance breaks down as:
Ngannou ITD - Win
Ngannou DEC - Win
Overeem ITD - Loss
Overeem DEC - Win
IMO, whether you're betting favorites or underdogs is irrelevant. Bets should be made based on perceived "value". Basically, what that means is figuring out what percentage of the time you believe a particular outcome will happen. Once you've determined that (until you get the hang of it) you can determine the implied probability of a line using a calculator like this one: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html
When the implied probability of a line differs from where you think the line should be set, you typically will want to place a bet. Let's use Ngannou (-270 currently) vs Overeem (+230 currently) again as an example. -270 implies that Ngannou wins 73% of the time and +230 implies that Overeem wins 30% of the time. If you think those percentages are correct, you probably wouldn't want to bet the fight. But, if you believe that Overeem wins 45% of the time, for example, there would be perceived value in his moneyline and you'd probably want to bet it.
Thanks, but I meant equivalent in the sense the both pay if either N'Gannou wins by KO or Reem wins by decision. I know the list of winning outcomes are different.
Gotcha. In that sense then I suppose they would be equivalent, but that line of thinking can be dangerous. No outcome is ever impossible in MMA, as I'm sure you know.
Of course. My thought about it is this: right now on 5D,
Not Overeem inside distance is -485 but
Not N'Gannou by 3 round decision is -1170. I wouldn't take either bet right now, mind you, but you can see there's a huge difference in the line.
"if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action"
Aldo (scorecards = no action) +435
Holloway (scorecards = no action) -635
Is this essentially a straight bet on Aldo at +435 or Holloway at -635, but with the proviso that the bet is cancelled if they see the scorecards? Seems like I'm missing something.
Basically, yes. A bet on Aldo NSC breaks down as:
Aldo wins by any method but decision - Win
Aldo loses by any method but decision - Loss
Any type of decision - Push
I see. Thanks.
what t6p said
How is everyone's betting year been? Up 146 units or so before 219, after getting my s__t together a couple of months ago