Betting Questions | Page 46

Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by EzFlyer, Jan 4, 2016.

  1. Rebound59 金繕い belt

    Rebound59
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    Exchange markets?
     
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  2. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    #902
  3. Rebound59 金繕い belt

    Rebound59
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  4. Rebound59 金繕い belt

    Rebound59
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    New question re: 5dimes. When live betting MMA, what is the difference between live betting "extra" and live betting "ultra" and is it safe to assume that's where you go for MMA live betting?
     
    #904
  5. NinjaCat456 Green Belt

    NinjaCat456
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    I'm guessing it's safer because once a bet is matched you've got a guaranteed payout if you win(?). I'm into arbing and I'm always nervous a bet will get refunded if a book doesn't like a price you got on a selection.
     
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  6. Roads55 Brown Belt

    Roads55
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    I guess it makes sense, most of the public has no idea they exist so there will naturally be some scepticism.

    yeah it's a guaranteed payout, books can scrap your bets whenever they want but if you take really good odds they will generally just limit you after the bet is settled rather than cancel the bet, unless it's a line error. and on top of that there is zero limitations imposed on exchanges unlike bookmakers
     
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  7. JimGunn Red Belt

    JimGunn
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    I always find Live In-Play on the Straight & RIF page on the bottom of the Fighting column below Reduced. It will only appear in the hours before a televised UFC fight card and disappear and re-appear with a refresh during the card itself. I have never once gone to a special live betting page to live bet MMA at 5Dimes.
     
    #907
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  8. Barkus Brown Belt

    Barkus
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    1BTC = $10000 USD today.
     
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  9. Rebound59 金繕い belt

    Rebound59
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    Ok, so, sorry for being thick but I'm just a little fuzzy on this.
    Let's say we take Ngannou vs Overeem, and I'm positive (I'm not, but let's say) that either Ngannou wins only by KO or Overeem wins only by decision.
    Are "Not N'Gannou by 3 round decision" and "Not Overeem inside distance" equivalent in this scenario?

    Edit: More generally, if I choose Not x win by y, does that bar x from winning by w or z?
     
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    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
  10. Rebound59 金繕い belt

    Rebound59
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    I'm going to challenge that with this post, methinks.
    Is there money to be made from betting favorites? I tend to focus my attention mainly on finding dogs that I think can win, but i'd also like to nickel and dime my way into profits from betting favorites also. Assuming that can be an effective strategy (this mix is how I assume most bettors do it) how do you choose which favorites you're going to wager on?
     
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  11. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    If you bet NOT Ngannou by decision you win if Ngannou wins inside the distance or Overeem wins by any method. Maybe someone can correct me if I'm wrong, but I believe you win in the case of a draw as well.

    So, to answer your question, no those two options are not equivalent. Essentially:

    NOT Ngannou by decision breaks down as:
    Ngannou ITD - Win
    Ngannou DEC - Loss
    Overeem ITD - Win
    Overeem DEC - Win

    NOT Overeem inside the distance breaks down as:
    Ngannou ITD - Win
    Ngannou DEC - Win
    Overeem ITD - Loss
    Overeem DEC - Win
     
    #911
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  12. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    IMO, whether you're betting favorites or underdogs is irrelevant. Bets should be made based on perceived "value". Basically, what that means is figuring out what percentage of the time you believe a particular outcome will happen. Once you've determined that (until you get the hang of it) you can determine the implied probability of a line using a calculator like this one: https://www.aceodds.com/bet-calculator/odds-converter.html

    When the implied probability of a line differs from where you think the line should be set, you typically will want to place a bet. Let's use Ngannou (-270 currently) vs Overeem (+230 currently) again as an example. -270 implies that Ngannou wins 73% of the time and +230 implies that Overeem wins 30% of the time. If you think those percentages are correct, you probably wouldn't want to bet the fight. But, if you believe that Overeem wins 45% of the time, for example, there would be perceived value in his moneyline and you'd probably want to bet it.
     
    #912
  13. Rebound59 金繕い belt

    Rebound59
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    Thanks, but I meant equivalent in the sense the both pay if either N'Gannou wins by KO or Reem wins by decision. I know the list of winning outcomes are different.
     
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  14. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    Gotcha. In that sense then I suppose they would be equivalent, but that line of thinking can be dangerous. No outcome is ever impossible in MMA, as I'm sure you know.
     
    #914
  15. Rebound59 金繕い belt

    Rebound59
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    Of course. My thought about it is this: right now on 5D,
    Not Overeem inside distance is -485 but
    Not N'Gannou by 3 round decision is -1170. I wouldn't take either bet right now, mind you, but you can see there's a huge difference in the line.
     
    #915
    Last edited: Nov 29, 2017
  16. Rebound59 金繕い belt

    Rebound59
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    RE:
    "if fight goes to scorecards all wagers are no action"
    Aldo (scorecards = no action) +435
    Holloway (scorecards = no action) -635
    Is this essentially a straight bet on Aldo at +435 or Holloway at -635, but with the proviso that the bet is cancelled if they see the scorecards? Seems like I'm missing something.
     
    #916
  17. t6p Purple Belt

    t6p
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    Basically, yes. A bet on Aldo NSC breaks down as:

    Aldo wins by any method but decision - Win
    Aldo loses by any method but decision - Loss
    Any type of decision - Push
     
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  18. Rebound59 金繕い belt

    Rebound59
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    I see. Thanks.
     
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  19. EzFlyer Senior Moderator

    EzFlyer
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    what t6p said
     
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  20. danareem Orange Belt

    danareem
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    How is everyone's betting year been? Up 146 units or so before 219, after getting my s__t together a couple of months ago
     
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