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BJJ Scout: Conor McGregor Study - Takedown Defence
- Thread starter iYoda
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I thought Khabib was standing just inside range for Barbosa's spinning kicks. He gave Barbosa plenty of time to strike, just not the range. Barbosa got off a couple that came up just short. Connors preferred range matches up much better, Khabib will get hit with the deathtouch and I believe it will change the fight like we've seen time and again. This video only solidifies my opinion, I think Connor sleeps Khabib.
If Khabib gets him down without taking alot of damage Connor is obviously in big trouble. I just think Khabib spends too much time in Connors firing zone and Connor is very ready, willing and able to pull the trigger
If Khabib gets him down without taking alot of damage Connor is obviously in big trouble. I just think Khabib spends too much time in Connors firing zone and Connor is very ready, willing and able to pull the trigger
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The stats don't tell the whole story here. The reason Khabib doesn't absorb a lot of strikes is because he spend virtually all his time in the clinch and on the ground out top pounding people out. Generally the strikes people are throwing against him are bombs trying to catch him as he moves to clinch or shoot and yes, he is good at avoiding those. Which does matter, but doesn't tell you anything about his ability to deal with an opponent who doesn't let him close the distance. Being on top all the time is a great strategy, but it doesn't tell you much about his actual striking defensive ability.
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This observation is irrelevant to the portion of the fight where he has to display striking defense, which is what the stats capture. The rounds don't start with Khabib in dominant position. He could spend 4m55s of a each round on top, but still absorb 100% of the shots that are thrown at him in the first 5s.
So you are admitting he has good striking defense since those are the strikes he has to avoid, because, as you said, he rarely absorbs any while grappling because he's in dominant positions.
Again, this is an objection that would be relevant only if the stat had a small sample size (like saying he has 100% defense against takedowns, but all his opponents combined attempted only one takedown), or if the rounds started with Khabib on top. Since those are not the case and the sample size is large, the stats are telling us exactly the story they are supposed to say.
As for the fact that you want to know how he deals with someone who doesn't let him close the distance, well, I guess we'll have to go with the fact that he could close the distance to anyone he's faced so far.
As explained, it tells us exactly about that.
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That Khabib spends most of the time on the ground is very significant to the number of strikes absorbed metric, though you are correct that it doesn't directly affect striking defense as a stat other than to highlight that he spends very little time in striking exchanges that would really test his defense.
Perhaps a better point for me to make is that Khabib seems to me at least to have a very limited defensive arsenal on the feet. He doesn't move his head much, his footwork is pretty sloppy, he only keeps his hands up intermittently, his main way of dealing with strikes is to throw his own to draw the counter and then shoot. That can work to a point, GSP made a career out of doing that, but just like when GSP came up against a guy he couldn't easily take down in Hendricks and had to fall back on his striking defense he got worked over pretty good (yes, I know he won the fight. He still got beat up badly and IMO deserved to lost). And I don't believe Khabib has anywhere near the level of striking defense to fall back on as GSP; if/when he runs up against someone he can't easily take down I suspect he'll get beaten up badly. I think Ferguson could definitely be that guy.
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His stand up is bizarre, not conventional, but at the end pf the day pretty effective, the threat of the takedown plus his non stop pressure make it difficult for any striker to touch him with combinations, and he is definitely willing to take a single shot to grab his opponent...
Connor have a puncher chance, but Khabib is a nightmare matchup for him. So is Tony by the way.
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It's a duplication of the Ronda effect, where people talked themselves so much into believing the only way to win was a big knockout that they would only throw full power shots, which made it much easier for her to close range.
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I agree. Another issue is just the matchups Khabib has had so far. Has he fought anyone who actually knows how to use a jab to maintain distance (admittedly a surprisingly rare skill in MMA)? Johnson and Barboza are good strikers, but both are very power oriented and like to load up on their shots which plays really well into Khabib's game. I really think that with his length is Ferguson is willing to keep a low base, circle out when pressured to the fence, and just keep that jab in Khabib's face all night he could beat him in what will appear to be surprisingly easy fashion. I wonder too how Khabib will react when someone does eventually try to just box him up without trying to KO him with one shot: will he get frustrated and do something stupid? Will he try to strike at range? Will he keep his head and show a deeper clinch entry game than we've seen from his thus far? It's an intriguing fight.
