Boxing Discussion VII

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i think smith 7-12 at around +350 with a hedge on six has value. i dont think nieky has the volumne nor the power to keep callum off him for 12 rounds.
 
Yep posted earlier but deleted. Just hoping for one bookie to fuck up tbh

I wouldn’t even say ‘fuck up’ 1/8 is hugely over priced and there might actually be value in the o2.5 rounds this time - I haven’t done any tape yet but it is a matter of time before he starts getting rounds in against decent operators.
 
I wouldn’t even say ‘fuck up’ 1/8 is hugely over priced and there might actually be value in the o2.5 rounds this time - I haven’t done any tape yet but it is a matter of time before he starts getting rounds in against decent operators.
I have done tape and DL is slow with no KO’s on record, he got bullied by darch and even knocked down (ended as a draw) Dubois every fight in interviews expresses no interest in rounds, may hit R2 because of DL can clinch a bit and drag it out it can go there like with darch fight.
 
i think smith 7-12 at around +350 with a hedge on six has value. i dont think nieky has the volumne nor the power to keep callum off him for 12 rounds.

Great odds!
Took +300 at betfair for that, 1u.
Also 1u on over 5.5 @ 2.00

Edit : Actually getting a better price by playing "either in rounds 7-9" +450 at skybet and Smith r10-12 +1600 at bet365. 2u on it, f it. And hedge a bit with r6 as well.
 
Wangek @ 2.37 at bet365... while Estrada is 2.02 at Marathon.

Hell, I'm not even looking for a freeroll, I think Wangek is massive value at that odds. I took him yesterday at ~2.00 and though it was great. Guy keeps being underestimated.
Added one more unit.

I'll probably take Wangek KO and Wangek r1-4 as well.
Estrada saying that he wants to KO him is crazy, if he will stand with the guy he will have the same fate as Chocolatito.
 
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Wangek @ 2.37 at bet365... while Estrada is 2.02 at Marathon.

Hell, I'm not even looking for a freeroll, I think Wangek is massive value at that odds. I took him yesterday at ~2.00 and though it was great. Guy keeps being underestimated.
Added one more unit.

I'll probably take Wangek KO and Wangek r1-4 as well.
Estrada saying that he wants to KO him is crazy, if he will stand with the guy he will have the same fate as Chocolatito.

I'll bite at Wangek now. Estrada I think you can argue is the better technical boxer of the two but carries much less stopping power than Wangek, for me Estrada has to box the perfect fight here to win and look sharp all 12 rounds to avoid tasting Wangek's power and I can't see that happening, he looked vulernable in spots against Cuadras.

Will play his ML, will be rewatching more fights before deciding betting the TKO or DEC line however.
 
wangek badly hurt cuadras with a left to the body and now has the right hand that kod chocalito he did not have when he fought carlos. i think wangek was on his way to beating cuadras more convincing than estrada and todays version of wangek is better because of the development of his right hand as was pac when he added the right hand after his move to 140
 
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Wangek @ 2.37 at bet365... while Estrada is 2.02 at Marathon.

Hell, I'm not even looking for a freeroll, I think Wangek is massive value at that odds. I took him yesterday at ~2.00 and though it was great. Guy keeps being underestimated.
Added one more unit.

I'll probably take Wangek KO and Wangek r1-4 as well.
Estrada saying that he wants to KO him is crazy, if he will stand with the guy he will have the same fate as Chocolatito.

i think wangek rds 10-12 at +2000 would have value.
 
Love Dubois and think he's gonna be a world champion next year, but his R1 @ 2.25 and R2 @ 2.37 have no value sadly.

Also, Ronnie Clark @ 12 is crazy. @CR0W Barrett is not a bum, but his opposition has been on a crazy-low level. Ronnie Clark definitely fought the better guys and he was really game against Ward who is levels above Barrett imo. This should be closer to a pick'em, not a 1.04 to 12...

Have now 1u Clark @ 11.50..
 
Love Dubois and think he's gonna be a world champion next year, but his R1 @ 2.25 and R2 @ 2.37 have no value sadly.

Also, Ronnie Clark @ 12 is crazy. @CR0W Barrett is not a bum, but his opposition has been on a crazy-low level. Ronnie Clark definitely fought the better guys and he was really game against Ward who is levels above Barrett imo. This should be closer to a pick'em, not a 1.04 to 12...

Have now 1u Clark @ 11.50..

Jeez you think it should be a pick 'em and he's +1100? You sure? If so im happy to throw some money away.
 
Love Dubois and think he's gonna be a world champion next year, but his R1 @ 2.25 and R2 @ 2.37 have no value sadly.

Also, Ronnie Clark @ 12 is crazy. @CR0W Barrett is not a bum, but his opposition has been on a crazy-low level. Ronnie Clark definitely fought the better guys and he was really game against Ward who is levels above Barrett imo. This should be closer to a pick'em, not a 1.04 to 12...

Have now 1u Clark @ 11.50..


I have to disagree there.

The odds are pretty spot on, no way it should be a pick'em fight. Zelfa is one of the UK'a brightest prospects, many top pundits and trainers actually believe he's the top prospect. For sure it's his biggest test so far but he's managed excellently and they are matching him wisely.

Clark, like I said on his day can cause trouble to most domestic level guys but especially with this jail time factored in I think he'll just look off the pace against Barrett.

Obviously there's no value on betting Barrett's ML, but I also wouldn't be putting my money on Clark against Barrett given the circumstances and on a Frank Warren card.

Best of luck all the same.
 
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What are people's thoughts on Smith +300 (I'm sure there are better numbers around too) to finish in rounds 7-12?
 
Hit on George Groves at +160 last weekend to win 3.2u, time for another underdog on the Superfly II card on HBO this weekend. I like the Thai's power and skill for this price, especially since he won twice for me against Chocolatito:

Srisaket Sor Rungvisai (+130) vs Juan Francisco Estrada $200.00 for $260.00
 
Small bet for tonight
0.5u Diaz-Terrazas to go to distance @ 4.00
 
Lewis Ritson TKO @ 2.63 vs Joe Murray.

Tipped Ritson last time when he was underdog to beat Robbie Barrett for the British lightweight title and he dominated and stopped him.

He's facing Joe Murray here, Murray will come to fight but I have him outgunned here against Ritson who I believe has fantastic potential and as I mentioned first time I tipped him, he does the basics so well and that's what will get him far. He calculated but he also has bruising power and I think we will see it on display again here.

I'd be quick though as I'm sure this line will drop soon and I'm about to place a pretty decent amount of money on it.
 
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