Brexit News & Discussion v6: EU Leaders Go to Battle Over Plugging Post-Brexit Budget Gap

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IMPORTANT NOTICE:

- Get yourself up to speed with the latest information indexed below prior to joining the discussion, as this is a retardation-free zone.

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Brexit Discussion, Part 6:The Divorce Proceedings

Brexit Discussion, Part 5: The In-Fighting



Brexit Discussion, Part 4: The Back-Pedaling

Brexit Discussion, Part 3: The World's Reaction to Brexit

Brexit Discussion, Part 2: The Day After The Vote

Brexit Discussion, Part 1: Counting Down to the Referendum
 
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Brexit Talks Are Almost Here. What Do the EU Nations Really Want?
by Ian Wishart , Boris Groendahl , and Zoltan Simon
March 8, 2017

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Border Force agents check the passports of passengers arriving at Gatwick Airport in London, England.

From safeguarding citizens’ rights to protecting their national economic interests, European Union governments are sharpening their red lines while maintaining general unity as Theresa May prepares to formally withdraw the U.K. from the bloc.

With less than a month to go before the British prime minister triggers Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty to start two years of divorce negotiations, a Bloomberg News analysis shows that, while the EU’s 27 other governments have differing priorities, they remain united in wanting Michel Barnier, the bloc’s chief negotiator, to drive a hard bargain. Brexit isn’t on the agenda of a two-day summit of EU leaders starting on Thursday in Brussels, but it will be the elephant in the room.

Their individual negotiating positions have shifted since Bloomberg’s last survey of the 27 governments in September. At that time, they were insistent that the U.K. couldn’t remain part of the European single market for goods and services if it wanted to restrict the bloc’s principle of free movement by controlling immigration from other EU countries.

May listened. In a speech in January in which she set out what the U.K. expected from Brexit, she said Britain would no longer be a member of the single market. She wants a bespoke customs agreement that would retain the “frictionless” movement of goods across borders between the EU and Britain. But she also talked up the possibility of the U.K. slashing corporate tax rates if she doesn’t get her way and became the first European leader to meet President Donald Trump as she pushes for a swift free-trade deal with the other side of the Atlantic as soon as Brexit happens.

Reflecting that, nearly nine months since Britain voted to leave, the EU’s 27 other countries have added new negotiating positions and refreshed others. Some maintain they want to keep as close ties to the U.K. as possible, others can barely conceal their ambition to punish the U.K. for leaving the club. Practically all say the U.K. needs to be seen to be worse off outside the EU than in it.

Throw into the mix the likelihood of the U.K. being charged about 60 billion euros ($63 billion) for leaving, wrangling over whether it can fully escape the clutches of the European courts and the rule that it must exit the EU without any deal if it isn’t concluded before the deadline, and it’s not hard to see why diplomats are bracing for difficult talks.


Austria
Key issues: ‘No free lunch,’ U.K. budget commitments

Austria insists there should be “no free lunch” for the U.K. government in the Brexit talks and that the country must be worse off after it leaves. While the Austrians don’t have huge bilateral issues, Chancellor Christian Kern predicted a “lengthy debate” about the U.K.’s financial commitments to the bloc in a Feb. 23 interview with Bloomberg. Kern said the EU’s 60 billion-euro ($63 billion) Brexit bill would likely cause “disappointment” in the U.K. as it contrasted with the Leave camp’s pledge to British voters that exiting the bloc would save them money.

Belgium
Key issues: Close ties with Britain, EU unity and integration

Belgium, one of the EU’s most open economies, is primarily concerned that U.K. ties remain as close as possible after Brexit and it stresses the need for a common negotiation by the 27 remaining members of the bloc. Belgian Prime Minister Charles Michel insists that EU governments must resist the temptation to engage in parallel trade talks with Britain and must not succumb to U.K. attempts to divide them. The government in Brussels seeks to shore up the push for closer integration within the EU, at different speeds if necessary, while minimizing disruption in trade with the U.K.

Bulgaria
Key issues: EU development aid, nationals’ rights in U.K.

While only about 3 percent of its exports are destined for the U.K., Bulgaria is among the net beneficiaries of development aid from the EU budget. So along with protection of the rights of the nearly 60,000 Bulgarian citizens living and working in the U.K., the government in Sofia seeks continuation of the EU’s development policy without the U.K. Aid from the EU budget will be one of Bulgaria’s main priorities when it holds the rotating EU presidency in the first half of 2018. Bulgaria may also try to bargain for more aid to deal with refugees crossing the border from Turkey.

Croatia
Key issues: Rights of Croatians in U.K., freedom of movement

Croatia is most interested in preserving freedom of movement for its citizens living and working in the U.K. The government in Zagreb insists that Britain should not be granted any access to the European single market without protection of the bloc’s four freedoms.

Cyprus
Key issues: Rights of Cypriots in Britain, U.K. bases in Cyprus

Given its history and extended ties with the U.K., Cyprus is one of the countries most exposed to Brexit. The Cypriot government wants to ensure the rights of Cypriot citizens living in the U.K. and to have a smooth transition to the new EU-Britain relationship. Cyprus puts equal weight on the rights of its citizens residing and working in two British sovereign territories on the island country, where the U.K. will continue to maintain military bases.

Czech Republic
Key issues: Economic ties, security, Czech nationals in the U.K.

The Czech Republic wants the EU to maintain close relations with the U.K. in trade and security. The government in Prague seeks to preserve as much as possible the current economic ties, with Prime Minister Bobuslav Sobotka vowing to oppose tariff and non-tariff barriers. The premier is adamant that the rights of Czechs living in the U.K. must be protected. The Czechs also want a “fair financial settlement” regarding the U.K.’s contributions to the EU budget.

Denmark
Key issues: Farm, energy exports to the U.K., fishing rights

Denmark’s Brexit Task Force is charged with identifying both defensive and offensive priorities. These include protecting agricultural and energy exports to the U.K., fishing rights in British waters and luring the European Medicines Agency from London.

Estonia
Key issues: EU solidarity, defense, close U.K. relations

Estonia wants “as tight and good future relationship as possible” with the U.K. and will strive to maintain solidarity among the 27 EU nations when the government in Tallinn holds the EU presidency in the second half of this year. Estonia will need to put more effort into other formats of cooperation after the EU framework is no longer there to support ties, according to Matti Maasikas, the country’s chief Brexit negotiator. This is particularly true in the area of defense. Estonia will seek to keep relations with Britain as close as possible given the U.K.’s role in anchoring the NATO contingent in the country and the mixed messages coming from the Trump administration in the U.S. regarding the trans-Atlantic alliance.

Finland
Key issues: EU unity, freedom of movement, EU integration

Finland’s top priority is ensuring EU unity during the divorce negotiations with Britain, with its main concern the balance of power within the EU without Britain. The government in Helsinki is adamant that even limited access to the single market requires the U.K. to accept the “four freedoms” and is on the lookout for opportunities to deepen EU integration post-Brexit.

France
Key issues: No favors for Britain, French citizens’ rights in U.K.

France is adamant that the U.K. cannot expect special favors as it leaves the EU, with French presidential candidates Emmanuel Macron and Francois Fillon vowing exacting Brexit negotiations. At the same time, Marine Le Pen’s calls for a so-called Frexit could prompt the EU to take an even tougher stance to dissuade the French from heading to the exit, too. The government in Paris wants to ensure the rights of French citizens in the U.K. and sort out U.K.-related fishing rights in the post-Brexit world.

Germany
Key issues: U.K. must be worse off, no back-door industry talks

Germany has made it clear that the U.K. will “have to settle for less” since Prime Minister May isn’t interested in staying a full member of the European single market. The government in Berlin wants to ensure a package deal without back-door negotiations by carmakers, banks and other industries. Chancellor Angela Merkel has repeatedly appealed to German business to support her in staying tough on that stance.

Greece
Key issues: Agricultural exports, Greek citizens in Britain

The Greeks’ main concern is trade, particularly exports of agricultural products to the U.K. One of their top priorities is also the preservation of social status for Greek employees and students in Britain. The government in Athens wants to protect rights related to university fees and social security for Greeks in the U.K.

Hungary
Key issues: Trade ties, Hungarians in U.K., EU-Britain relations

Hungary seeks to maintain strong trade ties with Britain and, along with other central European EU members, wants its citizens who are already in the U.K. to be able to continue to work and live there without discrimination. Hungary wants the EU to be fair with Britain as it exits the bloc and to avoid the “suicidal strategy” of alienating Britain, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said in an interview this week. The EU should strive for trade relations that give Britain better terms than other countries offer, he said.

Ireland
Key issues: Close U.K. ties, no hard border, common travel area

Ireland wants to have a relationship as close as possible to its pre-Brexit ties with the U.K. That would include no hard border with Northern Ireland and a common travel area. The government in Dublin also wants the U.K. to have as much access to the single market as possible, though insisting that Britain must allow free movement of EU citizens.

Italy
Key issues: Non-destructive Brexit talks, rights of Italians in the U.K.

Italy wants to make sure its citizens living in the U.K. are treated fairly. Italian Prime Minister Paolo Gentiloni said in February after a meeting with the U.K.’s May that it was important for “negotiations not to be destructive.”

Latvia
Key issues: Security and defense, rights of Latvians in Britain

Latvia’s priorities are the rights of its nationals living in Britain along with security and defense. Latvia wants the post-Brexit U.K. involved in European security policy. The U.K. will have soldiers in Estonia as part of NATO’s policy to reinforce and reassure the Baltic states.

Lithuania
Key issues: Lithuanians’ rights in the U.K., budget commitments

The No. 1 priority for Lithuania is ensuring the rights of its citizens in Britain, followed by maintaining trade ties. It also is important for the government in Vilnius that the U.K. honor its budget commitments regarding various EU programs that will continue after Britain leaves the bloc, not least of all the agreed co-financing for the dismantling of the Ignalina nuclear-power plant, which Lithuania shut down due to safety concerns. Defense and security also are top issues for Lithuania and other countries in the eastern flank of NATO.

Luxembourg
Key issues: Economic ties, financial-services industry

Luxembourg wants to maintain strong economic links with the U.K. and build closer ties with the City of London after Britain leaves the EU. The Grand Duchy is among continental business centers making a pitch for post-Brexit business and Prime Minister Xavier Bettel said in February that “a number of” financial-services companies have shown interest in switching operations to Luxembourg from the U.K. due to Brexit. Luxembourg also is interested in bidding to host the European Banking Authority.

Malta
Key issues: ‘Balanced’ Brexit deal, U.K. worse off after exit

Malta, which holds the EU’s rotating presidency in the first half of 2017, wants a Brexit agreement that is “good and fair,” Maltese Prime Minister Joseph Muscat said in a Bloomberg interview on Thursday. “The deal cannot be superior to membership” in the bloc, he said.

The Netherlands
Key issues: Trade and security, limited Brexit damage to both sides

The Dutch government is most keen to protect its interests in trade and security but also wants to limit the damage as much as possible to both sides in the divorce. With domestic issues taking the fore in looming national elections, Brexit has gotten little focus in the campaign.

Poland
Key issues: Rights of Poles in Britain, defense, development aid

Poland, the biggest exporter of workers to the U.K., is adamant about protecting the rights of the nearly 1 million Polish nationals living and working in Britain. And Poland counts on Britain’s continued commitment to NATO. With Poland the top recipient of EU development funds, the government in Warsaw also will push hard for an arrangement that won’t dramatically cut the bloc’s development-aid budget. While the EU’s largest eastern economy is trying to lure companies including HSBC Holdings Plc and Goldman Sachs Group Inc. to move jobs from the financial-market hub in London, it also wants a deal that won’t hurt its trade with the U.K.

Portugal
Key issues: Preserving U.K. relations, ensuring EU citizens’ rights

Portugal sees the rights of EU citizens in the U.K. as the No. 1 priority for the other 27 nations in the bloc. The government in Lisbon wants to preserve its long-standing bilateral relationship with the U.K. Portugal plans to apply to host the European Medicines Agency in Lisbon.

Romania
Key issues: Close EU-U.K. cooperation, rights of Romanians in Britain

Romania wants to make sure the U.K.’s exit agreement ensures that the rights of Romanians living in the U.K. are fully protected. President Klaus Iohannis has insisted on the importance of a negotiation as soon as possible of the aspects regarding the rights of the EU citizens in Britain. Romania supports a continued close cooperation of the EU with the U.K. after Brexit.

Slovakia
Key issues: Rights of EU citizens in Britain

Slovakia will fight hard to protect the rights of its citizens living and working in the U.K., with Prime Minister Robert Fico saying the Brexit talks must prevent the creation of “second-class citizens” from the nationals of other EU member states now in the U.K.

Slovenia
Key issues: Steadfast EU in Brexit talks, minimal impact on EU budget

Slovenia is steadfast that the EU be firm in the negotiations with the U.K., fearing that allowing any “cherry-picking” could spur nationalist movements in other members of the bloc. The government in Ljubljana also wants to ensure that Britain’s exit has minimal impact on the EU’s budget.

Spain
Key issues: Rights of Spanish citizens in U.K., Brits in Spain

Spain’s main priority is removing uncertainties for the more than 130,000 of its nationals living in the U.K. and about the 800,000 Britons living Spain at least part the year. Keeping trade, tourism and investment flows also is key for Spain as it battles to reduce its budget deficit. Spain is standing by its request to have co-sovereignty over Gibraltar. Any concession to Scotland would raise concerns in Spain that separatists in Catalonia could use it to build their case in the international arena.

Sweden
Key issues: No increase in budget contributions, unified EU in talks

Sweden is most concerned that Britain’s exit from the EU does not lead to an increase in contributions to the bloc’s budget by the remaining member states. But the government in Stockholm says EU countries should avoid pitching individual agendas, which could risk undermining the bloc’s position in Brexit talks. The Swedes have warned that excessively aggressive corporate tax cuts on Britain’s part would complicate the divorce negotiations. At the same time, Swedish Finance Minister Magdalena Andersson argues that the EU shouldn’t try to punish the U.K. in order to deter other EU states from leaving.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-03-09/brexit-bulletin-what-the-eu-really-wants
 
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-39228245

https://www.theguardian.com/politic...reedom-of-movement-says-eus-brexit-negotiator

Britons should keep EU rights post-Brexit - Guy Verhofstadt

Verhofstadt-1.jpg

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
British citizens should be allowed to keep the benefits of EU membership, according to the chief Brexit negotiator at the European Parliament.
Guy Verhofstadt said allowing individuals to keep rights, such as freedom to travel and vote in European elections should be a priority.
The former Belgian prime minister said Brexit had been a "tragedy" and a "disaster" for people in the UK and EU.
He also warned the European Parliament had veto powers over any deal struck.

Mr Verhofstadt said the situation "is a crisis for the EU". "The fact that a large country like Britain is leaving the EU...? It's shown a crisis in the European Union - it's a disaster. That Britain goes out of the EU is a tragedy, a disaster, a catastrophe - you name it."
He said the responsibility now is to look for "a new partnership" between the EU and the UK, but he stressed: "Unfortunately, because of the decision taken by the UK government, it can't be the single market - because they don't accept the full freedom.
"It cannot be the customs union, because they want to make their own trade deals. It cannot be by the European Court of Justice - it cannot be the European economic area."
Pressed on whether a good deal could still be reached that can work for both sides, he said: "That's exactly what we're going to try to do."

Prime Minister Theresa May has indicated that the UK Parliament will vote on the terms of exit before the European Parliament but that the UK will leave the EU anyway, irrespective of whether MPs approve or reject them.
 
Germany demands more ambition from EU partners over post-Brexit future
March 7, 2017

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Germany, the EU's most powerful state, said Tuesday it was dissatisfied with a declaration being prepared for a landmark Rome summit on the bloc's post-Brexit future later this month.

The European Union leaders at 27 - minus Britain's Theresa May - say they want the March 25 summit in Rome marking the 60th anniversary of the EU's founding treaties to be a ringing reaffirmation of EU unity.

But preparations so far have instead highlighted sharp differences.

"I am anything but satisfied with the current state of preparation" of the Rome declaration, Michael Roth, a junior foreign office minister, told reporters in Brussels.

EU leaders must make clear the bloc was more than just the single market but had higher ambitions reflected in shared values of democracy and rule of law, Roth said.

This was especially so for "too many young people who risk being caught up by nationalism and populism," he said as he met with counterparts to discuss the Rome preparations.

Stressing his views were shared by the "whole German government," Roth said the EU had to offer them a real future.

"We have to make clear ... that we stand for growth and employment ... we have to deliver significantly more than has been the case until now."

Germany's criticism comes after Slovak Premier Robert Fico last week slammed preparations for the Rome summit as "pathetic."

The summit was meant to send a clear signal that as the bloc celebrates its 60th birthday it has a future despite Brexit and growing eurosceptic sentiment.

European Commission chief Jean-Claude Juncker last week laid out five options for Rome to consider, ranging from doing nothing, returning some powers to member states to creating a "multi-speed" Europe to allow much faster integration for those who want to forge ahead.

France and Germany favour Juncker's "multi-speed" option but others, such as the Visegrad group of Eastern European states - the Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland and Slovakia - fear they could be left behind.

https://www.thelocal.de/20170307/ge...tion-from-eu-partners-over-post-brexit-future
 
Brexit may offer opportunities for Australia as Britain shifts focus to former colonies
By James Glenday

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For some, Brexit offers a chance to right a "historic wrong", the decision to cut Commonwealth trade ties.
There are few institutions quite as peculiar as the Commonwealth.

A coalition of some of the world's "largest, smallest, richest and poorest countries".

Its exact purpose, apart from acting as a reminder of its predecessor the British Empire, has always been loosely defined and many expect it to wither.

But not those behind Brexit.

Some of the orchestrators of last year's historic vote think now is the perfect time to roll back the years.

For them, the Commonwealth is a diamond in the rough.

Trade deals, it's claimed, will be easily done because of the Commonwealth's common language, similar institutions and "familial bonds".

Negotiations will supposedly serve as convenient "test runs" before Britain enters talks with global economic giants like the US and China.

Interestingly, a number of "Brexiteers" see it as a chance to right what they perceive was a historic wrong — the UK's decision to cut Commonwealth trade ties in the 1970s in order to forge a new life inside the European Economic Community.

And that brings us to "Empire 2.0".

Focus shifts to former colonies

This week has played host to the first meeting of Commonwealth Trade Ministers in London.

With much of the country's recent media cycle dominated by negative stories about Brexit delays, Britain's representative Liam Fox publicised his plans to use the gathering to boost trade ties, particularly with Africa.

He held a fresh round of formal talks with Trade Minister Steven Ciobo, and The Times newspaper has suggested outlines of deals with Australia, New Zealand and maybe even Canada could be sketched out as early as next year.

But the focus on former colonies seems to have irked sceptical British public servants.

They coined the derisive term "Empire 2.0", and its leaking appears to have been an attempt to force their bosses to look further afield.

Many respected economists warn it's laughable to think the Commonwealth could ever replace Britain's access to the EU single market, several countries in Africa are deeply sceptical about the benefits of free trade anyway and the Government's opponents have decried the push as "delusional nonsense".

But for Australia, the mother country's current interest in the Commonwealth could be an advantage.

When it finally leaves the EU, Britain will be keen to ink as many trade deals as quickly as possible to prove itself on the world stage.

The country that ditched us, now really wants us back.

Some officials think it's an opportunity for the Australian Government to negotiate hard and get more of what it wants.

 
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Nicola Sturgeon's last-ditch bid to derail Brexit if Scotland is not offered special treatment in negotiations
By Simon Johnson & Gordon Rayner
12 March 2017
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Nicola Sturgeon has suggested Autumn 2018 would be a good time for another independence referendum

Nicola Sturgeon will threaten to derail Brexit by setting out plans for a second independence referendum unless Theresa May offers Scotland a special deal.

The Scottish First Minister could name the date she intends to hold a new referendum as early as this week, The Telegraph understands, if Mrs May does not bow to her will.

Ms Sturgeon has previously hinted that autumn 2018 would be a suitable time to call a referendum.

The ultimatum is expected to be delivered on Monday morning with the intention of influencing a Commons vote on Monday on MPs being given a “meaningful” say on the final deal offered to Britain by the EU.

She also wants to pile pressure on Mrs May just 24 hours before the Prime Minister hopes to be in a position to formally trigger Article 50.

If the Article 50 Bill is passed, it could receive royal assent as early as Tuesday, clearing the way for Mrs May to begin the two-year Brexit process by informing the EU of Britain’s decision to leave.

But Ms Sturgeon wants the Prime Minister to include in her letter to the EU a series of demands for Scotland to be given special treatment in the Brexit negotiations.

Downing Street has refused to bow to any such demands and is highly unlikely to alter its plans unless facing a parliamentary rebellion over the issue. It comes as:

  •  Boris Johnson insisted Britain would be “perfectly OK” without a deal on Brexit and should be prepared to walk away from EU talks without one;
  • A Tory rebellion on Article 50 that would have seen a Lords amendment enshrined in law appeared to be faltering;
  • MPs affected by rail strikes on Southern, Merseyrail and Arriva Trains North were told to drive to Parliament so they do not miss the crucial vote;
  • Theresa May prepared to use Commonwealth Day to stress the importance of the 52-nation organisation to the UK’s post-Brexit economy.
Ms Sturgeon has called a press conference for Monday morning at Bute House, her official residence in Edinburgh, but in a highly unusual move decided not to make an official announcement of it.

Downing Street on Sunday appeared unaware that the event was taking place, suggesting the SNP intended to spring a surprise for maximum impact.

The First Minister is also likely to be hoping it will bolster support for the Article 50 amendment in Monday night's vote, by suggesting to MPs that they could help avoid the break-up of the Union by using a “meaningful” vote on the Brexit deal to give ground to the SNP.

Ms Sturgeon wants to keep Scotland in the EU single market even if the rest of the UK leaves, which would involve the devolution of nearly every policy area except defence and the macro-economy.

With the UK Government highly likely to reject her proposals, it is thought the First Minister will attempt to blame Mrs May for pushing her towards a second referendum.

The First Minister said last week that autumn 2018 is her preferred time for another vote, when the shape of the Brexit deal becomes known but before the UK leaves the EU.

However, senior Tory sources have said Mrs May is unlikely to allow a vote to be staged until after Brexit takes place in March 2019. They are also wary of holding a vote in the immediate aftermath as this would still allow an independence campaign to be conducted in parallel with the Brexit talks.

Ms Sturgeon has been given a boost by opinion polls which show Scotland divided 50/50 on the question of independence, compared with the 2014 referendum result which favoured staying in the Union by 55 per cent to 45.

Jeremy Corbyn, the Labour Party leader, made his own intervention in the debate by saying it would be “absolutely fine” for Scotland to hold a second poll. Ian Murray, Labour’s only MP north of the border, reacted by angrily accusing him of “destroying the party”.

David Davis, the Brexit Secretary, tried to reassure Tory MPs considering defying the whip on the vote that it is “inconceivable” they will not get a say on the outcome of the negotiations.

In a final plea to the rebels, he said the BBC’s Andrew Marr show: “What I don’t want to do is take a simple Bill which is designed to do nothing more than put the result of the referendum into law… please don’t tie the Prime Minister’s hands in the process of doing that for things which we expect to attain anyway.”
 
Theresa May rules out Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a new Scottish independence referendum before Brexit, as Lords pass landmark Brexit bill following MP's vote
13 Mar 2017

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Theresa May has tonight ruled out Nicola Sturgeon’s plans for a new Scottish independence referendum before Brexit, but postponed triggering Article 50 after the First Minister’s demands caught her by surprise.

In a day of high drama, Ms Sturgeon appeared to wrong-foot No 10 when she announced she would set the wheels in motion for a second referendum next week, and insisted the ballot should take place between autumn 2018 and spring 2019 – while the Brexit negotiations are still going on.

The Prime Minister issued a stern rebuke, telling her “politics is not a game”, and accusing her of “tunnel vision”.

Sources close to Mrs May said she would not allow a referendum until several months after Britain’s EU exit.

Hours after Mrs May’s riposte, Downing Street made the unexpected announcement that the Prime Minister will not now invoke Article 50 before March 27.

The Article 50 Bill is expected to receive royal assent from the Queen this morning, and it had been widely anticipated that Mrs May would choose today to make the historic announcement. Whitehall departments had been told to work to a March 14 deadline.

Downing Street yesterday insisted that the Prime Minister had always intended to wait until the end of the month, but Ms Sturgeon’s announcement left Mrs May scrambling to seize back the initiative.

The referendum row overshadowed Mrs May’s achievement in successfully steering the Article 50 Bill through the Commons last night.

David Davis, the Secretary of State for Exiting the EU, said Britain stands on the threshold of the "most important negotiation for a generation" after Parliament gave Mrs May the power to trigger Brexit.

This evening the Government's Brexit Bill cleared though both Houses of Parliament, paving the way for her to trigger Article 50.

Peers in the House of Lords backed down and accepted the supremacy of elected MPs after they rejected amendments on the issue of giving MPs a “meaningful vote” on the final Brexit deal and guaranteeing the rights of EU citizens.

Speaking after the result, Mr Davis s aid: “Parliament has today backed the Government in its determination to get on with the job of leaving the EU and negotiating a positive new partnership with its remaining member states.

“We have a plan to build a Global Britain, and take advantage of its new place in the world by forging new trading links.

“So we will trigger Article 50 by the end of this month as planned and deliver an outcome that works in the interests of the whole of the UK.”

A threatened Tory rebellion on the issue of giving MPs a “meaningful vote” on the final Brexit deal failed to materialise, with the result that two Lords amendments to the Bill were defeated in the Commons.

Mrs May and Ms Sturgeon now appear set for a prolonged and bitter fight. And Mrs May now faces the unprecedented challenge of negotiating Brexit while attempting to see off a new campaign for Scottish independence.


The Prime Minister said: “The tunnel vision the SNP has shown today is deeply regrettable; it sets Scotland on a course for more uncertainty and division, creating huge uncertainty.

“And this is at a time when the evidence is that… the majority of the Scottish people don’t want a second independence referendum.”

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Drawing attention to Ms Sturgeon’s questionable record on domestic policy, Mrs May told her that “instead of playing politics with the future of our country the Scottish Government should focus on delivering good government and services for the people of Scotland”.

Ms Sturgeon claimed she had been forced to act because Mrs May had refused to consider a special Brexit deal for Scotland that would allow it to remain part of the single market.

Her decision to call for a referendum as early as next year represents a huge gamble; a BMG poll for the Herald newspaper yesterday showed 44 per cent of Scots opposing independence, with just 41 per cent supporting it.

Equally significantly, 49 per cent said there should be no referendum before Brexit, with just 39 per cent wanting one.

The First Minister said she would next week ask the Scottish Parliament to agree the details of a Section 30 order with Westminster – the legal process that allows a referendum to be held.

She argued that by autumn next year the shape of the UK’s Brexit deal with the EU would be clearer, giving Scots a chance to decide between a future as part of the Union but outside the EU, or a future outside the Union but as part of the EU.

If Mrs May refused, the Government would not only have “sunk the ship” for Scotland, which voted overwhelmingly to remain in the EU, but would be “puncturing Scotland’s lifeboat” as well, it was claimed.

Ruth Davidson, the Scottish Conservative leader, said the timetable demanded by Ms Sturgeon would “force people to vote blind on the biggest political decision a country could face” because they would not know the details of the Brexit deal by then.

Although Downing Street would not officially be drawn on the timing of any referendum – or even if Mrs May would allow one – it is understood that Mrs May will put off a ballot until several months after Brexit.

It means she will block a referendum until at least summer 2019, though she is unlikely to refuse one altogether, as doing so would risk stoking nationalist fervour north of the border.

 
Only like 4 of those 27 are actual countries imo.

Some are the size of cities and wield much less economic/business/military strength than their neighbors, but a vote is a vote, and all deals must be unanimously approved by all members.

Now that it clears who wants what, the Brexit team would be wise to pick up the phone to address the little guys' concern and shores up their supports right now before the official negotiation begins.
 
Now that it clears who wants what, the Brexit team would be wise to pick up the phone to address the little guys' concern and shores up their supports right now before the official negotiation begins.

I would assume Germany had the same idea already. We have strongarmed the EU pretty good the last 5 years or so. There is a lot of concession Germany could make to those countries.
Specially, the ones that have a hard time under the budget rules. Outside of a renegade Belgium region I can't see them not falling in line.

The only real issue I could see is with countries like Poland that have a lot of people working in the UK. And Spain probably want's to keep all those UK Expat.
 
bring on #indyref2

Scotland should be free to decide its own future
 
I would assume Germany had the same idea already. We have strongarmed the EU pretty good the last 5 years or so. There is a lot of concession Germany could make to those countries.
Specially, the ones that have a hard time under the budget rules. Outside of a renegade Belgium region I can't see them not falling in line.

The only real issue I could see is with countries like Poland that have a lot of people working in the UK. And Spain probably want's to keep all those UK Expat.

There is one other important thing that the U.K can still provide to Eastern Europe that the Germans and their crumbling equipment could not: Security.

Of course, this could change quickly if the British government continue their cost-cutting rampage after they finish with stripping the Royal Navy to the bone.
 
It's sad to see the Guardian has gone full retard with what they'll allow published on their site.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/14/wales-independence-leave-uk-scotland

It’s time for Wales to start talking about independence

let’s turn our attention to one of the few politicians who welcomed Sturgeon’s comments: Plaid Cymru leader Leanne Wood, who called for a “national debate to explore all of the options, including that of independent Wales”.

In my heart, I long for an independent Wales: I want a country that is not shackled to a political system that barely registers its existence, and indeed an English left that pays it little attention, except to treat it as voting fodder or to express exasperation when it hasn’t voted in a way that holds the rest of the UK back from its most rightwing urges. Wales has been marginalised and even humiliated by Westminster politics, and it deserves better. In turn, Westminster deserves to be rejected by the Welsh.

In practical terms though, the issue of independence is a thorny one. For a start, it doesn’t have the support of the majority of Welsh people. After the Scottish referendum, the figure was as low as 3%. Following Brexit, support soared to 28%, but the majority would still prefer to be part of the UK.

Then there’s the economics. A 2016 report for the Joseph Rowntree Foundation found that a quarter of people in Wales were struggling to make ends meet and poverty was costing the country £3.6bn a year. The main problem here is jobs: in September 2016 about 17% of part-time workers wanted but couldn’t get full-time jobs, and in Blaenau Gwent, the number of jobs per head is half the average for Britain.

Rah Rah Rah! Let's leave England, MAKE WALES GREAT (again?)....until you find out that England is subsidising your entire fucking country. Good plan, moron. Christ knows how this person is qualified to write pieces for a national newspaper.
 
That little porridge goblin sturgeon is like that annoying spoilt cousin that never shuts the fuck up.
 
It's sad to see the Guardian has gone full retard with what they'll allow published on their site.

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2017/mar/14/wales-independence-leave-uk-scotland

It’s time for Wales to start talking about independence









Rah Rah Rah! Let's leave England, MAKE WALES GREAT (again?)....until you find out that England is subsidising your entire fucking country. Good plan, moron. Christ knows how this person is qualified to write pieces for a national newspaper.

lol at Leanne Wood. Has she already forgotten the Tories got more than double the amount of Welsh votes than PC in the last election?
 
I say give everybody what they ask for, then let them deal with the end result.

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Scotland’s independence vote will complicate Brexit in some very interesting ways
By Alison Johnston | March 15, 2017

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On Monday, Scottish National Party (SNP) leader Nicola Sturgeon delivered the political bombshell that Westminster elites were expecting, albeit much sooner than anticipated. She announced that she is introducing a vote to the Scottish Parliament for a second Scottish Independence referendum. Sturgeon anticipates holding the vote sometime between autumn 2018 and spring of 2019. Here’s what you need to know.

The vote is tied to Brexit

The early timing of the referendum is deliberate. It is timed to occur in the middle of Britain’s negotiations to leave the European Union. Last June, 62 percent of Scots voted to remain in the European Union during the Brexit vote, in contrast to the 52 percent of voters who opted to leave from across the United Kingdom, which includes England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland. The leave result allowed Sturgeon to re-open the question of Scottish independence, by saying that Britain taking Scotland out of the European Union against its will represented a “material change” since the 2014 independence referendum. E.U. membership has recently become the focal point for arguments in favor of Scottish independence.

Sturgeon claims that Theresa May’s Conservative government has been unresponsive to Scotland’s demands to retain its Single Market membership. Her desire to hold the referendum before Britain formally leaves the European Union stems from the hope that, by not yet exiting the European Union, Scotland would not have to reapply for membership.

The European Union has poured cold water on Scotland’s ambitions

Even though E.U. membership is the central rallying point for the SNP’s independence campaign, it is not clear that an independent Scotland can stay in. Within hours of Sturgeon’s speech, a spokesman for the European Commission noted that an independent Scotland would be subject to the “Barroso Doctrine.” Under this doctrine, states that come into existence when they secede from current E.U. countries have to reapply for membership status, as membership is politically nontransferable. The European Union delivered similar messages to Scotland during its 2014 Independence referendum, and snubbed Sturgeon and Scottish leaders when they appealed for a special regional deal with the trade block after the Brexit vote. The European Union’s reluctance to accommodate Scotland is a response to states like Spain which worries that its own secessionist movements in Catalonia and the Basque Country could use Scottish independence as a precedent.

However, Scottish membership could have benefits for Europe

This said, Scottish membership has possible attractions for the European Union, which is in the middle of a legitimacy crisis thanks to Brexit, migration, prolonged austerity, and challenges to liberal democracy in countries like Hungary and Poland.

The European Union perceives Britain’s current bargaining stance not only as unrealistic, but also diplomatically hostile. Theresa May has delayed triggering the E.U. Treaty process of withdrawal through invoking Article 50 of the E.U. Treaties, refused to guarantee residency rights to the 3 million E.U. citizens currently living in Britain, demanded that Britain maintain privileged access to European markets while barring free movement of people and not being subject to the European Union’s top court, and threatened to walk away from Brexit negotiations if the European Union offered a “bad deal” (which would automatically mean that Britain had no better access to the Single Market than any other member of the World Trade Organization).

Supporting and accommodating an independent Scotland would provide the ultimate rebuke to May for Brexit. It would signify that leaving the European Union has far greater costs (the end of the nation-state) than those tied to losing access to European markets. It’s hard to imagine an outcome worse for May’s “Global Britain” than the United Kingdom’s formal dissolution. Scottish independence would also bolster unification ambitions for Northern Irish nationalists.

Furthermore, an independent Scotland would provide the European Union with a sympathetic ally in its time of political need. It’s not only Britain that is disillusioned with the European Union. Poor handling of the European debt crisis has increased euro-skepticism in states that were previously highly pro-E. U. (Greece, Spain and Italy). The strains of the refugee crisis have heightened tensions between the EU’s East and West. Donald Trump’s erratic opposition to the European Union has not helped either.

Sturgeon’s SNP party, in contrast, is a highly vocal defender of the virtues of the European Union and unfettered access to the Single Market. Moreover, by recently distancing itself from fellow separatists in the European Parliament, the SNP has demonstrated its desire to accommodate the concerns of other E.U. member-states (namely Spain), rather than antagonizing the European Union as the British Conservatives have done during Brexit and before it (in 2009, David Cameron withdrew the Conservatives from the main right-of-center grouping in the European Parliament, allying with more right-wing fringes).

The Scottish referendum may shape the negotiations

As Brexit negotiations move forward, the European Union may benefit from a Scottish referendum if it happens in Sturgeon’s suggested time frame. Theresa May and hard Brexit Conservatives say that they are willing to bear the economic costs of a ‘hard Brexit,’ in which Britain significantly dissociates itself from the European Union. However, their enthusiasm may be dampened by a brewing constitutional crisis, especially if the European Union starts sending encouraging signals to Scotland. While allowing a seceding region of a member-state to retain its membership would be unprecedented, it wouldn’t be the first time the E.U. accommodated varying degrees of membership status within individual sovereigns. Denmark remains an E.U. member despite the fact that Greenland, which is part of Denmark, opted to leave the bloc in 1985.

Sturgeon’s announcement delayed May’s decision to trigger Article 50 this week. This demonstrates that Scottish separatism is a cause of grave concern to Conservative euroskeptics. If the European Union provides continuing membership to an independent Scotland, or supports a unique Scottish relationship with the European Union, it could potentially disrupt Britain’s constitutional relations, with serious political consequences for the government that ‘lost’ Scotland. This would be playing true hardball — if the European Union believes that Britain has been making extreme threats to win concessions during negotiations, it might, over time, come to see the attractions of doing the same.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/news...very-interesting-ways/?utm_term=.c15c76121c7b
 
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European Commission 'agrees £48bn Brexit divorce bill'
Negotiations for a potential trade deal will only start after Brexit agreement struck, concludes bloc

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Michel Barnier, chief negotiator for the preparation and conduct of the talks with the UK

Michel Barnier, the European Union’s chief Brexit negotiator, is set to demand a €57bn (£48bn) payment from the UK to the leave the bloc.


The figure was purportedly agreed at a meeting of member states, although Sky News reported that France and Germany called for the UK to be charged at least €70bn.

Britain is committed to tens of billions in spending on EU-wide projects up until 2020, as well as the pensions of officials.

Negotiations for a potential trade agreement would only start when the final Brexit bill is reached, the meeting concluded.

It has been the firm position of several senior EU figures that trade talks can only happen after an exit deal is struck and a divorce payment agreed.

Theresa May had held out hope that separate talks and trade negotiations could be held simultaneously.

Mr Barnier announced in December that the UK would be charged £50bn for “outstanding liabilities” upon triggering Article 50, which will begin formal talks with EU leaders over the terms of Brexit.

He told colleagues at the time the that UK must continue to pay “tens of billions” every year into the EU budget until 2020.

The bill includes the UK’s share of contributions to EU pensions, loan guarantees and cost of UK-based projects.

MPs voted overwhelmingly in favour to pass a Brexit bill earlier this week, keeping Ms May on track to meet her March deadline for triggering Article 50.

During the meeting it was also decided that talks for agreeing reciprocal rights for EU citizens would have to start from “ground zero”.

Ms May has come under pressure from within her own party to secure the rights of EU citizens at an early stage of the Brexit talks and has offered assurances it was a priority.


http://www.independent.co.uk/news/u...rexit-latest-eu-divorce-bill-uk-a7573291.html
 
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Brexit: Three key things to watch as article 50 is triggered
Theresa May will pull the trigger on March 29th but real action won’t start until late May
By Cliff Taylor | March 20, 2017

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It is not quite accurate to say nothing much is going to happen after article 50 is triggered next week, but the huge excitement built up around “the date” is likely to prove misplaced. All that is happening is that Britain is following the terms set down in the Lisbon Treaty to trigger formal exit talks. The EU will then take some time to finalise its negotiating position.

Expect the real action to start in late May or early June, when the two sides sit down to start the talks. The first potentially contentious issue on the agenda will be the price Britain must pay to “buy itself out” of existing EU commitments. Suggestions from the EU side that this bill could reach €60 billion will be strongly resisted by Britain.

This will be a “long game”. Britain will not actually leave the EU until early 2019, ideally having tied up a mutually acceptable exit deal. It is then likely to be some years thereafter before it has finalised a trade deal with the EU, if indeed it is able to do so.

Up to early 2019, Britain will remain a full EU member and nothing will change beyond the exclusion of its representatives from some EU meetings where the approach of the remaining 27 to Brexit is discussed.

So what do we look out for as article 50 is triggered and in the immediate aftermath?

1. What hints does it give on the British negotiating position?

The contents of the letter which will be sent to formally trigger article 50 on March 29th are unclear. However, beyond the likelihood that it will express the desire to reach a deal with the EU, it is unlikely to give too many hints on Britain’s negotiating stance.

British prime minister Theresa May is due to make a statement to the House of Commons the same day. Among the issues of interest here will be any reference to the negotiations on how much Britain will have to pay to exit the EU.

Another crucial point will be how Britain approaches the idea of a transitional deal to cover the period after it leaves the EU, but before a new trade deal is negotiated. Britain had said it hoped the trade deal could be agreed, at least in outline, during the two-year period when the exit talks were being finalised.

However, most observers feel a trade deal will take much longer. If Britain leaves without a transitional deal, it could lead to the immediate imposition of tariffs and other trade barriers. So this is an important one for Ireland.

2. What indications are there of the EU negotiating stance?

President of the European Council Donald Tusk has said he will issue draft Brexit negotiating guidelines to the other member states within 48 hours of the UK triggering article 50; in other words, before the end of next week.

EU leaders will then meet to discuss these, probably in April, and a final negotiating mandate will be agreed, probably by the end of May or early June.

There are vital issues here for Ireland: the future of the Border and the Common Travel Area and the ability of Irish people to work freely in the UK and vice versa. The Government will want due recognition of Ireland’s priorities in the initial negotiating position.

The mood music will also be important. Ireland’s interests are best served by a smooth negotiating process, a transitional deal for trade after 2019 – before a final agreement is reached – and a final deal which allows trade to continue as freely as possible in the long term.

Demands for a large exit fee for Britain and a view in some member states that it must be “punished” for leaving to discourage others thus carry dangers from an Irish viewpoint.

3. How will markets react?

Britain may have given advance notice of triggering article 50 in part to avoid any sudden upset to market sentiment. In reality, it is an event which everyone knows is coming, and the market is well aware of the difficult negotiations to come.

However, the negotiating game will now begin, and attention will be paid to whether there is any reaction on foreign exchange markets in particular, with sterling tending to weaken on any indications of a difficult Brexit. Weaker sterling makes life harder for Irish exporters and is a key risk for Ireland.

While the UK economy and financial markets have survived the period since the Brexit vote better than expected, the actual start of negotiations and the highlighting in the months ahead of the many difficult issues to be sorted out are likely to challenge economic and market sentiment.

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...to-watch-as-article-50-is-triggered-1.3017343
 
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