Congress warned: NKorea EMP would kill '90% of Americans'... | Page 4

Discussion in 'The War Room' started by PHATV, Oct 12, 2017.

  1. Ling Ling Green Belt

    Ling Ling
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    Large Power Transformers and the U.S. Electric Grid Infrastructure Security and Energy Restoration Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability U.S. Department of Energy United States of America Department of Energy 2012 Highlights: “Large Power Transformers (LPTs) are custom-designed equipment that entail significant capital expenditures and long lead times due to an intricate procurement and manufacturing process.” “Because LPTs are very expensive and tailored to customers’ specifications, they are usually neither interchangeable with each other nor produced for extensive spare inventories.” “The average lead time for manufacture of an LPT is between five and 16 months; however, the lead time can extend beyond 20 months if there are any supply disruptions or delays with the supplies, raw materials, or key parts.” “The United States has limited production capability to manufacture LPTs.”
    EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The Office of Electricity Delivery and Energy Reliability, U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) assessed the procurement and supply environment of large power transformers (LPT)5 in this report. LPTs have long been a major concern for the U.S. electric power sector, because failure of a single unit can cause temporary service interruption and lead to collateral damages, and it could be difficult to quickly replace it. Key industry sources—including the Energy Sector Specific Plan, the National Infrastructure Advisory Council’s A Framework for Establishing Critical Infrastructure Resilience Goals and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation’s Critical Infrastructure Strategic Roadmap—have identified the limited availability of spare LPTs as a potential issue for critical infrastructure resilience in the United States, and both the public and private sectors have been undertaking a variety of efforts to address this concern. Therefore, DOE examined the following topics in this report: characteristics and procurement of LPTs, including key raw materials and transportation; historical trends and future demands; global and domestic LPT suppliers; and potential issues in the global sourcing of LPTs. LPTs are custom-designed equipment that entail significant capital expenditures and long lead times due to an intricate procurement and manufacturing process. Although the costs and pricing vary by manufacturer and by size, an LPT can cost millions of dollars and weigh between approximately 100 and 400 tons (or between 200,000 and 800,000 pounds). Procurement and manufacturing of LPTs is a complex process that requires prequalification of manufacturers, a competitive bidding process, the purchase of raw materials, and special modes of transportation due to its size and weight. The result is the possibility of extended lead times that could stretch beyond 20 months if the manufacturer has difficulty obtaining certain key parts or materials. Two raw materials—copper and electrical steel—account for over 50 percent of the total cost of an LPT. Electrical steel is used for the core of a power transformer and is critical to the efficiency and performance of the equipment; copper is used for the windings. In recent years, the price volatility of these two commodities in the global market has affected the manufacturing conditions and procurement strategy for LPTs. The rising global demand for copper and electrical steel can be partially attributed to the increased power and transmission infrastructure investment in growing economies as well as the replacement market for aging infrastructure in developed countries. The United States is one of the world’s largest markets for power transformers and holds the largest installed base of LPTs—and this installed base is aging. The average age of installed LPTs in the United States is approximately 40 years, with 70 percent of LPTs being 25 years or older. While the life expectancy of a power transformer varies depending on how it is used, aging power transformers 5 Throughout this report, the term large power transformer (LPT) is broadly used to describe a power transformer with a maximum capacity rating greater and or equal to 100 MVA unless otherwise noted. 36 are subject to an increased risk of failure. Since the late 1990’s, the United States has experienced an increased demand for LPTs; however, despite the growing need, the United States has had a limited domestic capacity to produce LPTs. In 2010, six power transformer-manufacturing facilities existed in the United States, and together, they met approximately 15 percent of the Nation’s demand for power transformers of a capacity rating greater than or equal to 60 MVA. Although the exact statistics are unavailable, global power transformer supply conditions indicate that the Nation’s reliance on foreign manufacturers is even greater for extra high-voltage (EHV) power transformers with a maximum voltage rating greater than or equal to 345 kV. However, the domestic production capacity for LPTs in the United States is improving. In addition to EFACEC’s first U.S. transformer plant that began operation in Rincon, Georgia in April 2010, at least three new or expanded facilities will produce EHV LPTs starting in 2012 and beyond. These include: SPX Transformer Solution’s facility in Waukesha, Wisconsin, which completed expansion in April 2012; Hyundai Heavy Industries’ new manufacturing facility, which was inaugurated in Montgomery, Alabama in November 2011; and Mitsubishi’s proposed development of a power transformer plant in Memphis, Tennessee, which is expected to be completed in 2013. The upward trend of transmission infrastructure investment in the United States since the late 1990s is one of the key drivers for the recent addition of domestic manufacturing capacity for power transformers. Between 2005 and 2011, the total value of LPTs imported to the United States grew by 188 percent (or at an annual growth rate of 34 percent) from $284 to $817 million U.S. dollar. Power transformers are globally traded equipment, and the demand for this machinery is forecasted to continue to grow at a compound annual growth rate of three to seven percent in the United States according to industry sources. In addition to replacing aging infrastructure, the United States has needs for transmission expansion and upgrades to accommodate new generation connections and maintain electric reliability. While global procurement has become a common practice for many utilities to meet their growing need for LPTs, there are several challenges associated with it. Such challenges include: the potential for extended lead times due to unexpected global events (e.g., hurricanes) or difficulty in transportation; the fluctuation of currency exchange rates and material prices; and cultural differences and communication barriers. The utility industry is also facing the challenge of maintaining experienced in-house workforce that is able to address procurement and maintenance issues. The U.S. electric power grid is one of the Nation’s critical life-line infrastructure on which many other critical infrastructure depend, and the destruction of this infrastructure can cause a significant impact to national security and the U.S. economy. The U.S. electric grid faces a wide variety of possible threats, including natu- 37 ral, physical, cyber, and space weather. While the potential effect of these threats on the electric power grid is uncertain, public and private stakeholders of the energy industry are considering various risk management strategies to mitigate potential impacts. This DOE report, through the assessment of LPT procurement and supply issues, provides information to help the industry’s continuous efforts to build critical energy infrastructure resilience in today’s complex, interdependent global economy
     
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  2. BVG Double Yellow Card

    BVG
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    I'm not reading that fucking wall of shit.
     
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  3. Ling Ling Green Belt

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    Okay I'm out. I'll let the Sherdog scientists take over.
     
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  4. Trotsky Brown Belt

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    I'm vaguely aware of the topic.

    But I think you would have to have an EXTREMELY dim view of American resourcefulness and competence to think that destroying the power grid would cause 90% to die, when we are the most resource-rich country in the world. It's not as if national logistics, such as the transport of food and medicine, always had the benefit of internet and radio communication.

    30 percent? Sure. But 90? That seems....extreme.

    EDIT: Also, I haven't read through this topic, so I am not meaning to pour anything on.
     
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  5. TapoutforSprawl Green Belt

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    I don't understand why no electricity would turn all of America into uncontrolled murdering savages. 90% is such an insane ridiculous number. You could cover all of America in anthrax and that wouldn't even kill 90%. This is such garbage.
     
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  6. TSO Silver Belt

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    And it would only be no electricity until a few hours had passed.
     
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  7. casrot Green Belt

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    <TrumpWrong1>

     
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  8. Rav1nHunter Brown Belt

    Rav1nHunter
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    Is this thread not about NK ? Why do I care what the sun does if America gets fucked so does everyone else
     
    #68
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  9. Anung Un Rama The Right Hand of Doom

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  10. nhbbear Duty Belt

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    Well, that is scary shit. But I am not sure n Korea could pull that off. Hell,I and surprised n Korea does not blow themselves up on a daily basis.
     
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  11. TapoutforSprawl Green Belt

    TapoutforSprawl
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    The rest of the world wouldn't just sit around as the US reverted to the stone age. 90% is so absurd. We would recieve aid at a level never seen before.
     
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  12. m52nickerson EXTERMINATE!

    m52nickerson
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    That is because it is.



    JUDI DENCH: (As M) Set off a nuclear device in the upper atmosphere, creates a pulse, a radiation surge that destroys everything with an electronic circuit.

    BRUMFIEL: That's from the James Bond film "GoldenEye." There is something Bond-like about a bomb that would create a power surge and fry all our modern gadgets. So I Skyped Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear weapons expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies and asked him, could North Korea really do this?

    JEFFREY LEWIS: (Laughter).

    BRUMFIEL: Take that as a no.

    Well, he would finally be able to keep up.
     
    #72
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  13. m52nickerson EXTERMINATE!

    m52nickerson
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    The truth is that EMPs from nuclear blasts are not that strong. In experiments they found that cars can survive them pretty well.
     
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  14. Cuauhtemoc Red Belt

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    I agree but isn't russia number one by far in resources? They're yuuge.
    I don't think even a full scale nuclear attack by Russia would kill 90% of people, something closer to 70%.
     
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  15. nhbbear Duty Belt

    nhbbear
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    I was referring to the nat geo video. Post apocalyptic literature, movies, tv shows have always been my favorite genre....until i has kids. I used to think about what I would do, how would I care for the animals, stuff like that. Now the thought of something real happening makes me sick to my stomach.
     
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  16. Trotsky Brown Belt

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    As far as untapped natural resources, probably. But in terms of operational resources, enterprise, and food supply, we're definitely top. Arguably, the best country to be in, in such a scenario, might be China just because they have comparable agricultural production and government control over the supply to control the market and prevent malfeasance. But they're extremely export-oriented, so I don't know how much of that is on-hand at any given period.
     
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  17. HIMBOB Steel Belt

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    Losing less aint winning.
     
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  18. nostradumbass Silver Belt

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    I remember the last time we had a bad storm and lost power for several days. The entire neighborhood started killing and eating each other within hours.
     
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  19. Space Yellow Card

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  20. irish_thug Gold Belt

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