Dana White's Tuesday Night Contender Series- Season 2

Anyone on Trevino? His game seems pretty similar to Ak47's (only watched one of his fights so far) and hes training at tam which is wayyyyy better than Gracie Barra.

Fun fact that's probably not that relevant but I was at Vanderfords fight with Ben Fodor aka Phoenix Jones. I use the term "fight" pretty loosely. Austin did everything he could to avoid being hit.

Ben is a local "superhero" here in the pnw. He likes to dress up in some of his spare time and do the crime fighting thing. He was spending too much time on that shit and not enough time on tdd lol. I remember the fight mostly being Van avoiding Bens winging looping bombs, taking him down and holding position while doing just enough work to keep from getting stood up.

Probably only gonna get to do research on this fight for the whole event so I was wondering what side ya'll were on here.
i will be on Trevino too just waiting to see if the line gets better.. could see some money coming in on Vander just becourse of his physique and him being PVZ's man :D
 
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could see some money coming in on Vander just becourse of his physique and him being PVZ's man :D
Smh what a dope lol. He must have been high af on that Oregon weed to be making a statement like that.
 
Anyone on Trevino? His game seems pretty similar to Ak47's (only watched one of his fights so far) and hes training at tam which is wayyyyy better than Gracie Barra.

Fun fact that's probably not that relevant but I was at Vanderfords fight with Ben Fodor aka Phoenix Jones. I use the term "fight" pretty loosely. Austin did everything he could to avoid being hit.

Ben is a local "superhero" here in the pnw. He likes to dress up in some of his spare time and do the crime fighting thing. He was spending too much time on that shit and not enough time on tdd lol. I remember the fight mostly being Van avoiding Bens winging looping bombs, taking him down and holding position while doing just enough work to keep from getting stood up.

Probably only gonna get to do research on this fight for the whole event so I was wondering what side ya'll were on here.

I like Trevino here but Van is very heavy on top and will have about 15lbs on Trevino. He's a NAIA national champ with a folkstyle background. In space he desperately dives at your ankles from 10' out, but if he can pressure you against the fence he's shown a powerful double. Trevino outwrestling Nash is a big confidence boost, and no doubt he's the better overall MMA fighter. Currently have .3u Trevino +145 and plan to add if odds improve.
 
I like Trevino here but Van is very heavy on top and will have about 15lbs on Trevino. He's a NAIA national champ with a folkstyle background. In space he desperately dives at your ankles from 10' out, but if he can pressure you against the fence he's shown a powerful double. Trevino outwrestling Nash is a big confidence boost, and no doubt he's the better overall MMA fighter. Currently have .3u Trevino +145 and plan to add if odds improve.

lol i promise i wrote my breakdown before reading this, glad we are on the same page though.
 
What does it say about the person setting these lines that they're still going ahead as if COCONUT BOMBZ is fighting? So they haven't watched the weighins, or even looked for any sort of news about the next show for the last 48 hours?
 
Trevino itd +275 holy shit does Austin telegraph his takedowns. His head gets dangerously low too. No ones made him pay for it yet but he could very well eat a knee or something diving like that.
 
Let's be honest-- Antonio Jones is 33 years old and sucks. His only reason for existing is to showcase Shahbazyan who looks like he could be a future star, but may be too raw to enter the UFC right now

-225 is not that much juice for the talent disparity
 
Let's be honest-- Antonio Jones is 33 years old and sucks. His only reason for existing is to showcase Shahbazyan who looks like he could be a future star, but may be too raw to enter the UFC right now

-225 is not that much juice for the talent disparity

Do you have tape on Shahbazyan? Found nothing but a fight a couple years ago vs a can.
 
My breakdown on Barber vs Colleen:

Maycee Barber is a 20 year old prospect with a very exciting and aggressive fighting style. It's clear that the UFC would like her to be a fresh new face at women's strawweight and this fight seems to be booked as a showcase fight for Barber as she is the largest favorite on the card. On the feet Barber throws a variety of kicks, punches, and knees with a very unorthodox style. Barber is a black belt in karate. On the mat he is constantly working for a submission or a reversal from the bottom or landing heavy ground and pound from the top.


Jamie Colleen is a kickboxer but the kicks are few and far between. Colleen is an exceptionally patient counterpuncher, preferring to stay in range and snipe away at her opponents with right hands once she has gotten their timing down. Very few women in the strawweight division can land a punch as devastating as the one she landed on Danielle Taylor which absolutely flattened Taylor in their first fight. She has a very abnormal amount of late round finishes (2 in round 3, 1 in round 4, and 1 in round 5) which speaks to her patience, cardio, and finishing ability. However this means she is a bit of a slow starter, dropping early rounds to both Tiffany Masters and Calie Cutler.


It's understandable that Colleen is a 4-1 underdog here. Her takedown defense in the early frames against Masters and Cutler mostly consisted of her trying and failing at fending off takedowns and surviving. Against Barber, one would expect Colleen not to be able to survive as Barber's grappling is at a much higher level. However, there's a decent chance that it doesn't get to the mat at all. While a lot of Barber's fights goes to ground where Barber has mostly dominated (except in a very close fight with Mallory Martin which could've gone either way), Barber's opponents have been the ones to take the fight to the ground. Perkins and Martin landed takedowns at will against Barber only to be swept or put in a triangle. Thompson and Esquivel for some reason decided to fall flat on their back on their own and let Barber mount them.


Another thing to consider is the inexperience of Barber's opponents. The worst of her opponents, Esquivel, had the most wins (2). While Barber dominates on the mat, it's unclear whether the fight will actually go there if Colleen stays balanced and doesn't put herself there. Barber's striking is singularly focused and isn't designed to lead to takedown attempts. Furthermore, Barber throws a lot but on train-tracks and she has eaten very heavy counter shots from much worse strikers. Colleen will have better hands and more power than anyone Barber has faced. Colleen also has very good footwork which was very apparent in her fight against Calie Cutler but wasn't there against Masters. Colleen stated in a recent interview that she went into the Masters fight 6 months after a knee surgery, and that she reinjured it during the fight. This may explain the slightly more plodding footwork as well as the inability to stuff early takedowns. Despite the injury, Colleen showed what she's capable of in the 3rd round of that fight.


With a big grappling advantage and competitive striking, Barber is the rightful favorite. But her exciting finishes and aggressive style has attracted way too much hype (and, more importantly, chalk) given her lack of defense and questionable ability to wrestle. Now she is taking a step up in competition in her 5th fight in a little over 12 months. Colleen would have been an attractive dog even at +300. But now that she's healthy and has focused her efforts full time into MMA, +380 is impossible to resist stabbing at.
 
Do you have tape on Shahbazyan? Found nothing but a fight a couple years ago vs a can.

All the tape I found and frankly it's all I need at -226. He finishes every fight very quickly and Jones is 33 years old and terrible. There's no way he comes out and looks like the worse fighter and fairly often he will steamroll.
 
Aus book let me put a U on Trevino at +170. Works for me
 
All the tape I found and frankly it's all I need at -226. He finishes every fight very quickly and Jones is 33 years old and terrible. There's no way he comes out and looks like the worse fighter and fairly often he will steamroll.
Jones actually beat a former UFC fighter albeit a low level one but still.. while Shahbazyan opponents combined record is something like 20-50 lol good chance even Jones would be able to finish those bums in r1 :D Shahbazyan may very well steamroll but there is also a chance he will just fold if he faces some adversity.. skip for me
 
1u on Trevino at +140
0.3 on Jones at +185
0.25 in total ($5 each) on this round robin you see below
 

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Just took Pilarte for 0.8u @+250, crazy odds! Pilarte has a lot of advantages here and I can see him getting a submission victory.

Also thinking about Shahbazyan and will probably go small on Colleen.
 
Jones actually beat a former UFC fighter albeit a low level one but still.. while Shahbazyan opponents combined record is something like 20-50 lol good chance even Jones would be able to finish those bums in r1 :D Shahbazyan may very well steamroll but there is also a chance he will just fold if he faces some adversity.. skip for me

Damn, good point. I didn't realize the Narvaez fight exists. Just watched the full thing.

Narvaez dominated on the ground for the first 2 rounds. Jones grappling game is genuinely terrible.

Then round 3 Jones won the standup pretty clearly and the standup disparity only grew in rounds 4 + 5 in spite of Narvaez reach advantage. Which says something good about Jones. He's pretty quick, has good cardio, fairly decent at avoiding getting hit.

But at the same time he's not a crazy good standup fighter. Striking exchanges were fairly even vs Ike Villanueva, and Edmen striking looks sharp and technical. BEST case this is even-ish standup fight for 2 rounds, Antonio cardio takes over round 3 for a 2-1 decision.

Whereas there are so many ways Edmen can win:

--Take him to the ground and submit him
--Take him to the ground and outgrapple him for an entire round or two for points
--Edmen *could* land more strikes
--Could land equal/fewer strikes but get more points for them being more damaging
--KO

So yeah, there's a bit of risk that Edmen has hidden flaws and Antonio isn't a total can. But -225 isn't that much juice for a kid like Edmen who has a vastly superior offensive repertoire and is FAR more likely to win easily. Probably should be like -300
 
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