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Discussion in 'MMA Betting Discussion' started by JimGunn, Dec 4, 2017.
GLORY 49 Rotterdam
Rotterdam Ahoy, Rotterdam, ZH
Saturday - December 9th, 2017
GLORY: REDEMPTION - (UFC.TV PPV, 4 PM ET)
Heavyweight World Title Bout:
Jamal Ben Saddik +235
Rico Verhoeven -315
Over 1.5 -160
Under 1.5 +120
Light Heavyweight Bout:
Danyo Ilunga +150
Michael Duut -190
Over 2.5 -165
Under 2.5 +125
Featherweight No. 1 Contender Bout:
Zakaria Zouggary -105
Petchpanomrung Kiatmookao -135
Over 2.5 -230
Under 2.5 +170
GLORY 49 SuperFight Series - (UFC FIGHT PASS, 1:30PM ET)
Middleweight World Title Bout:
Alex Pereira +140
Yousri Belgaroui -180
Over 4.5 -140
Under 4.5 +100
Brian Douwes +195
Anderson Silva -275
Over 2.5 -140
Under 2.5 +100
Ismael Londt +130
D’Angelo Marshall -170
Over 1.5 -150
Under 1.5 +110
Alim Nabiyev +335
Nieky Holzken -505
Over 2.5 -160
Under 2.5 +120
I don't want to sound self-important here, but I bet every one of these Glory fights at the openers, some of which I could not believe, and they all moved 30-35 points instantly. I think 5Dimes has me pegged as a Glory kickboxing expert, because I can't imagine that anyone else was refreshing their browser and slamming these as soon as they were posted, lol.
We always make good money based on your Glory knowledge
What plays do you have for this weekend?
guessing you're on belgaroui jim?
Glory 49 & Redemption are the cards I am most looking forward to this weekend, and the action starts late Saturday morning so it should conveniently be ending about the time that the UFC prelims start. On the Glory 49 portion of the card on ESPN3 there are no odds, but I expect Tyjani Beztati to be the most likely to win the Lightweight Contender tournament. On the Superfight Series the greatest value of the card in my opinion is on Alim Nabiev at the +335 opener vs former welterweight champion Nieky Holzken. Nieky looked less than impressive in his last couple of fights has been vocal about being disenchanted with his treatment at Glory recently. I also really like the over 2½ rounds prop at -160 or thereabouts, because it's been quite a while since Nieky stopped an opponent or got stopped. In a heavyweight bout Ismael Londt is coming back off a torn bicep, surgery, recovery and year long layoff and he's fighting a former training partner and friend in D'Angelo Marshall, so even with two big guys, I like the over 1½ at -150 here. In the middleweight title fight that headlines the Superfight Series portion of the card, I smashed Yousri Belgaroui at the opener of -180 against reigning champion Alex Pereira. Belgaroui has height and size over Pereira and is very aggressive. I also like the under 4½ in the title fight at +100 expecting a stoppage by Belgaroui and the prop also acts as a hedge in case Pereira's boxing catches Yousri somehow.
On the Redemption PPV portion of the card the curtain jerker with Zakaria Zouggary vs Petchpanomrung Kiatmookao is a title eliminator in the featherweight division. Zouggary opened as a slight -105 underdog where I bet him, but the line has since switched to make the experienced Thai the favorite now. Petch's kicks are powerful but Zouggary has great boxing and the ability to close distance rapidly, which I like to shut down Petch's kicking game to some extent and probably win a decision. This could be FOTN. Glory veteran Anderson "Braddock" Silva now faces late step in opponent Brian Douwes since Xavier Vigney abruptly announced his retirement from kickboxing just days before the card. Douwes should be in reasonable shape since he was already training for another fight in January, but I think the super short notice and skill set makes Silva a rightful favorite at -275 in this heavyweight bout despite the fact that he has more losses than wins in his long tenure in Glory. I also like the under 2½ at +100, expecting Douwes to be out matched and stopped here. In the co-main event, a re-match of a FOTY contender from 2016 featuring LHW's Michael Duut and Danyo Ilunga has a lot to live up to in order to equal the first bout that Duut won in an extra round. There were multiple knockdowns by both fighters, so despite the fact that the last fight went four rounds, I'm taking a chance on the under 2½ rounds prop at +125.
Finally, in the main event Rico Verhoeven is a rightful favorite to Jamal Ben Saddik, even though Jamal knocked Rico out years ago in 2011 when Rico was a young up & comer. In the years since however, Rico has become the clear number one heavyweight kickboxer in the world on a long win streak. Jamal is a cancer survivor who may not yet be done with treatment, so the true state of his health is a bit of a wildcard. On the positive he is a 6' 9" giant who is difficult to get in on and a very hard puncher, so this could be a dangerous fight for Rico. Rico said in interviews that he wants to punish Jamal for his disrespectful behavior at the press conferences by beating him for five rounds. So rather than picking a side here, with the size and dangerous nature of the opponent I really think this goes a few rounds and therefore the over 1½ has value at -160.
Glory 49 & Redemption Risk $2090.00
Rico Verhoeven/Jamal Ben Saddik Over 1½ (-160) $160.00 for $100.00
Rico Verhoeven/Jamal Ben Saddik Over 1½ (-190) $190.00 for $100.00
Michael Duut/Danyo Ilunga Under 2½ (+125) $100.00 for $125.00
Anderson Silva (-275) vs Brian Douwes $275.00 for $100.00
Anderson Silva/Brian Douwes Under 2½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00
Zakaria Zouggary (-105) vs Petchpanomrung Kiatmookao $105.00 for $100.00
Yousri Belgaroui (-180) vs Alex Pereira $360.00 for $200.00
Yousri Belgaroui/Alex Pereira Under 4½ (+100) $100.00 for $100.00
Alim Nabiev (+335) vs Nieky Holzken $100.00 for $335.00
Alim Nabiev (+335) vs Nieky Holzken $100.00 for $335.00
Alim Nabiev/Nieky Holzken Over 2½ (-160) $160.00 for $100.00
Alim Nabiev/Nieky Holzken Over 2½ (-190) $190.00 for $100.00
D'Angelo Marshall/Ismael Londt Over 1½ (-150) $150.00 for $100.00
Damn definitely should've played the over instead of the under in silva vs douwes.. these guys keep trading in the pocket and clinching up right after smh wasting hella time..
Unders are always risky in kickboxing with such short three-minute rounds, but with Douwes undersized and on short notice I thought it was feasible. I'm on both overs and unders on the other fights depending on how I see them playing out.
Solid +300 dog in Nabiev, wish I listened to your advice Jim and bet some money on him, just thought no way a former champ like Nicky loses this one
EDIT: looks like Nabiev is going to win unless Nicky gets a finish in the 3rd round. Damn looks like solid dog money about to pay out
fml I was waiting for unibet to settle my One Championship bets and misses that dog play.
Went 1u for Nabiev @ 3.75, 1u Zouggary @ 1.80 and 2u Silva + Belgaroui @1.96. Did Nabiev win? What about other results?
PS: Thanks again, Jim!
Nabiev wins via decision
Damn solid boxing from alex! under 4.5 hits
Great comeback by Pereira. Under 4½ hedge partially ameliorates the loss on Belgaroui.
Head kick ko shoulda bet on the thai guy vs zouggary, being trained in muay thai myself, he was slightly better odds too